BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Why does lwx say there's a "non-zero chance for accumulating snow" in the metro, but frozen precip is not in the official forecast?

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Although we may see a milder spell first half of december, the STJ is there. Nino is starting to flex.

Hopefully it's just the first couple weeks of December. The MJO should become favorable the later half of December.

Great trend in the central Pacific!

Perhaps the pattern relaxes for December 5th? The mjo is hinting at circling through the warm phases to begin December. But that could be a very good sign for phase 7  just in time for Christmas if it does the full swing!

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Well those warm Christmas are usually a result of the fact that the cold December pattern has to break at some point. Remember when it snowed every December 5th?

Sure do!

Yet, this is Christmas Day those same years. lol

32 minutes ago, Ji said:

what if you just do moderate. 1997/2015 were like super ninos

Interestingly, moderate December temps are way below!

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

what if you just do moderate. 1997/2015 were like super ninos

Hasn't this year been between moderate and strong?

So how do we avoid a 1997 disaster?

Hopefully it won't be too long before we can more accurately correlate a -NAO and El Nino winters.

Is there no thread for winter 23-24?

3 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

The latest flash flood warning issued for SE FfxCo is personally interesting...they typically mention the areas/neighborhoods AROUND where I live (e.g., Franconia, Lincolnia, Fort Belvoir, Mount Vernon) but this time they actually included our neighborhood, Hayfield. And we are indeed having a "round two" that is rivaling yesterday afternoon...maybe not horizontal rain, but definitely diagonal, and I can fully believe the 1-3" that NWS says is possible within the next hour.

I'm just on the other side of 495 right on the edge. Yesterday was the most difficult drive of my life!

9 hours ago, MDstorm said:

Here's the CFSv2 site:   CFSv2 Seasonal Climate Forecasts (noaa.gov)

Here's another good link:  Climate Prediction Center - NMME Forecasts of Monthly Climate Anomalies: 3-Month Mean Spatial Anomalies (noaa.gov)

Thank you! Those don't look very modoki-like for djf.

15 minutes ago, stormy said:

You're lucky that I was paying attention:  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/SSTs/

Thanks, but I'm looking for one in map form.  A couple sources are saying they see models showing a possible modoki nino.

What's the best link for charts for predicted sst anomalies?

I'm not trying to downplay this, but I'm interested to see how well the line holds together without upper 90 temperatures.

The most recent link I have for reanalysis data will only plot maps up to 2015.  Is there an updated link? https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.v2.pl

4 hours ago, stormy said:

"The amount of soot and sulfate particles over the Atlantic Ocean was much higher in the mid 20th century than now; by blocking and scattering sunlight, those particles temporarily cooled the planet enough to counter act greenhouse gas warming.  That cooling is also thought to have temporarily suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic".

I was referring to cleaning the air. That has only happened regionally.

2 hours ago, stormy said:

Thanks CAPE!  That was an interesting read.

Here is another interesting read that partially disputes the assumption in your piece that hurricane frequency and intensity are increased by warming.  https://www.sciencenews.org/article/hurricanes-frequency-danger-climate-change-atlantic        Also, the possibility exists that cleaner air today may be exacerbating warming compared to the mid 20th century.  Did we actually increase global warming by cleaning up the air??

The more we know the more we realize that we have a lot to learn.

That effect would be too localized.

Does a nino give us above average or below average summer precipitation?  I've seen conflicting data on this.

Would anyone be interested in having a subforum for space weather discussions? I had friends asking me about a recent geomagntic storm and the data out there is sparse. I would love to read some expertise on the topic.

20 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS Wave 1 late Thursday through Friday widespread soaker and chilly... but we need the rain.

Man, if only we had this pattern a couple months ago!

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Long duration soaking rain would help the drought 

Good signs for a Nino.

For what it's worth, CPC shows March Phase 8 tends to be drier than phase 1. Unfortunately, phase 2 is when we get the good stuff.

5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Look how far north the primary was!

Also interesting to see the ridge over the Rockies versus the west coast.