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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    Actually a decent patch of clearing (including [lack of] dust) seems to be working its way into WC IL at the moment. Wouldn't be the morning of a chase day without a few headscratchers from the atmosphere, I guess.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    RAP/HRRR crashed back down to earth hard starting around 11Z this morning. Not sure if the dust had anything to do with it but it's also gonna ruin the photogenic potential of any convection this afternoon.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Looks almost pitch black outside with a reddish tint.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Regardless of whatever else happens, had my first thunder of the year a few minutes ago and it was a doozy. Flash momentarily stung my eyes even though I had my back turned to the windows, followed by a boom that made my apartment building vibrate. Wasn't even really expecting anything more than cold rain at home in the morning with temps in the 30s.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Of course, now the HRRR has dramatically backed off its ominous runs from just a few hours ago. Seems the dewpoints will verify on the lower end after all. Still might be a photogenic mini-supercell or two.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Yes, however HRRR was bullish off the bat which raised my eyebrows. 3KM NAM and FV3 less so but had the same general idea. Now nearly all CAMs and the RAP have significantly uptrended with moisture.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    With a 10 hatch in Illinois, I think today is thread worthy.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Was thinking yesterday Ottawa to Pontiac area looked like a good target. Nice open terrain there, too.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Definitely not "too high to touch the ground." I've been burned multiple times in the recent past by not chasing after underestimating seemingly marginal moisture.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    If temps stay in the low 60s (not unreasonable), low 50s dews are plenty for a doable LCL. HRRR is actually suggesting mid or even small pockets of upper 50s are possible. I would have expected it to be mixing to the low 40s.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    A bit surprised they are not mentioning a tornado threat whatsoever given the strong shear and the sweet spot of 3CAPE pooling on the HRRR. These seem to be the kind of setups that are conducive for low-topped spinners in this region.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    0Z HRRR actually portrays a decent environment over S. WI early-mid afternoon Wednesday, although it doesn't explicitly break out rotating cells.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    February 8th 2024 definitely opened my eyes to the range of surface T/Td conditions in which significant are possible, along with Winterset day in 2022.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Looks more interesting than last Friday from a chase standpoint from where I'm coming from.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    A fair amount of wind reports into southern Wisconsin last night, one pretty close to me although I didn't notice anything too intense, must have been a quite localized gust. Didn't even see/hear any lightning/thunder. I think there was a heavier cell that moved north-northwest through Rock into south-central/southeastern Dane County that was probably responsible for most of those reports. @madwx You see anything?
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Never fails. Wherever these storms track during outbreaks your 0.5 degree scan is either at 400 or 7,500' AGL.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    ...not to mention the severe threat later.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Pending any moisture issues that has the look of another potentially significant threat in the warm sector of that system, and we haven't even begun today/tomorrow's. Verbatim that would be much more favorably placed for a workday chase for me. Today's is just a tad too far to go for storms that will be after dark, after being up since 3:30 this morning.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    To drive 4+ hours tomorrow afternoon to somewhere in western IL between the Quad Cities and St. Louis for what will likely be after dark, quasi-linear tornadic storms moving at warp speed, or not? That is the question.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    It's only now at the tail end of its range, but the 12Z NAM at least keeps hope alive for something in possibly western Illinois on Friday. Moisture depth and low-level CAPE improve dramatically from 21-00Z.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    On the 18Z GFS it appears the moisture surges north a bit by around 03Z Saturday. After dark QLCS threats are always fun...
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, was pretty set on a chase Friday until about the 00Z suite last night. Verbatim, LCLs aren't terrible if temps remain in the 60s even with low 50s dews (Winterset day blew my mind that was even possible with those kind of surface thermos), but GFS forecast soundings suggest things might stay capped at those temperatures.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    My wife and I gifted my parents a solar camera-equipped "Bird Buddy" for Christmas. My dad has been texting me some of the clips it captures.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Good thing it's early March.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Time to move it to this one:
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