snowmagnet

I read somewhere that the FV3 was supposed to replace the GFS in January, but then it was delayed because of the shutdown. I was curious about it too, so thanks for sharing the info you have.

So tonight we have the Euro ops, GEFS, GFS, and JMA, correct? Any others on board yet? Hope they are still there in the morning.

This is a good week for that! Just get it back by Monday, I’m assuming.

I’m missing having the short-term thread, so can someone summarize what the next week looks like? There was a discussion of a possible rain snow mix around Thursday, then something next weekend, and then something around the 11th. Are we punting all of this until after the 13th? Thanks!

I don’t find your posts a problem. I think you probably ask a lot of questions that other people have but don’t bother asking. If I have a general weather question, I will try to search for answers myself. If I can’t find it, I will ask.

I know that almost everyone called for a snowy east coast winter (except for maybe the Farmers almanac and the groundhog). Learning from this forum really helps me to understand how difficult it is to try to make a long-range forecast, especially this year! You would think that long range forecasts would get better over time! I appreciate your optimism and also feel very confident in more snow this year!

If you look at the top 10 DC snowstorms, most of them have been since 1979. A lot of us on this forum have probably seen the majority of them. Although DC didn’t calculate well at National airport, 2016 was probably the biggest 1 time event for much of the forum. And that was just a transient -NAO. I would call it a Winter if we could get 2’ at one time. We all are probably hoping for a HECS this year. Or every year.

Several years ago, DT had declared winter over near the end of February and we got at least 1-2 pretty good snow storms afterwards. I typically read his articles and watch the videos to learn things, but he has some arrogance issues.

I am too, but I’m glad it’s not going to be as long as we thought. We often have some very warm days before big snow storms.

This may be a bit of banter, but whatever. I love the amazing job of analysis on here by several different people. That’s why so many of us spend much of the day reading this forum. Obviously this Science isn’t an exact Science or Mets would be able to accurately predict the temperature and amount of rain or snow on a daily basis. I interpret for a living (American Sign Language). Interpreters are notorious for judging other interpreters because they would have done it differently. But often there are MANY correct interpretations based on the input! Basically everyone on here is interpreting the computer patterns, NAO, and 500 mb charts, etc., based on one’s perspective. And some people will judge and criticize because they see things differently or just don’t like the input that the computer models give out. I know that a lot of people have skin in the game because they predicted a snowy winter, but Weather will do what it wants, no matter what we want. All of that to say... I really appreciate the variety of analysis and opportunity to learn from some really talented people. I will continue to be optimistic that we will have a snowy February, regardless of the long range because we have generally overperformed pretty well. And we really only need a really good pattern set up for a short time to give us something like Jan ‘16.

Showmesnow mentioned the jumpiness of the GEFS lately, not to mention to Op, which makes it unreliable (more than usual). Also, wasn’t the fv3 supposed to take over last month but didn’t because of the Shutdown? I wonder when that will happen now.

Cool picture.

I felt so confident about our snow chances this winter that I suggested to my dad that he get a snowblower. He is 73 and I didn’t want him having a heart attack from shoveling snow. He got it the day before our big January storm. He told me he would send me the bill if we don’t get more snow. Lol.

Snowing again in Fairfax.

PD weekend.

At the beginning of January, we all thought we wouldn't really see anything until February. I know that was true for some people, but all in all, we fared fairly well for January. Especially for that official reading at National airport during our 8-12" event.

Pixie dust snow in Fairfax, but still fairly moderate.

It looked like some people outside our area posted some negative comments about overnight models going downhill. But I figured it was a GFS op and just ignored it and moved on. Snow today should give people some hope.

This is a very nice surprise snow day! Bob mentioned that we might bootleg our way to climo this year, and here is another example. Although, I'm still holding out hope for an Epic February.

This is why the NWS put out a very strong advisory about travel and the reason some school systems closed. I think it was 2016 when there was a very light dusting of snow around rush hour and an abundance of accidents. When the ground is very cold, it's creates terribly icy conditions.

I realized you were joking... I edited.

I was confused about the Bristow comment, but I guess it was just a joke. Your posts are very positive and the analysis, along with Bob and PSU are amazing. Sometimes it’s not good news, but you give us relevant information and it typically tries to find the glad half full. I look forward to your morning updates.

Split flow + blocking = Many sleepless nights in February

Too bad we’ve been burned by the weeklies all winter. But, if we can get a KU pattern... maybe there is hope.

Actually a dusting can be a disaster on very cold roads. That happened a few years ago during rush hour and caused a lot of accidents.