etudiant

I actually did read the paper and was tempted but refrained from quoting HL Menken: The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. I believe it to be quite apposite in this case, grant seeking researchers are no different from politicians, they make their case on the 'if it bleeds, it leads' principle.

As Mark Twain said: "That's the wonderful thing about science, you get such a wholesale return in conjecture on such a trifling investment of facts'.

Afaik, the Spotted Lantern Fly is a gift from Asia, coming in courtesy of poorly vetted imports.. Not sure if cutting down on our purchases of cheap Chinese junk such as IPhones would help much at this point, although perhaps it might prevent the Barred Lantern Fly and equivalent in the future.. Frankly, with the Asian Ash Borer and the Asian Long Horned beetle also both now well established here, I hear the sound of barn doors getting slammed shut somewhat belatedly....

Afaik, there is no effective treatment currently. Ideally, there would be a specialized predatory wasp or something, but it has not been found as yet. Guess that stomping them is at least modestly satisfying, even though it is quite futile.

Seems we have lots to be humble about, judging by the forecast performance to date. Admittedly, we are just at the start of the real hurricane season, but the reduced forecast by JB at least suggests that.

Amen to that! Wasting is a sin, although I'm not sure Fluffy ever considered that aspect.

Afaik, they do actually eat, unlike some other adult insects, so they can last longer than you might think Still, appreciate the mental image of a lonely cicada belting out its courtship song into an empty void....

Buy coffee, the cold in Brazil will really impact supply. Maybe switch to Red Bull?

Interesting to hear, they have likewise just really begun to be heard here in NYC Central Park. I've only seen one thus far on my daily walks, but there are scattered individuals audible as well. There is nothing like the 'brood of the century' hype that was widely posted in the media. In fact, thus far it is a pretty spotty performance, even compared to last year.

Love gardeners. They are the truth squad in the climate wars. Can't claim cooling if the beans fill in a couple of weeks earlier than previously. Here in NYC our first Day Lilies blossomed around June 20th, they usually are an Independence Day phenomenon.

Surely true, but I'd really like some modeling explanation why there is a 40 year cooling trend in both East as well as West Antarctica. It just seems a weird anomaly that needs to be understood.

Would note that the Antarctic appears to be mostly cooling. See: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/2/217/htm Punch line in the summary discussion: ' The temperature trend from ERA5 is consistent with that from observations, in which a cooling trend dominates East Antarctica and West Antarctica, while a warming trend exists in the Antarctic Peninsula except during austral summer.'

Estimates are that it could work, but only on a huge scale, such as adding a trillion trees. Iirc, the North Eastern US has reforested pretty substantially in the last century, so we just have to get India, China and Brazil on board....

Think Rclab has a clearer understanding of the Central Park situation, it needs giraffes and elephants both, although goats are always welcome.

Not a real gardener, but I'd thought that raised beds were developed just for these kind of conditions. Admittedly, not that easy to put up raised beds and there are probably downsides I don't know about.

Deer are probably the best reason to be driving a full sized F-150 truck or similar in the NE suburbs. Iirc, deer collisions are the most common cause of death or injury from wildlife. Bringing back wolves and cougars would be a life saving measure, as well as ecologically very desirable.

Is the Furnace Creek temperature still measured at the same location as was the 1913 record? Iirc, there was a discussion about the location a few years back, with skeptics claiming that the site had been shifted to a hotter location, hotter because it was less exposed, sort of NYC Central Park in reverse.. I've no idea whether that is in fact valid in this case, but it does point to one of the difficulties encountered in maintaining consistent records.

Was the Siberian heatwave last year not similarly beyond prior model estimates? It covered a larger area, afaik and the deviations from the norm were at least as great. Should that be seen as supporting evidence for a qualitative shift?

Thank you! Merkel without the charm, amazing he got reelected.

Too bad he is stuffed. It would have been nice to have had a live one.

Afaik, the desert has ample water for the people, what really drains the aquifers is large scale agriculture of very water intensive crops such as alfalfa. Underground resources are not usually communally regulated (oil is an important exception, all sorts of regulations there), so abusive practices are the norm. Tragedy of the Commons, in modern dress, imho.

Given the excursions we've just had on the West coast, I'd not be overly confident in historic trends. Clearly things can and do change on a dime

Don't know about Newark, but Central Park is ok for winter temperatures and for precipitation afaik. NYC CP summer temperatures otoh are really suspect.

Imho, Roger here is providing a Masters Class on the topic, with emphasis on some real issues. This stuff is tough, lots of unexpected secondary processes complicate developments, so inadequate models and simulations that fall well short of the needed resolutions produce unreliable results. Has there ever been an effort to really grid a suitable area, say 100 miles square, to verify the modeling parameters employed? It would not be cheap to do, requiring many tens of thousands of sensors at multiple altitudes, but the ground truths it would gather would be essential to constrain the models.

High standards indeed!