klw

next week, it may even be visible during the day https://skyandtelescope.org/press-releases/bright-comet-evening-view/

The first and best aurora sighting I had was in 97 with comet Hale Bopp visible with it. I remember someone actually made a poster with them both over Lake Champlain. Here is a photo but not mine and not of the poster but of Hale Bopp

It should go much of the night. NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 10-Oct 12 2024 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 00-03UT 2.00 7.67 (G4) 5.33 (G1) 03-06UT 2.67 8.00 (G4) 5.00 (G1) 06-09UT 1.67 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 09-12UT 2.00 6.67 (G3) 4.33 12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 6.33 (G2) 4.33 15-18UT 6.67 (G3) 6.33 (G2) 5.33 (G1) 18-21UT 8.33 (G4) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 21-00UT 7.67 (G4) 5.33 (G1) 4.33 Rationale: Analysis of the CME associated with the X1.8 flare suggests further enhancement 10 Oct into 11 Oct, reaching G4 (Severe) levels is likely with G5 (Extreme) levels possible. G1 (Minor) conditions are expected on 12 Oct as CME influence wanes. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 10-Oct 12 2024 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 00-03UT 2.00 7.67 (G4) 5.33 (G1) 03-06UT 2.67 8.00 (G4) 5.00 (G1) 06-09UT 1.67 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 09-12UT 2.00 6.67 (G3) 4.33 12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 6.33 (G2) 4.33 15-18UT 6.67 (G3) 6.33 (G2) 5.33 (G1) 18-21UT 8.33 (G4) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 21-00UT 7.67 (G4) 5.33 (G1) 4.33 Rationale: Analysis of the CME associated with the X1.8 flare suggests further enhancement 10 Oct into 11 Oct, reaching G4 (Severe) levels is likely with G5 (Extreme) levels possible. G1 (Minor) conditions are expected on 12 Oct as CME influence wanes. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental

too cloudy here so far, I thought there was a reddish tint to the clouds but unsure if it was just my eyes.

Turned the heat on last evening for the first time this season. It begins.

traffic cams on Sanibel are in the dark but I think this shows water up high on a pedestrian crossing sign https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams/sancam#https://cdn3.wowza.com/5/eHl2a1NIR253WWIw/fastly/casaybel-west.stream/playlist.m3u8#Periwinkle_&_Casa_Ybel_West Lighting is better on this one, you can see the water moving https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams/sancam#https://cdn3.wowza.com/5/eHl2a1NIR253WWIw/fastly/lindgren-west.stream/playlist.m3u8#Lindgren_&_East_Gulf_West

On radar the eye looks to be closing off and getting more circular https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Orlando-comp_radar-6-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Center of the storm is picked up by Cuban radar now. (Not terribly well but it is there) http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar del Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

911/ 175 mph on new update https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071735.shtml

Anyone with a link to a good radar for Cancun and the storm?

seems to be running a bit later than forecast

https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2024-10-04/you-may-be-able-to-see-an-aurora-in-vermont-this-saturday The aurora borealis will likely be visible throughout Vermont the night of Saturday, Oct. 5, according to a forecast by the Space Weather Prediction Center. Eric Myskowski, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Burlington office, said the forecast Saturday is mostly clear skies with cloudy skies in the Northeast Kingdom, though there will be breaks in the clouds. He advised prospective aurora viewers to find dark places with a clear view of the northern horizon. “Basically, get away from light pollution, as far as you can. Say you live in Burlington, it would be ideal to get outside the city area and to the northern horizon,” Myskowski said. “Where you have a visible northern horizon is better.”

https://www.spaceweather.com/

Fantastic News!

right about 2.1 here between yesterday and today, very thick fog on the way home tonight (35 mph on the highway level thickness)

Put the Nokias on the Subaru yesterday. Bring it on! (summer tires were toast)

Ahh yes the annual GFS seasonal transition 384hr Blizzardcane which then makes someone post "it happened with Sandy"

oddly enough, one of my azeleas is blooming. I haven't been able to come up with an explanation.

Careful out there:

too legit to quit

We are seeing other signs of fall up here- white plated cars driving 30 in a 50 or doing U-Turns on the Main Street in Stowe during evening traffic, locals selling crap in yard sales to folks looking for antiques, lots of LED headlights heading north on Friday night on 100 or 89, local craft places selling pumpkin ales ... .

I did on Saturday

85/60 at KLEB