klw

Is this the first map of the season?

I thought it was something along those lines but just couldn't get to it. Thanks

GHG?

Judging by the shadows on the trees, I would guess south, possibly south to south east.

This port a potty was later found in Montpelier

craft beer, syrup, and crap by the side of the road we pass off as antiques.

If asked about how much effort I put into removing the mulch which fell in the paint in the afternoon, when I was pretty tired, I may be vague in my answer and quickly change the subject. In a related note, labradors chasing tennis balls kick up quite a bit of mulch.

Outside doing work in the yard I heard a tree come down in the woods just the other side of the property line. Winds are calming down now which will be good as I am doing so painting on a shed today.

The 18Z clown NAM put 6 inches here, it throws a tiny dot of 6" right on top of my house. As Dana Carvey use to say when he played Bush the elder "Not gonna happen"

Beautiful starry night out tonight which is so clear here that I can see the Milky Way faintly even with the moon being bright. So glad it was cloudy last night instead of clear or else I would have stayed outside watching the aurora instead of inside getting to experience Apple TV freezing on me every 20 seconds or so. I got far more sleep thanks to those clouds.

Have you locked in the 6Z GFS clown?

next week, it may even be visible during the day https://skyandtelescope.org/press-releases/bright-comet-evening-view/

The first and best aurora sighting I had was in 97 with comet Hale Bopp visible with it. I remember someone actually made a poster with them both over Lake Champlain. Here is a photo but not mine and not of the poster but of Hale Bopp

It should go much of the night. NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 10-Oct 12 2024 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 00-03UT 2.00 7.67 (G4) 5.33 (G1) 03-06UT 2.67 8.00 (G4) 5.00 (G1) 06-09UT 1.67 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 09-12UT 2.00 6.67 (G3) 4.33 12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 6.33 (G2) 4.33 15-18UT 6.67 (G3) 6.33 (G2) 5.33 (G1) 18-21UT 8.33 (G4) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 21-00UT 7.67 (G4) 5.33 (G1) 4.33 Rationale: Analysis of the CME associated with the X1.8 flare suggests further enhancement 10 Oct into 11 Oct, reaching G4 (Severe) levels is likely with G5 (Extreme) levels possible. G1 (Minor) conditions are expected on 12 Oct as CME influence wanes. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 10-Oct 12 2024 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 00-03UT 2.00 7.67 (G4) 5.33 (G1) 03-06UT 2.67 8.00 (G4) 5.00 (G1) 06-09UT 1.67 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 09-12UT 2.00 6.67 (G3) 4.33 12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 6.33 (G2) 4.33 15-18UT 6.67 (G3) 6.33 (G2) 5.33 (G1) 18-21UT 8.33 (G4) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 21-00UT 7.67 (G4) 5.33 (G1) 4.33 Rationale: Analysis of the CME associated with the X1.8 flare suggests further enhancement 10 Oct into 11 Oct, reaching G4 (Severe) levels is likely with G5 (Extreme) levels possible. G1 (Minor) conditions are expected on 12 Oct as CME influence wanes. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental

too cloudy here so far, I thought there was a reddish tint to the clouds but unsure if it was just my eyes.

Turned the heat on last evening for the first time this season. It begins.

traffic cams on Sanibel are in the dark but I think this shows water up high on a pedestrian crossing sign https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams/sancam#https://cdn3.wowza.com/5/eHl2a1NIR253WWIw/fastly/casaybel-west.stream/playlist.m3u8#Periwinkle_&_Casa_Ybel_West Lighting is better on this one, you can see the water moving https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams/sancam#https://cdn3.wowza.com/5/eHl2a1NIR253WWIw/fastly/lindgren-west.stream/playlist.m3u8#Lindgren_&_East_Gulf_West

On radar the eye looks to be closing off and getting more circular https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Orlando-comp_radar-6-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Center of the storm is picked up by Cuban radar now. (Not terribly well but it is there) http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar del Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

911/ 175 mph on new update https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071735.shtml

Anyone with a link to a good radar for Cancun and the storm?

seems to be running a bit later than forecast

https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2024-10-04/you-may-be-able-to-see-an-aurora-in-vermont-this-saturday The aurora borealis will likely be visible throughout Vermont the night of Saturday, Oct. 5, according to a forecast by the Space Weather Prediction Center. Eric Myskowski, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Burlington office, said the forecast Saturday is mostly clear skies with cloudy skies in the Northeast Kingdom, though there will be breaks in the clouds. He advised prospective aurora viewers to find dark places with a clear view of the northern horizon. “Basically, get away from light pollution, as far as you can. Say you live in Burlington, it would be ideal to get outside the city area and to the northern horizon,” Myskowski said. “Where you have a visible northern horizon is better.”