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etudiant

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Everything posted by etudiant

  1. etudiant
    Hearing it as well, but still hazy sunshine and no rain thus far on the UES in Manhattan.
  2. etudiant
    Afaik, the NYC area expressways and parkways were designed to ensure that the commuters would be ready to kill by the time they got to their office. That helped ensure NYC's dominance in business negotiations. Alaska is just wonderful, your fancies are entirely justified.
  3. etudiant
    Is that not like betting on black after red has come up for the last ten throws, because 'it's bound to change'?
  4. etudiant
    Meanwhile, the rain we had hoped for here in NYC for this weekend has evaporated. Guess the models did not close. Very disappointing, we are headed towards drought conditions, with no relief in prospect based on the models.
  5. etudiant
    The issue to me is that it explicitly says local forecasts at the basin wide level are inadequate, that a global perspective is needed. That makes the problem very much more difficult. Does anyone have a respectable global model?
  6. etudiant
    Is the wildfire impact enough to off set the reductions in smoke from the various anti pollution initiatives? It would help to get some real world data as to the reductions, measured at various particulate sizes, in atmospheric pollution. Without some baselines, it is difficult to generate a robust thesis.
  7. etudiant
    Also, the May normals used are from the more recent 30 years, so elevated from the earlier averages. May seemed warm and dry here in NYC, certainly more pleasant weather than in most recent Mays.
  8. etudiant
    Have to say that this is disappointing. It recognizes the warmth in the Atlantic and then says it does not count because the Pacific is having an unusual El nino. Basically says only global models have value, basin wide analysis is inadequate. Guess I'm not cut out to be a meteorologist, I've no grasp of global models..
  9. etudiant
    What on earth is burning in Nova Scotia? I have this 'Anne of Green Gables' image of a mostly rural farming oriented province, does not seem a promising site for massive wildfires.
  10. etudiant
    This is quite wonderful, a discussion of the various factors that indicate an El Nino developing, done in real time, by experts who are trying to forecast the future based on all available public sources. It's especially relevant because there is as yet no consensus as to the details, which is what most of us pay attention to. The possible impact on the Atlantic hurricane season is a separate topic, which however will surely gather increasing attention.
  11. etudiant
    Just awful, but surely not the heater's fault if the electric wiring it is plugged into goes up in flames. As an airplane designer once said: It is really hard to make something fool proof because we keep getting better fools.
  12. etudiant
    Surely an electric heater would have served you better. Recommend the oil core heaters, gentle heat, no fire risk, keeps the room cozy without heating the whole house.
  13. etudiant
    Is +1.4-1.8 really a Super El Nino? Or is there an accepted measure for the overall excess heat content of the tropical Pacific ocean? We do seem to be migrating towards a warm belt across the tropical Pacific, so less pressure differentials. Are there any accessible models for this?
  14. etudiant
    Interesting that Antarctic sea ice is building up much more slowly than usual, to the point that global sea ice extent is at record lows for the date. https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
  15. etudiant
    Aiui, the most comparable event to Sandy for NYC was the 1821 hurricane, so statistically we're ok this century.
  16. etudiant
    Has to be just stunning burn area, we are at least 1000 miles away from the source of the smoke,
  17. etudiant
    Thank you for posting this. We don't pay enough attention to these historical extremes of weather, so we get caught out when they happen again.
  18. etudiant
    No need. Just wear a P100 mask, you'll at least breather easier. In these post Covid days, you'll simply appear prudent. No claims though that your eyes will be any less irritated.
  19. etudiant
    They are also in a multi year dry spell so their reservoirs are seriously depleted. This is supposed to be their rainy season, so they face a difficult summer.
  20. etudiant
    Why not, the interval was only 10 years '82 - '92. I see no reason why 8 years would not suffice, so help me understand please.
  21. etudiant
    Why cooler? Hotter and more soggy seems equally likely?
  22. etudiant
    How does that work given that he is on a pay for access site?
  23. etudiant
    I remember a useful book 'How to lie with statistics', by Darrell Huff. I'm glad it is on the NY Central Park mandatory reading list.
  24. etudiant
    Will await the results, but Bastardi did project exceptional weather for March a little while back. His forecast was held up to ridicule, perhaps prematurely?.
  25. etudiant
    Thus far just very light snow in Manhattan, nothing sticking, too warm.
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