kvegas-wx

Woke up and checked the cams in Stuart.  An underwhelming inch or so?  Radar right at midnight looked quite promising but the results didnt align, so far.  Back to sleep!

100% snow in Stuart Va....2 miles north of the state line is where the farm is.

Finally a few flakes mixing in at the farm in Stuart.  Still light, but I can see them on the cams.

Temps still holding around 38° on the north side of the precip in Stuart.  All rain on the security cams at 1400' @BornAgain13@Buddy1987.  Once the rates come up I expect the hammer to drop and the moisture feed looks good for several hours.  

I get double the fun tonight being in Cincy. I get to hang out in the Ohio Valley /Lakes forum and bank a couple inches here tonight and then watch all my fellow SE forum weenies cash in back home.  I will say this, the level of weather dictionary going on in the OH Valley forum is off the charts.  These guys are saying things I've never even heard of!  I'll stick to our puking snow references.  

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

How much do you have man!?

He's literally jackpotting as we speak.

Just now, NEGa said:

Still pouring here. 2” and counting lol

More proof that rates overcome.  Cannot be disputed.

The trajectory of the precip is an absolute dream for quite a few in the forum.  Somebody is cashing in tonight.

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Yea I think people just feel burned recently and are naturally pessimistic by it. Runs look good for that area. 

Game on, we'll see!

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

NAM is amazing here 

If this verifies I'll have 5-7 hours of blizzard in Stuart to get my 5-6".  This wont verify.  I'll grab a security cam pic of my wet ground at midnight tonight.

Please tell me Blacksburg is going to scratch this WSW for the vast majority of their coverage area?  I mean really, calling for 4-8" Surry, Stokes, Yadkin, etc is just silly!  At least drop the totals.  I thought they jumped the gun earlier today when they hoisted it.  

Edit - I see they moderated the accums in their 4:16am Warning update.  Much better calls now geographically speaking.

18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

According to the Euro , you won't be bringing back no cold

I hear ya, but I'm not buying it.  No strong SER in place, a very strong arctic core pushing south where high temps in Cincy will be 11° on Friday with lows of zero??  C'mon, when the HP is that strong we always feel it in the Carolinas.  And this isnt a one and done, this is a week long, or more,  event as forecasted up here.

Something isnt adding up down south.

Having just driven from GSO to Cincy, let me instill some cold, hard ground truths about the snow coverage maps that were posted yesterday.  They're wrong.....bigly.  There is barely a drop of snow on the ground north of Beckley, WV.  A stray shady spot, thats it.  Nobody is going to benefit from ground cover keeping temps down, period.

Now to offer some hope for cold, it's already colder than a witches titty here.  Wind is howling all through the mountains of WV and VA, feels like low 20s here in Cincy.  Its coming folks.  You organize the QPF while I'm gone this week.  I'm bringing a truckload of cold back with me on Friday. 

In the meantime, keep your sanity about tomorrow night. 

5 hours ago, magpiemaniac said:

Southeaster weather poster:  “Can’t trust these models. Not enough good atmospheric sampling due to fewer airplanes flying because of covid.”

Also southeastern weather poster:  “Boom!”

 j/k

LOL.  Well I have nowhere else to go with our constant shutouts.  Models say its gonna be there, but it aint!  Kind of like radar attenuation....but with models!!  

I cant wait to banter about hurricanes again.  We need a snowacane!

A couple hundred more miles NW and I'll end up getting your storm in Cincinnati next week, which is where I'll be!  LOL.  Watching the board go from no storm, to a track shift, to starting a thread, to a mini-boom, to cold rain for most outside of elevation has been enjoyable today.  If I were to change my career to mental therapy and advertise solely to this forum I'd be rich!

I promise when I come back next Friday I'll have that 5 degree air in Cincy hitched right to my F250 and I'll drag it right on through the mountains just for you guys.  Be patient!!

