BTRWx's Thanks Giving

For what it's worth, CPC shows March Phase 8 tends to be drier than phase 1. Unfortunately, phase 2 is when we get the good stuff.

5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Look how far north the primary was!

Also interesting to see the ridge over the Rockies versus the west coast.

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Would be incredible to get a repeat of that.

Strange how the snow maps don't mirror the reports.

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I'm scanning the KU 500mb now.

Look how far north the primary was!

3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

march 1958 storm was crazy

I'm scanning the KU 500mb now.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But most of those big March snow analogs were from the 50's and 60's...its legitimate to wonder if those same patterns would produce the same results now.  

For what it's worth I went back and read some on the 1958 storm. D.C. was just above 4" while nw had over a foot.

Correction: D.C. was just under 5" and BWI had 8.4".

I'm very interested in the correlation PSU showed. That was one of the best pattern correlations I've seen! There's no way we miss out! Too bad we can't see how well computer models would have done leading up to the 1950s and 1960s March storms.

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Look west. ridge starting to pop. 

Starting to initialize mjo at 8, hmm. 

Don't we need the ridge farther west?

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Snow map are correct 2 % of the time below 45 degree North 

 

 

Right, they are usually a lot more than what happens.

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Almost identical to 0z.

womp womp lowlands, congrats western highlands, NW burbs still in the game.

How do you come to that conclusion?

Why don't the Isobars line up with the darker shades of blue? What's the difference?

Note: This was 0z

How great is it that this would be within a couple days of the 30th anniversary of the storm of the century!

2 hours ago, Cobalt said:

To help put things into perspective

The GEFS is more consolidated than the EPS?

Kind of sucks to see the NAO trend upward just in time for phase 8.

Very pretty fat flakes

Flurries in Alexandria

Maybe the MJO can come out of the null circle back to phase 7 and then swing out.

How many of you are members of the Weather Band and if so what do you think of it? They claim to have a portal for career advice, but all that I've seen is simply a list of people to contact with specific questions. I feel like such a community is an interesting idea, but needing a membership feels weird to me. I read a discussion of an amateur masters student specifically forecasting severe weather outbreaks based on sunspot activity while the research is still ongoing. The discussion was in response to why we are having a low clipper season. It seems completely irrelevant. The Weather Band discussion page seems to be slim picking.

23 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

 

So far ahead of you.

We need a forum meet up.

I posted the same thing last week and everyone skipped over it. We never did the College Park get together that was discussed a few years ago.

Most of us will not see anything wintry tomorrow.  Don't let that upset you.

Why is everyone posting 10:1 maps?

Any climate scientists on these forums?  I would like their thoughts about this study. https://juniperpublishers.com/ijesnr/IJESNR.MS.ID.556039.php "The Relationship Between Mid-Ocean Spreading Zone Seismic Activity and Global Temperatures Remains Strong Through 2018"

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

The 12z Euro control leaves energy behind just like GFS. This is the progression we want models to show if we want a good snowstorm. We pray

Wish we could get Op to show this






.

Can we please ban single ensemble maps?

Most of us will likely not see accumulating snow as long as the PNA is negative, the NAO and AO are positive, and the MJO is heading towards phase 3, 4, 5.

This is so sad to see.