etudiant

Very nice call!

Surely that is a divergence worth investigating. We all know that water vapor is the preeminent greenhouse 'gas', so a parched atmosphere just seems curious given the well above average temperatures we've seen. Does it mean the winds off Africa are unusually dry?

I would be happy to see a decent analysis of the 'divergence', which should be a piece of cake now that we have another 20+ years worth of tree rings to evaluate. I have no beef with current climate measures, the sea ice measures alone are pretty strong evidence. What is less convincing to me is the earlier stability claimed, it seems inconsistent with the historical record.

With no reflections on this paper, the credibility of all 'climate change' related documents is imho tainted at the source. The initial Mann 'hockeystick' paper in Nature glossed over that the same dendro evidence used to form the stick showed declining ring formation in the most recent era, which had been interpreted as periods of cooler weather. So that information was frog marched out of the paper, with a chart grafting modern temperature measures on the earlier tree ring data to create the 'hockeystick'. An honest presentation should have highlighted the divergence, which really produces a downward signal rather that the increase shown by the thermometer measures. Perhaps it just means tree ring data is not fit for the purpose of measuring temperatures. That in itself would be a useful, but afaik that analysis has not been done, nor have there been follow on studies to examine whether the 'divergence' has worsened or improved since the Mann Nature paper. As a former Wall Streeter, I'm pretty attuned to hard marketing. Prof Mann marketed too hard for me.

That is rather sobering. How does anyone separate the wheat from the chaff?

You know, people to leave your money to.

That is a very good catch. Almost doesn't look natural. Looks like a plane dumped a bunch of silver iodide in a straight line to seed the clouds... I'm saving the loops and going to talk to the director of the Hurricane Research Division about this. There was thing called project storm fury years ago where they did stuff like this. It moved so fast that aircraft dispensing silver iodide can be ruled out imho. Moreover, the track was straight, not wind distorted from what I could see. Very peculiar indeed. THIS ONE FROM TURTLE TAKES THE CAKE

Aircraft are made of aluminum, so they act as flying Faraday cages, they can be struck by lightning with no internal impact. The wings usually have trailing discharge wicks to leak off any excess charge. The main risk is flying into severe turbulence, so pilots will try to avoid thunderstorms and the associated anvil clouds.

Have to give a thumbs up to the Cedar Rapids home builders, the storm snapped pretty big trees but the houses appeared unscathed. That is pretty impressive for 100+mph sustained winds.

Best comment of the day and surely the most useful! Given the number of small systems crawling around, no regional forecast is really valid.

That seems to leave open the step of ensuring the models reflect reality. I'd have been happier if the paper had linked to actual historical data.

Sounds like she caught a Pipevine Swallowtail, they are still reasonably abundant, although disappointing as prey. I'm sure your cat would have much preferred a more substantial prey to offer to you, poor thing is probably mortified. Frankly, no brilliant thoughts, cats are predatory pets, they are born to hunt and kill things. Absent rats and mice, something else will do, squirrels, warblers, whatever.... Other than keeping the poor things in all the time, there is no solution afaik.

Lucky you, they are magical for a soft night!

Think we are late in the season for fireflies, they are more a late spring early summer phenomenon. I'm still hoping for stragglers here in NYC though.

How can one reasonably expect the sports business managers to 'figure this out', when that has not been achieved by any other US entity, whether business or government?

You're so lucky to have them. The Parks Dept here in NYC sprays religiously, which ensures that the biting bugs are nearly zilch in Central Park, but of course that chops the fireflies and other insects as well. Even the cicadas are by appointment only this year, I've heard maybe a couple in Central Park.

I'll know that the Federal Government accepts the reality of global warming when they refuse flood insurance for anyone not at least 10 feet above sea level. Looking at the beach front mega mansions on Long Island, that day has not yet come.

Note that as of July 27. 2020, area is only 3.959MM km **2, the lowest on record for the date and the earliest date ever for sub 4MM km**2..

Arctic ice area is lowest ever for the date, 4.082MM km**2. Area is probably a somewhat better measure of the ice level than extent..

It would be useful to show a growth zone map from 1950 vs the same today. Certainly NYC has become Virginia climate wise, although I have no idea whether places further north such as Watertown or Syracuse have warmed comparably. Has Virginia become more like Florida during this same interval? We commonly see birds in NYC today that would have been very unusual in 1950, obvious birds such as Cardinals. So nature is reacting to the changes, perhaps faster than the academicians.

Spot on! The Federal blank check for 'disaster relief' allows people to just ignore basic science and risk, building on unstable barrier islands as well as shore areas which should be kept free from development. Any sea level increase compounds the risk.

It is surprising how difficult it is to make even very short term forecasts for these thunderstorms. The various NYC weather forecasts had fraction of an inch precipitation and modest probabilities through the afternoon, only adjusted upward after 6 pm. Clearly there is still a lot of room for learning here, we're now talking possibly up to 2" for Manhattan.

Lovely map, albeit centered on Greenwich, England. The NYC scene is captured much less artistically but pretty well here: It is quite possible to see the comet from Manhattan, with the Central Park Reservoir track a good location, as it has a clear view. The comet was up perhaps 25*, less bright each night as it recedes from the sun, despite its being closest to earth on the 22nd. Incidentally, Saturn is showing beautifully as well currently, at opposition and with wide open rings.

Thanks for that ranking, looks like I missed the two best ones, just saw and was disappointed by Halley. Very much agree Neowise is much better. Sadly the astronomy sites show it dimming gradually ( https://cobs.si/analysis2?col=comet_id&id=1875&plot_type=0 ), even though it's closest to earth on July 22.

Does any long, long, long range model have any better skill? I'd be tempted to believe the CFS outlook simply because it is the only low ball forecast I've seen, everyone appears confident we'll have a well above average hurricane season.