etudiant

Thank you Roger Smith, for this exceptionally informative posting. Your insight about the way newspapers were laid out makes one recognize that their current format maybe should again change, now that the web handles the breaking news. Imho, the WSJ, the Wash Post and the NY Times have long adapted and view the front page as an editorial page. But without the ads, it is only the view of the 0.01%.

Honestly, you guys should take a victory lap, you did good. That said, I think we did not look beyond landfall enough. This storm killed way more people up here than down there, because people here got surprised. I know the mets were screaming, but the leaders were not listening, they could not tell the difference.

Seems the bulk of the system will bypass the metro area to the north.

Does too, us Manhattanites build our world around it.

A $50B flood wall built in New Orleans is a $5B project elsewhere. The graft is impressive, superbly organized and pervasive throughout. I'd have very little confidence that anything has really changed since Katrina, so I hope we will not see.

Think that reflects the poor track forecast for this storm, which has just kept chugging along rather than make the sharp right turn to the east that the models all agreed on. I've no idea what that was based on and the models did correctly call for the shift from mostly west to mostly north earlier, but in this instance, they were badly caught out. None forecast Henri would meander around CT and the Hudson Valley. Frankly not a great advertisement for our meteorological forecasting skills.

Cab someone more expert in meteorology help us understand this egregious modeling failure to predict the record precipitation generated by this storm? It seems to me that the focus on the exact landfall and the peak intensity caused everyone to lose sight of the real issue, but honestly the models did not handle the moisture element well.

The rain band that impacted NYC and NJ last night sort of reached way out from the storm. It seemed unusual, but it is still surprising that the models did not recognize the precipitation potential. Wonder what lessons will be learned from this.

Amazed the raccoons have not found your garden yet. They were on the case in short order when I was gardening in CT. Early ripeness evaluators for corn, berries and tomatoes. Not so much for asparagus.

Surprising errors for a system in our back yard. Helps understand the Ukie failure to initialize Henry correctly.

So how did the garden fare? We're all now invested in its health.

These are projects fueled by supersonic cash courtesy of the Fed. There is zero real world utility for these fantasies, the time saved flying is used up by the airport vaccine checkin. Too much money chasing too few ideas.

Just astounding flooding from what had been seen as a second grade storm. Stay safe!

Very nice shot of a Carolina Wren family. They are astonishingly loud for such a small bird.

Just switch to the African Robusta coffees, they are more potent as well as cheaper. The Hawaiian Konas are sinfully expensive, but if you can afford the Peaberry, go for it, you only live once.

Why do you think that is the case? India is much hotter than the expected median global temperature after the most extreme Global Warming, yet seems civilized to me. I've no argument that things will not get very messy, but find the 'we'll all collapse' scenario deeply implausible.

Think that is over the top, extinction is not in the cards even with the outlier scenarios. Huge losses and major disruptions though are pretty much baked in the cake. We could help keep the damage to a minimum, but would need to convince China and India that climate change has greater risks than dire poverty. Thus far, that has been a ' no sale'. Ideally, there would to be an alternative, ideally a cheap and reliable nuclear power design, fusion, fission or whatever. so no greenhouse emissions and the capacity to power an electric surface transportation system. Nothing has materialized as yet though.

The trade press is reporting surging Asian coal shipments and notes parenthetically that China is building more coal power plants than currently exist in the rest of the world outside of the US and India. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/asia-coal-demand-surge-in-stark-contrast-with-u-n-climate-warning/ I guess they are skeptical about the seriousness of climate change.

I don't either, but as that is true for many other well regarded posters, it surely reflects my ignorance. Frankly, this stuff just is not easy, so kudos to those who catch a glimmer!

Nobody keeps bobcats any more apparently, even though they are efficient and non discriminatory predators that eat cats and rats both as available. Agree on the mantis part, our home grown variant seems to be doing about as well as the native humans did, not so good. Have to wonder whether there is some genetic difference that makes the locals more vulnerable.

Have to say that extent never seemed like a useful measure to me, but perhaps specialists could clarify that aspect. Area is where it is at imho, while also recognizing that PIOMAS is really the ground truth.

Is there access outside of the paywall? I could not find it. I did just that, quoting the last sentence of the summary, which you've helpfully added in full.

Agree that that is a new one to join the throng, apparently first found in PA around the turn of the century, but spreading since across most of the US. We do have plenty of native stink bugs to keep it company though.

Just the non paywalled section. The punch line: These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition. Sounds like a plausible hobgoblin to me.

Nope, 100% American. Maybe climate change has expanded their range a bit.