klw

It should be here any minute https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KVTNORWI24

Storms just reached Rutland but the camera faces east

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Burlington VT 639 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 NYC031-VTC001-021-132245- /O.CON.KBTV.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230713T2245Z/ Essex NY-Addison VT-Rutland VT- 639 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX...SOUTHWESTERN ADDISON AND NORTHWESTERN RUTLAND COUNTIES... At 639 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Lake Dunmore, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Essex, southwestern Addison and northwestern Rutland Counties, including the following locations... Benson Bay, Catfish Bay In Addison County, Huntley Island, Forest Dale, Beadles Cove, Larrabees Point, Beartrap Island, Kerby Point, Hollands Pasture Island, and East Shoreham.

https://vtdigger.org/2023/07/13/vermont-reports-first-flood-related-fatality/

It looks like the cell moving into Addison County is being picked up by this camera in Middlebury:

Other views here: https://www.wcax.com/weather/cams/ current cell may go straight over the airport soon (edit- looks like it will miss to the west (behind the camera)

Can watch storm come into Burlington off the lake here:

BTV discussion (will Wiz make his wife read it to him- not for lack of ability to comprehend): https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 332 PM EDT Thursday...Active severe weather is ongoing through this evening as an unseasonably strong low pressure system drags a cold front eastward through our region tonight. As expected, ingredients are present for rotating thunderstorms in this region, near the triple point of a dynamic low pressure system passing northeastward through the St. Lawrence Valley. Our thermodynamic environment is impressive with mixed layer CAPE at 2 PM of 1500-2000 J/kg, steep low level lapse rates and moderate mid-level lapse rates helping updrafts strengthen. Southwesterly wind shear is ample to keep storm structures organized, with effective shear of 30 to 35 knots, and rotation is substantial with 0-1 km helicity of 100 to 150 m2/s2. Additionally, strong synoptic southerly winds will gradually expand eastward, which are being channeled up the Champlain Valley with wind gusts locally near 35 MPH. An occasional stronger gust may cause isolated damage outside of the thunderstorms, especially where we`ve seen very wet conditions. A mixture of storm modes are present, which include linear segments and discrete cells, which could include supercells. The main hazards are damaging winds and flash flooding. Wind damage has already been reported in the northern New York this afternoon. Rotating storms have resulted in a reported funnel cloud, but relatively high cloud bases (3000 feet or higher) may limit the tornado potential. As thunderstorms expand northward and eastward off of the Adirondacks, we will be concerned with rotating storms and enhanced gusts in the Champlain Valley due to enhanced low level convergence. As the evening progresses, any discrete storms should tend to be absorbed into a single fast moving squall line. Brief spinups are possible along this line, and its fast forward speed will tend to keep its severity going all the way eastward through Vermont even as daytime heating. Scattered wind damage is expected with the squall line. Less wind will be needed to produce downed trees than typical given saturated soils in most areas currently in a flood watch. Where a combination of discrete and linear storms move over the same area, flash flooding due to multiple rounds of heavy rain remains possible. A heightened concern for flooding remains in our hard hit areas of central Vermont, where capacity for additional heavy rain is low. Improving conditions will arrive overnight with winds becoming light and drier air settling in behind the cold front.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Otherwise, damaging winds are the main threat, with large hail mainly confined to any rotating storms during the period. Damaging winds may be more likely to uproot trees in today`s event given saturated ground conditions areawide. Severe threat gradually wanes across central/ern VT late this evening as storms encounter weakening CAPE with onset of diurnal cooling cycle. We`ll need to watch the southern end of the potential convective line, where some of the CAMs output and HREF suggest best potential for training storms toward the end of the event this evening. Thinking most rainfall is in 0.75-1" range, but locally 1-1.5" and maybe localized 2" totals for Rutland/Windsor counties if storms take on more of an NE-SW orientation parallel to weakening deep-layer shear in the 00-03Z period this evening. Low Flash flood guidance values - a function of saturated antecedent soil conditions - of roughly 1.2-1.5" in 3 hours will potentially be exceeded with the type of intense rainfall that these thunderstorms can produce. As such, Flood Watch continues to look good, and will highlight greatest potential of flash flooding is in s-central VT.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Convective allowing models are consistent in their depiction of convective initiation in vcnty of St. Lawrence County 18-19Z, with convective storms moving steadily eastward through the late afternoon hrs in nrn NY and across VT during the late afternoon thru evening hours. Best vertical shear is in the sfc-700mb layer, with excellent hodograph curvature and sfc-1km SRH values exceeding 100 m2/s2, especially across nrn NY. Weakening mid- level flow and shear suggests updrafts may rain back on themselves later in the convective evolution, with potential for storm mergers and upscale growth into a QLCS. Until that time however, environment does support supercell development with 30-40kts of sfc-6km bulk shear and aforementioned strong low- level SRH and high CAPE values. Can`t rule out an isolated tornado or two, especially nrn NY ewd into the Champlain Valley, where stronger southerly PBL flow will exist with terrain driven channeling effects. Vermont averages one tornado per year, and this is the type of convective environment that can be conducive for isolated tornadoes to happen in our region.

