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BTRWx's Thanks Giving

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Posts posted by BTRWx's Thanks Giving

  1. 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

    I agree with a lot of this. But why did you expect a +pna in a -PDO Nino?  There have been 4 Moderate/strong -PDO Ninos. None featured a +pna. Mean for the 4 is below. 
    3 of the 4 were some of the snowiest winters in history here including 2010!  The one exception was 1973 which was a +QBO and has a crazy +++AO


    So if we agree that was an outlier and toss all 3 examples of a -pdo moderate or stronger Nino featured both a -pna and a shit ton of snow.  

    Actually if you simply take all moderate to strong ninos the mean is a -pna.  It’s only weak modoki ninos like 2003 and 2015 that feature a +pna.  But Baltimore averages 40” of snow in -QBO ninos despite the fact the pna is typically negative.  

    I never expected a +pna this winter.  My analogs that produced a mean snow of 42” were  -PNA city.  There is something else going on.  It’s not the pna because the pna was negative in past epic snowy ninos.  


    That's really interesting.

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