CheeselandSkies

Would like to see WAA of this magnitude in an April system with severe potential...

I was saying it this time last year and I'll say it again...I'm not loving the cold, but we need a decent (climo) snowpack built up to make sure we don't dry out in the spring. Although, with all the rain late last summer maybe we don't need so much this time.

MKX has hoisted a winter storm watch for all but their southeastern counties, effective beginning at 6 AM tomorrow.

Arctic outbreaks are normal in January. If they continue into late March and especially April, then it becomes a problem. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Not really, just got the first decent event of the winter Friday night into yesterday. 61-page thread (and growing) devoted to tracking that one!

It's all good. I do lurk around here a lot because it's usually the only part of the forum where severe wx discussion is ongoing this time of year.

2018's over, guys. New thread time.

100X time lapse from my balcony, 3:10-4:40 PM.

Here we go! Parking lot at my apt building has a solid dusting now, just started my GoPro timelapse off my balcony.

Yup. SW side here also (south of the Beltline between Whitney and Gammon). Nice dusting on my car.

What side of town are you on?

Nice discussion from MKX this morning.

It's a start. Maybe this will be better suited for another thread but I'm struggling to wrap my head around why this upcoming winter storm will not be able to produce at least a medium-ceiling severe weather episode in the warm sector. Not that I'd be able to chase it anyway but I'd just like to track some radar signatures a bit like your avatar to get the adrenaline pumping.

Big winter outbreaks can and have happened, 1/7 and 2/5 (Super Tuesday) '08 and December 2015 spring immediately to mind, to a lesser extent February 2016 and '17. However the persistent issues from 2018 seem to be lingering with this one, particularly poor warm-sector lapse rates despite the Gulf being wide open and with it being winter, you'd think it would be so frigid upstairs that cloud cover wouldn't matter.

That would be hilarious given how much MKX and our local mets (including the chief met at my employer) have been downplaying this system.

Based on the latest Day 4-8, they're not expecting much out of this.

Those maps are rather meaningless without legends...

We actually got more snow in November, lol...although the big dog whiffed to the south which appears in retrospect to have been the start of a trend.

Good to know they're still keeping track of records, I thought everything not directly related to forecasting/warning might be curtailed due to the shutdown.

Add this to my litany of complaints: The fact that it's pouring rain and forecast to hit 50 degrees today in southern Wisconsin in early January, and not a whiff of a severe threat anywhere in the country. Normally with conditions like that this time of year, we would be in a setup like January 7, 2008. Looks like 2019 wants to continue its predecessor's utter lameness in that regard. No hints of anything in the LR either to go along with the general paucity of snow systems to track. * This lifelong Wisconsinite was able to hold his tongue fairly well watching the end of yesterday's game with his Bears fan girlfriend...

I am not a winterista and I hope never to see a repeat of 2013-14 with the seemingly endless much BN temps (which in DJF in WI means single digits and below). February 2015 and the "spring" of 2018 were ominously close. As I posted elsewhere, in "theory" just normal early January temps in WI should be plenty cold enough to snow. However it seems lately (other than the NYE overachiever) our options are JUST warm enough to rain, or brutally cold and bone dry.

Maybe my memory is just getting a bit fuzzy but at least for southern WI, it feels like we have been quite a bit wetter (both with rain and snow) than we were by this time in 2012. Of course I was living in Milwaukee (lake influence and all that) at the time so it may not be a 1:1 comparison for Madison. It's odd to me that that winter is being brought up as an analog since at that point we were basically staying in strong Nina from year to year (epic tornadic activity in April 2011 followed by extremely warm and dry for the central CONUS throughout spring/summer '12, punctuated by more violent tornado outbreaks on the rare occasions that a system was able to pierce the ridge), whereas it seems (based on what I've read in the ENSO threads on this and other boards) we have been in this weird pseudo-Nino holding pattern for a while now, where the ocean is in an El Nino state but the atmospheric response isn't there.

DSLR shot. About a week late, but sure looks good with the lights.

My gf just got here after driving back from NW Indiana...she said the transition from rain to snow was pretty abrupt as she got to Madison. Not much of a zone of mix/ZR slop, so that's a silver lining.

Just had that, I'll take a hard pass.