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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    I think for the rest of this winter if the models are north with a system like they were with tomorrows system a few days ago and with significant accumulations in the metro and then lose the system or suppress it forecasters shouldn't discount the system until a day before............happened last week and now this week again...
  2. NEG NAO
    12Z Canadian
  3. NEG NAO
    12Z GEM is a track south of us for next mid week
  4. NEG NAO
    The midweek system has a Ohio Valley cutter trying to move too far north IMO and then redevelops too far north of us on the 12Z GFS so we end up with mainly ice to start with and it changes to rain on the 12Z GFS
  5. NEG NAO
    12Z GFS
  6. NEG NAO
    As I mentioned last night and I posted a NAM model run from a few days ago here it seems like many models are acting the same way they did prior to this past Sundays storm. They originally have higher precip amounts for the area and are further north with the precip then they all of a sudden lose the storm and in this case suppress it to the south then just a couple days before the storms arrival they return to their original idea of further north and more precip in the area. What is causing this ? is my question. Also as you mentioned now all of a sudden the model output idea of of the coldest temps of the season seems to be in jeopardy. Same thing happened with that for model output earlier in the week. Models were were presenting that idea for early this week and it never materialized .
  7. NEG NAO
    0Z GFS
  8. NEG NAO
    since the mesoscale models are bringing this back north - the question now is - how far north will they bring it ? Back to here ? Same thing happened with the Sunday storm models had significant accumulations earlier the previous week - lost the storm for a couple days then brought it back to where it originally was to begin with......
  9. NEG NAO
    Upton gave up on the event - but Mt. Holly kept the door open..........
  10. NEG NAO
    Mt. Holly just issued Winter Storm Watches for over 5 inches in most of NJ WSW from KPHI (cod.edu)
  11. NEG NAO
  12. NEG NAO
    still heavy precip at F048
  13. NEG NAO
    Then at 45 low is further west
  14. NEG NAO
    then all snow at 42
  15. NEG NAO
    18Z NAM
  16. NEG NAO
    I hope not - this one for the weekend looks like its heavier
  17. NEG NAO
    Upton and Mount Holly are probably meeting right now or planning to do so this afternoon to begin deciding whether to release Winter Storm Watches for at least some of the area or wait till Saturday AM. Walt probably knows what is going on behind the scenes right now........
  18. NEG NAO
  19. NEG NAO
    12Z GEM
  20. NEG NAO
  21. NEG NAO
  22. NEG NAO
    gotta keep that green liquid offshore - RGEM is maybe too amped ? BUT as one of the inlander"s mentioned AC has to be liquid for inlanders to get higher totals
  23. NEG NAO
    hopefully they are as "sweet" as the NAMs
  24. NEG NAO
    why less qpf ?
  25. NEG NAO
    and its time to begin taking the Mesoscale models such as the NAM seriously since its under 60 hours
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