BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Why?

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I doubt the cold pool is a problem.  It's not not expansive and not very cold while surrounded by AN water temps. The -PNA otoh is.

These runs make me think that SE ridge is real. Of course, it can change in 6 or 12 hours, which is a true testament of the accuracy of these so-called "predictive" models. Times like now when I wish we only had 936-1212! Lol

Doesn't the cool pool help enforce a negative PNA?

I don't understand why so many mets expect a good pattern while the Gulf of Alaska has a cold pool along with a negative PNA.  

Nice burst right over D.C.!

Just starting here in Alexandria. I'm loving the band stretching from just southeast of Baltimore! 

This will be a fun hour!

Radar slowly blossoming just west of 95.

6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Euro looks great!

Euro looks great!

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Love to hear it!! Dynamics is fun and very very important. It provides a foundation for understanding. You’re doing great!! 

Unfortunately, that's  the one class I am missing. 

The lightning threat needs to continue to tick south. 

Why does CWG always update before euro data?

Just now, WxUSAF said:

CWG bumped up a little

 

It's been that  way.

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Updated. 1” line moved significantly NW

 

How is that 1" for D.C.?  lmao

Same with Baltimore. The numerical values don't match the gradients. 

Is this ant different from other clippers? Are we just lucky in the positioning?  

35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The LWX AFD effectively highlights the strong dynamics at work. It would not surprise me to see someone between Baltimore and Philly/S Jersey get half a foot of snow from this.

Impressive afd! 

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Funny enough though, the AIFS hates Friday and likes Sunday better.

That model is horrible!

I was very hesitant about this winter until I saw this! Big blowup of the warm blob!

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

Interesting.... 23z HRRR with the heaviest totals just south of DC.

It's near the end of its run. It's not very reliable at that range.

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Lock it in for Friday. 

That model has not been good at the surface.  

I think 12/10 is the one to watch.

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Back to the storm for next week.  Latest EURO EPS and AI ensemble.

People keep telling me the AIFS ensemble is great, but those snow totals have been very suspect.  

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

So cool!

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Tomorrow night really should be better… need to hope the flare doesn’t come too early. 

Last year was only one night.

Any flakes on radar or just more bugs?