BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Just saw this COMET position shared on facebook! https://ucar.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UCAR_Careers/job/COMET-Project-Manager-II_REQ-2024-39-1?fbclid=IwAR3WEuZ4U9fSaegaIkCKkvPnApJXV75VPsGM-SAgxMRCmDGSfJUsMeYmGTU

1 minute ago, Ji said:

so you think the ensembles will help the storm become snowier?

I'm saying the look right now is not good.

1 hour ago, Ji said:

dont laugh lol...the euro has us starting as snow next weekend!

It's close to something big, but we need a lot of help from ensembles. 

The modki is finally showing!

We may slice through phase 8, but phase 1 is not impossible with that next pass!

If we're in the 40s now, then we shouldn't have any problems getting back down into the 30s after next week.

I strongly believe the lack of a modoki nino killed our winter.

HRRR is not a horrible model for last minute trends.

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

the snow is somehow sticking to some things here, despite a temp in the upper 30s (it is dropping pretty quickly now)

No sun

First flakes in Alexandria. Tough to tell if rain is mixing in.

The hrrr actually went from 0 to a coating.

LMAO

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Cue Tom Patty’s I won’t back down

That's worse than 18z.

3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

0z GFS is hilarious...a stripe of 0.5" QPF+ just north of DC

It trended north again.

4 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

We were forecasted 1-3” in Columbus, OH. We are at 6” and counting. Banding made a huge difference. My point is you can’t trust the models completely. 

That's so awesome to hear! Congrats!

6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Why did you cut off the key?

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’m at our place in McHenry for this.  But stop listening to the worry worts, too much teeth gnashing over the HRRR.

It's not just the hrrr that's hurting us.

Man, this sucks. We lost about half our qpf today.

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Heavy snow starts in a couple hours and cliff diving still happening. Dear God

Actually rain starts in about 3 hours.

18z euro is D.C.'s only hope.

Anyone else having trouble loading local snowfall from the new NBM link that was shared earlier?

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with a lot of this. But why did you expect a +pna in a -PDO Nino?  There have been 4 Moderate/strong -PDO Ninos. None featured a +pna. Mean for the 4 is below. 

3 of the 4 were some of the snowiest winters in history here including 2010!  The one exception was 1973 which was a +QBO and has a crazy +++AO

So if we agree that was an outlier and toss all 3 examples of a -pdo moderate or stronger Nino featured both a -pna and a shit ton of snow.  
 

Actually if you simply take all moderate to strong ninos the mean is a -pna.  It’s only weak modoki ninos like 2003 and 2015 that feature a +pna.  But Baltimore averages 40” of snow in -QBO ninos despite the fact the pna is typically negative.  
 

I never expected a +pna this winter.  My analogs that produced a mean snow of 42” were  -PNA city.  There is something else going on.  It’s not the pna because the pna was negative in past epic snowy ninos.  

 

That's really interesting.

Was eps a dud?

28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This could theoretically work, -PNA, EPO ridge (cold air source), big NAO block keeping lows from cutting (track under the region). 

Do you really expect a cfs model for 3 weeks away to verify?