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etudiant

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Everything posted by etudiant

  1. Was the Siberian heatwave last year not similarly beyond prior model estimates? It covered a larger area, afaik and the deviations from the norm were at least as great. Should that be seen as supporting evidence for a qualitative shift?
  2. Thank you! Merkel without the charm, amazing he got reelected.
  3. Too bad he is stuffed. It would have been nice to have had a live one.
  4. Afaik, the desert has ample water for the people, what really drains the aquifers is large scale agriculture of very water intensive crops such as alfalfa. Underground resources are not usually communally regulated (oil is an important exception, all sorts of regulations there), so abusive practices are the norm. Tragedy of the Commons, in modern dress, imho.
  5. Given the excursions we've just had on the West coast, I'd not be overly confident in historic trends. Clearly things can and do change on a dime
  6. Don't know about Newark, but Central Park is ok for winter temperatures and for precipitation afaik. NYC CP summer temperatures otoh are really suspect.
  7. Imho, Roger here is providing a Masters Class on the topic, with emphasis on some real issues. This stuff is tough, lots of unexpected secondary processes complicate developments, so inadequate models and simulations that fall well short of the needed resolutions produce unreliable results. Has there ever been an effort to really grid a suitable area, say 100 miles square, to verify the modeling parameters employed? It would not be cheap to do, requiring many tens of thousands of sensors at multiple altitudes, but the ground truths it would gather would be essential to constrain the models.
  8. You never know about California weather. It had an atmospheric river/ flood that put the Central Valley under 20 feet of water back in 1862, to the painful surprise of the recent white immigrants. The native locals, who had seen this before , safely retreated to high ground before the event. Today, no one remembers and so we remains similarly clueless and unprepared.
  9. How is this deflection? Also why on just dumb people? Hypocritical behaviour is not well regarded by most people, even intelligent ones. I simply state that the people who are leading the public are distancing themselves from any actual personal effort. That does not inspire confidence.
  10. That is not how I see it. The suppliers of fossil fuels can be rightfully burdened with extra costs to offset the damage they are inflicting on the environment. However, for individuals who excoriate the use of fossil fuels and who highlight the potential adverse consequences should set an example of how to behave, rather than flaunting their complete disrespect for the message they preach. Private flights to climate conferences and purchases of lavish beachfront estates are simply inconsistent with that message. Maybe the community needs new spokespeople.
  11. Sheeting rain just started here. Hoping for a decent soak. Settled down to a much more modest drizzle after a brief (5 minutes max) heavy rain.
  12. They do set a really bad example though. It is classic 'do as I say, not as I do'. That does not sit well with most people.
  13. No, s/he merely adds a lifetime supply of CO2 emissions on every flight. Maybe Zoom conferencing should be mandatory instead?
  14. Not an expert, but afaik, the law allows one to recycle the offending coolant. So there are shops that have the needed facilities and refrigerant salvaged. A 560SL is a splendid car, lucky you. Well worth the trouble of getting it fully shipshape.
  15. Probably needs a refill on refrigerant, if the car is of an earlier date, that will be illegal.
  16. Excellent work! That kind of impact seems very plausible. It does underscore the deficiency in the current situation with the NYC weather record getting distorted.
  17. No argument, but surely the responsibility for the integrity of the weather records falls on the NWS. Imho, the Conservancy in this instance is an innocent bystander, they have no dog in this fight. As an aside, the site is really smothered, there is a 70 foot or so tree just to the east, along with the sheltering shrubbery, which really surrounds the fenced in site proper. I'd love to envision a control plot sited nearby without the vegetation. It could really help determine the impact of site overgrowth.
  18. Seems to be a regional phenomenon. Here in NYC, despite 90+ degree weather, I've yet to hear one, much less a multitude. Am still hoping, but fear a cicada bust, if there is such a thing.
  19. Afaik, the Conservancy only acts if there is a danger to people, but otherwise prefers to let nature do its own thing. So even if the weather station gets smothered by the surrounding growth, that is not a Conservancy problem.
  20. Think there is enough wiggle room in the specifications to allow that kind of difference in presentation. A 1 degree anomaly relative to a baseline that is shifting is hard to hang one hat on. It seems that we are just getting to the point where we can get really comprehensive SST measurements globally. Sadly, the clock starts now for this good data, all the prior data relies on sampling that then gets extended, so any anomaly discussions are still subject to wide error bars. I frankly think it is very impressive that so much has been learned despite the really spotty data. but I'm hopeful we'll do much better once we have comprehensive data over long periods. With luck, by 2050 it will all be well figured out.
  21. Seems a very firm viewpoint. Needs some very direct examples to be accepted. As the late Oliver Cromwell once memorably said 'I beseech you, by the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken'. Humility goes a lot further than proof by assertion.
  22. Cars assembled from spare parts cost at least 3x as much as the dealer charges. Spares are where the money is, is cars as well as in airplanes. So if you're spending your long weekend doing a suspension tear down, thank you, you're helping keep small US suppliers alive.
  23. Kind of sad, I walk by the Central Park site almost daily and even I, no weather expert, can see that the location is poor. Trees to the east shading the morning sun, more to the west to block any late rays,. How can anyone take measurements from here as representative? I'd be happier if they moved the thermometer to the Belvedere Castle pole, even if it is another 20' up.
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