kvegas-wx

POURING SNOW in Stuart.  Much to my major surprise, the ground caved almost instantly.  I will have accums in 15 minutes at this rate!

Snowing now in Stuart, VA.  Big fat flakes!!

6 minutes ago, 85snowline said:

Where is Stuart?

VA.  About 8 miles across the state line north of Winston.  1500' elevation.

Down to 33° at 7am here in Stuart.  Changeover should be this hour.  Would love to see a snow squall but not expecting any accums.  Everything is absolutely drenched!  

Relocated to the farm in Patrick Cty about 5 miles across the border.  1500' elevation.  Its all I got.  Models implying 2-4 across the county so the cams will be rolling.  55° and dead calm, patchy heavy fog too.  

Just like my Bengals today, lets get this win baby!!

Snow breaking out deep into MS and eastern AR.  Verification looking pretty good.....so far.

2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Lord that cut off is Sharp!


.

Looking at the 6-7" wedge from Patrick County down into Stokes thinking that this is the early season event that will crush our enthusiasm and remind us all how poorly the weather models have performed over the last couple of years with these marginal events.  I'll be driving up to the farm in Stuart tonight and back home to Kvegas tomorrow at lunch.  I will be living proof of model verification within 20 hours.

Now approaching 80° in the Triad on January 1st.  Oh how this rubber band is going to snap back.  At this rate March could be the new dead of winter around here!

5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I hope the ski resort owners also own a few golf courses.  What a stunning pattern!

This is impressive for sure.  Not a day or two in the heat, but the consistency and durability of the warmth almost nationwide.  We've had warm Dec days here and there.  But this is a full on trend.  It does make you wonder....where on earth are they having consistently below avg temps and how deep in the cold are we gonna be when the rubberband finally snaps back.  Fab Feb could be really interesting this year.   

5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Becoming pretty typical here to punt an entire winter month without a single threat. Onto January 

C'mon now, we all know winter doesnt arrive in the SE forum until Feb 29th.  It will be here in due time.  

Three years ago today I was knee deep in snow drifts in the Triad.  

6 hours ago, ILMRoss said:

12z gfs says that there is no point really checking into this thread for a while unless you want to see some writhing and gnashing of teeth. see yall around christmas

For those that subscribe to the Joe Bastardi "snapback" theories (assuming they originated with him) this could have all the makings of one heckuva Jan/Feb.  We are tremendously short on precip and cold air.  If we cut the deficit on both at the same time, well, you know......

Patterns change, and the GFS ain't spittin the truth, I'm just sayin'....

I think the last time I even thought about weather was during Hurricane Ida.  Have we actually had any weather since then?  Is weather event related or does it actually happen all the time?  Is 60° and sunny with a slight breeze actually considered weather?  Do weather persons actually get paid to report on these conditions?  Isn't this really the equivilent of a tree falling in the woods and us questioning if there was a noise?

So many questions.....

Now THATS a weenie forecast!  

I'll be sitting on my rented deck, beside my rented fire next weekend flying my drone all over the place from 4,300ft on up.  I would be ecstatic to have some snowflakes mixing in with any remaining color.  Man I hope I timed this long weekend correctly!

19 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

They are getting snow on top of Beech ski mountain.  First flakes of the season.

Awesome!!!  We have an Air B&B booked for 4 days next weekend up there and I'm drooling over those snowflakes on my 10 day forecast.  This is getting good!

2 minutes ago, Doc Jon said:

from scanner - water 10 feet high in Jefferson Parish

If accurate, this is not flash flooding.  There is water intrusion from an unknown source.  I dont want this to be a Katrina scenario.  But damn if it isnt eerily similar.  

Purely looking at the traffic maps the evacuation looks pretty anemic.  Usual backups on I-10 but thats about it.  I really hope these folks know what they signed up for.

1 minute ago, jburns said:

The improvements are indeed impressive but there are still unknowns.  One of my favorite quotes comes from a 19th century German Field Marshall named Helmuth von Moltke. “No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength.”   I tend to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. With all the changes that seem to be happening with our climate I think that might be the best way going forward.  It seems to me as if 100 year events are happening every decade.

Ah yes, Professor Burns has entered the chat.  Thanks for imparting that wisdom Burnsie!

Regardless of flooding, part of the reason you evacuate (beyond death and destruction) is the lack of ability to provide basic services, food, water, gas, electricity for extended periods of time for large populations.  Nobody needs to drown to have storm related misery, riots, death and destruction.  As someone supplying emergency services equipment and support during my day job, I can tell you the disaster services industry is in a huge pickle right now and is lacking equipment because the gov't just sucked it all up for Afghan camps in the last 96 hours.  I have personally supplied Quantico, Goodfellow AFB, Fort Bliss and Fort Dix this week.  

These folks wont be getting much FEMA help I can assure you of that.

1 minute ago, user13 said:

People arnt going to leave until they see the storm is a cat 3

And they have the potential to relive 2005 all over again.  (I said potential)  I know for sure that this is on blast all across the gulf region.  Hopefully the tone of the broadcast alerts is enough to move some people out.  

This has disaster written all over it and folks will be waking up to their Cat 3 tomorrow morning with nowhere to go.

31 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I have no idea what I've done to get badges and points   

If you all are having any issues with the upgrade, please let me know. I know there is trouble with the mobile version missing messages and notifications for some. They're working on the bugs, so hopefully we'll be out of newbie status soon. 

Love the new look and colors, very clean.  Still figuring out whats new....other than the humiliation of the badge thingy.  

GSP issuing the warnings ahead of that storm.  Likely radar indicated, cant find any reports of TOG.

Just about time to put this one in the archives.  There's nothing left to get on the long range.  Spring has sprung.  

The 90 day outlooks for Oct/Nov/Dec are just 6 months away!  Now get out there and get those weeds people!!  We may need a spring rain whining thread.

Tornado warning on campus at UNCC but it looks south of campus to me.

Sirens going off