etudiant

Thank you, that is a real contribution to keeping the record straight.

Forecast is for heavy rain Dec 14th, so if your contractor works Saturdays, you should be able to find your leak. That said, my limited experience with leaks is that the water usually drips down some distance away from the actual leak, so look around for all potential culprits. I found very high grade clear silicon caulk a very effective help, sealing generously between the chimney and the flashing, especially where the flashing abutted the chimney. The contractor had wanted to take down the bedroom ceiling, as that was where the leak was showing, so I was forced to try to find a less disruptive solution. Fortunately the roof had a flat section that allowed access to the chimney, as it would have been much more involved had ladders and scaffolds been required..

It would be good to have the NYC annual snow fall totals for the 1600s and 1700s, as that covers the 'Little Ice Age' interval. My guess is that snow totals were above the recent 50" averages, but surely there is some historical record somewhere.

Although the map is not clear, the NOHRSC estimate is at least a factor of 10 too high. Central Park had barely enough snow to coat the grass, the 0.2" number given initially looked spot on to me. It is not confidence inspiring when 'final revisions' are obviously wrong.

Has anyone had any experience with the new IBM GRAF weather tracking/forecasting system? It seems to be inaccessible to ordinary mortals, but does it even perform at competitive levels with the Euro or the GFS?

Manhattan UES did not see much, a few desultory flakes disappearing on the wet ground. No slush at all.

Lot of moving parts to this. Difficult to be confident here in a snow forecast three days out. Fortunately I don't have to drive anywhere Wednesday morning, so can consider the outcome with equanimity.

Seems to be mostly a raw weather event here in Manhattan, thirties, windy and raining. No substantial snow thus far.

Very nice paper, thank you for posting this. I'm intrigued that the warm pool has been tracked since the start of the 1900s, a more than doubled warm area is massive and deserves to be highlighted more.

Saw that phenomenon in progress this morning in NYC Central Park , where there are lots of Ginkos. In still air, their leaves were just showering down, so by the afternoon, the trees were almost bare, with the leaves carpeting the ground right under the trees. It was very pretty in the afternoon sun, the green and gold leaves encircling the tree trunks.

quiet bar playing Xmas music= bad credit risk

I can see the appeal, but can't see how that type of place could earn enough to stay in business.

All these links refer to the same Bloomberg article, which has very little detail. It is easy to store solar heat for decades, just grow some trees. The new molecule, cost unspecified, stores and releases some unquantified amount of heat, but there is nothing about how fast or how the release is controlled. At this point, the article seems click bait, rather than useful reporting.

Afaik, the issue here is that incoming energy from the sun is more short wave, which is not as obstructed by greenhouse gases as are the longer wave length heat radiations, The effect is same energy incoming, less outgoing, resulting in a heating effect. Note that this leaves lots of room for discussion, as we have no full agreement on the effects of water vapor, the predominant green house gas, or of clouds, or of atmospheric convection, ocean heat flows etc etc. It is a very complex system and it is frankly a major achievement to have it modeled as well as it is. Major uncertainties still remain, but the existence of greenhouse effects is not one of them.

It flourishes still in NYC, hordes of kids shepherding adults in silly costumes. Fortunately nobody has to walk far from one apartment block to the next.

Still hugely impressive, 2000 pounds in a 200 day growing season requires 10 pounds a day average weight gain, so probably closer to 50 pounds per day at the peak. That plant might as well be directly connected to a tap, it must guzzle like fury. Wonder if it gets warm because it is growing so fast.

Thank you, csnavywx, very helpful links. Even without ability to pass the paywall, the summaries and the charts tell the story. The charts especially are pretty alarming. Sadly, seen that coal fired power plant construction is still very strong, particularly in China and India, i see no possibility of arresting the CO2 uptrend. We will see this future, like it or not.

That is a stunning change. Is there a reference which you could point me to? I've seen some reports, but nothing that suggests global loss of alkalinity on that scale.

It is not obvious that human style intelligence is a common feature anywhere, afawk it has evolved just once in the several hundred million years that multi cellular life has existed on this earth. Actually the constraint is even stricter, industrial technology is only a few hundred years old, so about a millionth of the multi cellular life span. That suggests intelligent life as we know it is a very fleeting apparition, even if we assume that it has longevity once achieved. However, as noted, the lack of wisdom which humans are showing in their dealing with their own biosphere strongly suggests longevity may be limited for our technological society.

Thank you for this more complete explanation, although it is really over my head. For a novice such as me, TCHP and MPI are not familiar terms, so there are gaps in my understanding of the process. But I gather the hurricane formation is much more chaotically competitive than I'd thought, so that very small vortices sometimes play a pivotal role. Is that correct?

Rare is a better term. I mentioned some others above: Pam, Patricia, Wilma, Gilbert and Allen all had similar structures. There have been a number of others that developed a super intense >5nm micro-vortex eyewall within a much larger banded concentric envelope. Still, it's not something we see with regards to such extreme sub 890 hpa estimated intensities on a yearly basis. Think perhaps once every 5-10 years globally within the satellite era. Thank you, a very informative summary. Has there been any explanation or modeling that would shed light on how this comes about? Why and how would a micro vortex spin up within the eye?

Don't think I've ever seen something like this before. Is it usual in cyclones?

Thank you for your ongoing excellent coverage of the Atlantic storm season.

Thank you, that is a well documented piece of work.

I'd thought that the primary objection was not denial of the current evidence, but rather claims that similar or warmer conditions were in effect in prior recorded history, for instance during the Norse settlements of Greenland.. That then translates into a claim that there is a natural warm cold cycle, which the current models fail to capture. The Norse settlement was not small, it was big enough to be allocated its own bishop and they were able to sustain cattle and sheep. Presumably there could be some isotope measurements possible in stalactites or glacier ice which provides some guidance on this issue, but I've not seen anything that really digs into the question.