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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    New tornado warning for the western side of the complex. Usually you expect severe events to start winding down after the sun sets. This one is just getting started.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Here we go! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1379.html Although, it's "Rusk" County...
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Now tornado-warned.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    May just be distance from the respective radar (but warning wording is also stronger on it, too) but the eastern cluster riding along and east of US 51/I-39 looks to be the more impressive right now.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    SPC with little change at go time on the 01Z outlook.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    I may have to eat my words here shortly with that Grantsburg cell, although of course it is in the worst of the radar hole equidistant from KDLH and KMPX.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, rather bizarre situation there. Just looking at the radar almost right off the bat, it seems things want to line/bow out pretty quick so looking like the longer-lived/strong (supercell) tornado threat won't really materialize. Not to say there couldn't be a stronger (EF2 or even 3, like that Chicago 'burbs one a few weeks ago) spin-up with an HP supercell embedded in the QLCS as it takes shape down the road.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Latest HRRR kills the western half of the complex and brings the most intense activity near/south of Green Bay, over LM and into the IN/OH/MI border region by Thursday morning.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Already what looks on radar like it could be an incipient supercell northwest of Wausau. Unwarned as of yet. Watch includes (as already noted) most of WI and all of my employer's market coverage area apart from Grant and Crawford.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    MD expires in 12 minutes and no watch yet...
  11. CheeselandSkies
    HRRR gradually trending toward bringing the western end of the MCS over the Madison area, although weakened from earlier, but of course it wants to bring the storms through right when I'll be commuting to work.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Now we're talking. Sun's back out here, after we were overcast for a time this afternoon.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    First MD out just for 40% probability of a watch over north-central MN (slight risk area). Still in watchful waiting mode.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Interesting curl shape/possible broad cyclonic rotation to the southwest edge of the anvil debris/cirrus clouds currently drifting southeast through central Iowa. Not sure if that has any implications on the scenario for later. The cloud deck in general appears to finally be shrinking/dissipating with heating building back in over MN/IA. Edit: No change to the southwestern edge of the risk areas at 1630Z, slight/marginal expanded to the northeast.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    If the CAM solutions are right, Madison doesn't need to be in the Enhanced risk. HRRR and 3K NAM still largely agree on a whiff northeast. Now that I check the WRFs, they give us some storms but not nearly as potent as points north/east.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    HRRR is a whiff northeast. So is 3KM NAM, at least with the intense portion of the MCS.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    "Roared and poured" for about 10 minutes starting right around 2 AM, or 15 minutes before my alarm went off (3AM work start time). I love storms but on this shift every minute of sleep is precious.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Honestly not looking like a great chase day. Central/northern WI where the chance for discrete supercells is highest is terrible terrain/trees. Of course I will keep tabs on things but the threat doesn't look to get further south until late when it'll be dark and derecho mode in full effect.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Confirmed. Although I think of this as "proper" July weather for the region, so it doesn't make up for the lame @$$ A/M/J.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    HRRR is for northern, central and southeastern WI late tomorrow afternoon through the overnight but whiffs me just to the northeast.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Woke up to this at the resort in Warrens, after seeing some distant lightning from the complex to the northeast while driving back from the Twin Cities Monday evening. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  22. CheeselandSkies
    GFS continues to suggest mid-next week could finally be a classic NW flow ridge-rider derecho pattern for parts of the upper Midwest. Been a while since we got into a good one of those (8/10/20 was kind of a fluky one-off).
  23. CheeselandSkies
    When the 3KM EHI on the GFS is in excess of 10 but the possible hazard type is "Excessive Heat," you know you're in the armpit of summer.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Maybe we should rename/retire this thread, seeing as it's no longer spring.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    So why can't it ever last through April?
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