17 minutes ago, Chuck said:

Found this link dated 27 Oct 2020. It references the loss of airline data being as much as 90%.

“One of the many unfortunate aspects of the COVID-19 crisis has been the severe loss – of up to 90% - of aircraft-derived meteorological data as a result of the steep decline in airline operations and passenger flights since March 2020,” said WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas.

WMO and IATA Agree to Improve Aircraft Meteorological Reporting

That's simply incredible.  I would love to hear @msuwxMatthew's take on this.  I'm sure it has been discussed by the red tag community.  This would make an enormous difference in the accuracy of any forecast (temp, humidity, wind) leading up to an event.  And it would affect all models.

9 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

I posted an article in the whine thread

Found it, many thanks!  I would love to understand where we are with this issue today knowing flight schedules are still at a massive deficit vs pre-March 2020.  The article stated that the used data points (reports) were down between 40-66% in March of 2020 and had the greatest impact on accuracy inside of 24 hours, but also degraded accuracy all the way out to 7 days.  Highly directional assumption, but in an area prone to forecast busts over 2-3 degrees (southeast forum), this could certainly explain a lot.

4 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

GFS para 850s trend over the last 3 runs

Two more adjustments like that and you'll all be traveling to Snowshoe WV for the Superbowl Party.  

This conversation around lack of upper air data due to Covid airline traffic reductions has me very intrigued.  Has this been quantified anywhere?  Did we lose 50%, 70% of our inputs?  What is the likely downstream impact of that missing data on each model?  Is one model more suspect to error now?  I'd love to read any articles if anybody has one.

Just now, cbmclean said:

I don;t remember anything of note from Feb 2016 so I am guessing this disappeared into nothingness.

And so will next weekend, but sshhhhhh....

1 hour ago, btownheel said:

It would lock the entirety of the state down for 10 days. Hell, most of SC, VA and GA too.


.

As long as we can stop wearing masks afterwards I'm down.  Bring on the blizzard!!

2 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

lol, that wind is going to have to blow really hard to get that cold air to NC

I'm going to go where the cold is at in OH all next week.  I'll see if I can hitch that PV to the F250 and pull it back home for the monster next weekend.  I'll be a legend on this board.  

7 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

lol, I was talking about pack

Ha!  Gotcha.  Pack is definitely a pre-emergent fan!

21 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

In the words of a former poster, "Time to place my order for pre emergent"

@BIG FROSTY isnt a former poster, he's just busy mowing lawns and putting out his pre-emergent!  Grass will be growing by March 1 this year.  I bet he already took the plows off the trucks.

48 minutes ago, WSchew said:

Pretty classic virga signature from FCX. Notice how there’s nothing really showing up over Surry, Stokes and Rockingham counties but then radar returns magically appear in the counties just south of there?Well the FCX radar dome already sits about 2800’ elevation, so about 2000’ above the Triad. If you incorporate 0.5 deg tilt, the beam height over the Triad is roughly 7000’ above the ground. This reduces to about 6000’ as you move north into those VA border counties. So, this is telling us the flakes are falling, but sublimating in a dry layer between 6k-7k feet. Pretty typical with NW flows.

Ok, wow.  You could have just said 2021 and left it at that.  I can relate to that.  Next time you feel like getting all technical and wordy, just substitute "2021" and heads will be nodding in agreement.  

In 2022, this would be an amazing explanation and beyond appreciated, if you catch my drift (not snow drift, we dont have those here).

17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There is nothing to complain about with that system other than the fact it’s more than a week out 

I may have to add this as a tagline quote to my profile.  You could literally type this into any winter thread from Dec 1st to March 15th and be accurate.  

This year we can't even be certain 24 hours out.  And there are a few posters here that are so badly jinxed they couldn't get snow sitting under a polar vortex with snow guns pointed at their front yard.  Somebody would still forget to turn on the water.  

I'll retreat to the whining thread again.