BTV's take on the system from the AFD:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
From 00Z Saturday onward is where models diverge. While there`s
agreement that there will be some sort of secondary low development
along the southern New England coast Friday night, the strength and
position of the aforementioned surface high pressure north of the
Canadian border remains in question. Where the GDPS was the outlier
the past 2 days offering a stronger high and QPF suppressed across
our central/southern zones and southward, the GFS has now jumped on
board while the latest GDPS has trended slightly north. The ECMWF
remains the most northward solution with the heaviest QPF, but it
should be noted the mean of its ensemble members keep it south
across central/southern New England. So what does all this mean?
Well, while confidence is increasing (quite high actually) that the
forecast area will receive precipitation, confidence remains low as
to where the heaviest QPF will occur. The good news is that the
ptype is currently looking like all snow, with the worst case
scenario being some sleet mixing in across southern VT.
Probabilities from blended guidance for >4" of snow are 60-70%, but
for >8" it drops off to 30-40%. A snow storm with minor to moderate
impacts seems likely Friday night through Saturday with our best
first guess being a widespread 5-8" from north to south.