etudiant

Interesting, I use https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0Q-0-48, they have much less precip. Are there standards for what the radars show?

The radar says I'm almost done, just one more band to go. So I'm not hopeful of any more than an inch at best.

Wherever it is, it is not here in Manhattan. We're getting very light snow, maybe at an inch every 3 hours rate. Temperatures are around freezing, so stuff melts or sticks, depending on where it lands. We're nowhere close to any 3" forecast. No dings on the weather service, their maps told the tale, it is more a reproach to all the people who tried to make this into something it was not.

I stand corrected, there is some snow in Manhattan now. I'g guess a quarter inch of wet slop on the ground, maybe building up to as much as an inch if the radar holds. Still not close to the 3-6" hoped for, but we'll be happy with what we got.

True, but not always associated with 3-6" snow cover forecasts. Just looking at the radars, it seems a very big stretch.

If you go outside in Manhattan, you won't see any snow, just slightly wet streets. I'd be delighted if we get an inch of snow cover out of this. Right now it looks to be a Nothing Burger.

Still a goose egg here in Manhattan. If we're going to get the advertised 3"+, there'd better be serious banding.

Just wet streets in Manhattan, no snow apparent at all as of 3.15PM.

Was there not a fable about 'The boy who cried wolf'? It seems that the pressure to get clicks is overriding any concerns about credibility longer term or sense of professional responsibility.

Well, you're probably reasonable well placed to avoid any storm surge, certainly better than I'd thought. I've no idea what the aftermath of a Florida hurricane is like, do people get together to pick up the pieces or is it 'Lord of Flies'? Certainly a learning experience for the kids.

Honestly, if you have kids and expect a potential 10' storm surge, you should get out. Life is too precious to be stubborn.

Exactly! People know this and consequently prefer to risk their lives by riding out the storm, just to avoid losing all their possessions to criminals and vandals.

Trouble is that for most people, their home is all they have. Leaving it vacant and at the mercy of the elements and of passers by is a huge step. Imho, people would be more willing to evacuate if they had some assurance that the authorities had their back, that their property would be watched, so at least it would not be looted by the time they were allowed to return.

There was a very good illustration map of the Sarasota area in a post yesterday, which allowed one to see the streets progressively inundated as the surge went from nothing to 10 feet. I know zip about Florida, so no idea whether your friend's location is covered. In any case, maps and good models exist. Good luck!!

Surely the most likely is under 10". We have all the makings of a non event winter, what would produce a near normal result?

Imho, there is little to be learned from the further evolution of Ernesto. Rather we need to understand how come high Atlantic SSTs are not translating into more and better hurricanes. Right now, the various forecasts appear to show little skill at best. Does anyone have a possibly better approach? Asking, pretty please!

Has Rhode Island been considered or even the CT coast past New Haven? These areas are a little less accessible from the big cities, but still quite wonderful.

Pretty sure Peregrine strikes kill the victim, but beyond that, they usually start with the head, which kills quickly. However, other raptors are less considerate, so it is not unknown.

Not sure that follows. I see no reason why people back then would hike their numbers. Maybe the current models have weaknesses instead.

Was Beryl considered to be 'fast moving'? Afaik, the storm was only going about 10 mph when it hit the coast.

It should be called the Irish shot. in honor of its creator.

Iirc, we had a similar situation a little over a year ago, possibly April, which had a cool spell that raised the odds on a below normal month. That did not happen because the last part of the month was warm enough to keep the AN trend intact.

Excellently illuminating comment. Thank you!

Seems to me that JB uses analogs extensively, sometimes that works super, Sandy being the prime example, sometimes (perhaps more often than not) it does not. So he is one of the sources that amateurs like me try to keep up with, recognizing his biases. I'd guess that for his paying members, just one outlier call that eventuates will pay for a century's worth of subscriptions. So Perhaps consider him as the counterpoint opinion, often astray, but still useful.

Guess nobody told people in India that their fertility was under threat. That said, the catastrophic slump in birth rates is pervasive across the industrialized world, with South Korea and Taiwan in the van, but Europe, North America, Japan and China all well below sustainable fertility levels. Maybe the fault is of the media,which push unreasonable life style expectations, or maybe its aliens. In any case, it is not a fossil fuel problem, the Ultra Orthodox and the Amish in the US both seem to have maintained historic fertility rates while surrounded by the near childless..