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BTRWx's Thanks Giving

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    Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

    Unfortunately not happening with that MJO phase 4 wave. The pacific ocean has been really cutting our winters short the last 4 years with a pacific firehouse, -PNA and the MJ0 lag in the MC. 

    I've been wondering about that. How are we getting the polar vortex to swing through during a strong phase 4?

    Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, arlwx12 said:

    Oh NOOO! LWX has put a foot on your bandwagon too! (And a foot off it...)

    (snip) 

    A vigorous shortwave in the southern stream will track across Texas
toward the northern Gulf of Mexico Friday night. This will cause
an area of low pressure to form along the Gulf Coast. This area
of low pressure will track northeastward along with its parent
shortwave during the day Saturday into Saturday night, rapidly
intensifying as it does so. While there is still considerable
spread with respect to track six days out, model guidance
generally has the primary low associated with this system
tracking somewhere between the eastern Ohio Valley and the
Carolina coastline, with the majority of guidance showing a
track just off to our south and east. While uncertainty with
respect to track and resultant impacts remains high, the
potential is there for locations to the east of the mountains to
receive their first major snowstorm in two years.

Ensemble guidance (especially the EPS) showed a significant
increase in probabilities for snowfall across the region with the
00z cycle last night. At the moment, the greatest chance for
significant snow appears to be near and west of the Blue Ridge,
while lesser but non-zero probabilities for significant
snowfall exist further east. The track of the low will be
critical, and an all rain scenario is still on the table to the
east of the Blue Ridge. If that were to occur, there could
potentially be issues with flooding as well. We`ll continue to
keep an eye on this system over the upcoming week, as the
potential is there for it to have a significant impact across
the entire forecast area.

    (snip)

     

     

     

    It's been a long time since we've read something like that! Drool worthy!

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