CheeselandSkies

Haven't seen any tornado reports, and the slight is dropped. A couple of sig hail reports, though. Edit: Probably the best photo I've seen so far. Looks like it might have been (at least briefly) on the ground behind the trees: https://www.facebook.com/LiveStormChaser/posts/3583427375216800

HRRR has now dropped that idea the last couple hourly runs and now shows everything lining out quickly along the front with no UH >75. Keeps the line intact just barely through MBY by 04Z.

Have fun.

It's a little ominous in wanting to slam the strongest cell of the event (apparently a sweet-spot triple point rider) into the southern part of the Twin Cities metro for a couple runs in a row. Warrants close attention.

Yep, looks like some sneaky potential in the SE MN/WC WI area. Of course, the first event of the season somehow manages to be out of my after-work range to the north. If I hauled @** I could reach the MS River by go time, but that and points east are awful chase terrain up there.

Like I said on Stormtrack, could be a good opportunity for some shake-the-rust-off/break in the gear chases for people who live in/near the risk area, especially falling on a weekend and if you didn't get out much last year due to COVID-19 concerns. That's about it.

My parents (Dad turns 72 this month, Mom turns 70 next month) got their first doses (Pfizer) on Friday. Still worried about my fiancee's dad, though. He's also over 70 with multiple health conditions, lives in the every-mask-for-himself state of Texas (and just had to stay at a friend's house after losing power during the recent winter weather and its repercussions). He also does not have Internet to navigate the sign-up portal; nor is he the type to willingly seek it out. Hope he is around to come to our wedding, whenever that may be. Originally planned for last November, postponed a year for everyone's safety and so that we could do it the way we originally envisioned it; now even that is up in the air due to my fiancee's own lingering health issues caused by our having COVID-19 last August.

See post above yours, wash, rinse, repeat until it's July and 95 degrees.

It's sunny but not warm enough yet, there hasn't been nor is there the slightest hint of a severe weather threat anywhere in the nation in the near term; next week's system(s) look to be moisture-starved because somehow cold fronts are still scouring the Gulf even though we got rid of the abominable cold air over a week ago. There's my complaint.

You can tell there is not enough going on with the weather again. This thread was a lot slower during the epic winter stretch Jan-Feb. It's nice but not nice enough to do much outside unless you're a die-hard...that should change by Sunday. Still need some potential to track.

Very interesting pair of analogs because those years behaved very differently during the spring and summer here in the upper Midwest. Very wet/stormy with numerous tornadoes and widespread flooding problems ('08) vs. exceedingly warm and dry ('12).

Not a lot of significant precip in the 7-day. Had thought as of a week or two ago, there was a more active look for March? At the rate this melt is going, we are going to need to start seeing some rain or we will be looking at the risk of drought, as opposed to the spring flooding potential we were concerned about awhile ago. I swear last year it took until well into May to so much as hear a rumble of thunder around here, which made the early, agonizing weeks of the pandemic/lockdown all the more frustrating.

Oh, I'm more than happy to give it a chance, but the last few years have significantly tempered my optimism/expectations going into spring.

Had hoped the La Nina and -PDO would take care of that this year.

I used to discount early season setups at this latitude out of hand (given that we can have low-level instability issues into late May), but events like 4/9/15, 3/15/16 and 2/28/17 have given me a new respect for them. Heck, we've done better in oddball "off-season" months (even including 12/1/18) in recent years than we have in May and June. Last year also had that late March potential big day that largely busted, but still produced a few tornadoes.

The good news is we are going into spring with a healthy (in fact for some, record) snowpack in place, as opposed to 2011-12 when the entire central CONUS dried to a crisp and started to bake in March and never stopped until almost fall. I have to think that the recent winter storms in the southern Plains will help as well, since it's unusual for them to be going into spring with any snowpack at all in place, isn't it?

The blustery winds today even prior to precip onset made it feel less mild than I was expecting/hoping for.

Don't. Even.

Thought we were supposed to be on the upswing by now.

FIFY.