The washout in this video is impressive: https://www.wcax.com/2023/07/12/dozens-vermont-roads-remain-closed/

My favorite part of the Governor's midday press conference was the guy who said they are still looking for the bridge that got washed out in Vershire. He then added that they are not going to put it back when they find it but they would like to find it anyway. (he was smiling as he added the second part)

Flood watch up here runs from 2pm tomorrow to 2am Friday. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ021&warncounty=VTC027&firewxzone=VTZ035&local_place1=West Norwich VT&product1=Flood+Watch&lat=43.7543&lon=-72.3728

Flood watch issued for most of Vermont for tomorrow into Friday: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BTV&wwa=flood watch Flood Watch National Weather Service Burlington VT 1259 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 NYZ028-031-034-035-VTZ003-004-006>011-016>021-130845- /O.NEW.KBTV.FA.A.0003.230713T1800Z-230714T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Eastern Clinton-Western Clinton-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Orleans-Essex-Lamoille-Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison- Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden- Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-Eastern Windsor- Including the cities of Champlain, Plattsburgh, Dannemora, Ellenburg, Lake Placid, Newcomb, Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Derby, Newport, Island Pond, Lunenburg, Johnson, Stowe, Hardwick, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Waitsfield, Middlebury, Vergennes, Bradford, Randolph, Fair Haven, Rutland, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Richmond, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, Killington, Bethel, Ludlow, Springfield, and White River Junction 1259 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...In Vermont... Most of central and northern Vermont except Grand Isle, Western Chittenden, and Western Franklin Counties. In New York... Essex and Clinton Counties. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flash flooding, especially along river and streams and in low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional rainfall is expected Thursday afternoon as a line of strong thunderstorms moves through. Rivers and streams are already running high and any additional rainfall will go straight to run-off in areas that have recently flooded. Additional forecast rainfall amounts for Thursday afternoon are 1 to 1.5 inches, locally up to 2 inches in the heaviest storms.

Flood watch issued for most of Vermont for tomorrow into Friday: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BTV&wwa=flood watch Flood Watch National Weather Service Burlington VT 1259 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 NYZ028-031-034-035-VTZ003-004-006>011-016>021-130845- /O.NEW.KBTV.FA.A.0003.230713T1800Z-230714T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Eastern Clinton-Western Clinton-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Orleans-Essex-Lamoille-Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison- Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden- Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-Eastern Windsor- Including the cities of Champlain, Plattsburgh, Dannemora, Ellenburg, Lake Placid, Newcomb, Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Derby, Newport, Island Pond, Lunenburg, Johnson, Stowe, Hardwick, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Waitsfield, Middlebury, Vergennes, Bradford, Randolph, Fair Haven, Rutland, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Richmond, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, Killington, Bethel, Ludlow, Springfield, and White River Junction 1259 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...In Vermont... Most of central and northern Vermont except Grand Isle, Western Chittenden, and Western Franklin Counties. In New York... Essex and Clinton Counties. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flash flooding, especially along river and streams and in low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional rainfall is expected Thursday afternoon as a line of strong thunderstorms moves through. Rivers and streams are already running high and any additional rainfall will go straight to run-off in areas that have recently flooded. Additional forecast rainfall amounts for Thursday afternoon are 1 to 1.5 inches, locally up to 2 inches in the heaviest storms.

The 12Z model runs are concerning for the next 5 days.

Tight end likely open on an out route.

Have they installed?

Vermont also has a massive housing shortage which will make it even harder on the displaced.

Is that the Richmond Park and Ride?

I forgot who is hosting the Maple Chugging contest this Friday. Is it you or MREAVES?

It has reopened https://www.vermontpublic.org/live-updates/vermont-experiencing-significant-flash-flooding#interstate-89-reopens-in-montpelier-area

from that article is an shot of Montpelier this morning:

I haven't even used fans yet. (granted if I used the window fan it would just suck in the constant rain or the smoke when it is not raining)