snowmagnet

This is good news, right?

I haven’t made butterscotch cookies in a long day. Sounds like a great snow day plan. Just need that snow day...

Same here. I bounce between the 2 threads anyway. I think the goal for this thread was to look more closely at specific threats in the next week or 2. I appreciate when people show the specific models and what they are indicating, whether cold, rain or frozen.

I’m feeling good about getting a big snow storm in the next couple of weeks. We’ve seen hints about a potential storm around the 24th and the 27th-30th for a while now. As others have noted, the lack of consensus in ensembles and ops clearly shows that the models can’t figure out all the moving parts. It’s pretty infuriating that the midweek thing will likely be rain, but I’m optimistic about the 28th. And it’s not a weekend! That would be a nice change of pace!

Look at the inch or 2 we tracked for the 12th-13th? It became 8-12.

Agreed! It might help to mitigate the meltdowns if we were looking at more specific threats in the medium range while keeping this thread for long term patterns.

Thanks for popping in and spreading some calm on this thread! I was hoping you would post this morning, but assumed jet lag. Glad you made it back safely.

But we typically score better totals with a Miller A, if I understand correctly. We typically have to have a perfect track around here to get the best storms.

I’m confused- I thought we tend to do better with Miller A’s than B’s.

I feel the same way. I'm likely wrong, but I think the models are still trying to figure out this pattern. I tend to stay optimistic through the winter. I keep hoping for something to show up again for the storm around Thursday or this weekend. If not, then onto the next week. We still aren’t tracking February.

Head up towards Stowe. My boss is spending next week in Smugglers Notch and they have had a ton of snow. He’s been following it all winter.

GFS crap warm map and the suggestion of no epic blocking. Showmesnow is still in Vegas so no early morning and you and Bob went to sleep.

I thought last week’s was quite an event. Overperformers and surprise 8-12 feet snows are really fun to track. If they were all like January ‘16, it wouldn’t be an interesting hobby. People always tell me I should move to somewhere that has snow on snow all winter. But that wouldn’t be fun. I love the MidAtlantic because it’s an adventure every winter. And we do Coastals pretty well when we have the right ingredients.

I’m not sure what happened, but the NWS now has us no higher than 34 all weekend in Fairfax. Snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain. We were supposed to be in the 50’s. If this is accurate, we should be under an Advisory at least. I’ve seen many storms here that continues snow and sleet when it was supposed to change to rain. I won’t be surprised if we stay frozen for much of this. Even after the rain, a flash freeze on wet roads is going to be a mess on Sunday and Monday

The NWS forecast for Fairfax is snow with rain and snow on Saturday, changing to rain Saturday night, with a high of 41 before dropping through the day on Sunday. That is significantly colder than the 50’s that was forecasted earlier in the week. My concern is the icing Sunday and Monday, even in this area, from the rain plus the melted snow. I would think there would be more advisories on Sunday for our area.

It will be great to have you back talking about snow!

I was wondering about Showmesnow too. Wondering if he’s staying in Vegas until we another good snow threat!

A week or 2 ago we were in the light purple and pale greens. Much nicer colors on snow maps. But I realize it was just 45 day snow fantasies. Thanks for your great insight.

That’s beautiful! Thanks for sharing

Is there any ice or snow earlier on Saturday?

I was surprised to see Arlington close on Tuesday and announce quickly today too! However, sometimes it takes 1 bad decision and they try to repair for the next several years. PW Co schools had several people in accidents many years ago because of ice so they started closing for everything. FCPS started closing pretty quickly after the #closefcps storm when they didn’t delay or close. Lots of staff and parents in accidents, buses stuck, etc. I wonder if Arlington had a lot of problems on Nov 15th and don’t want a repeat.

I was confused that you were getting big flakes now and then remembered you are currently in C’Ville!

We can’t get a significant storm on a weekday, so this makes sense. January 26th is a weekend, so we will have precipitation. Weekend rain has been quite a theme this year.

It’s sticking to the side streets in Fairfax.

I know it's possible, but I was wondering if it is still showing up on the forecast maps for next week.