snowmagnet

I’m trying to get a handle on what’s possibly coming down the pike after our February thaw. I’ve seen maps for Feb 8th, 11th, and 14th. Is there any support from the Euro or is it just the GFS abs fv3 showing some coastal activity down the road?

I didn’t pay as much attention last winter because of family issues, but I feel like we were teased with a lot of fantasy storms also.

I see. Earlier this week it was looking like it would be much later in the day. Thanks for the update.

If it’s right in the middle of the day, it shouldn’t affect schools unless it will be more than an inch or so.

What is the timing for this?? And I’d it only north of DC?

Those of us who meltdown without snow have to have stamina every winter in the MA. At least this winter is better than last.

I’m looking forward to a few days of warm weather. We typically get an end of January thaw for a few days to a week, but that hasn’t happened this year or last. And we often have a 70 degree day just before a major snowstorm.

This is quite a beautiful snow! It’s stiill coming down quite hard in Fairfax, but we only have a little over an inch.

At this point, I’m not sure models will really give us any more than we already know. They won’t be exact. We just need to see what happens tomorrow and hope for the best! I’m more curious to see if we really get much rain or just flip to snow. Que sera sera...

Yeah!! I’m absolutely not giving up on this winter. Not that I ever give up until April... Long range forecasts have been awful this year, so I think maybe this is gonna be a Forest Gump kind of winter. You never know what you’re gonna get.

It happens pretty regularly around here. People say “winter is over”, and then we get hit with one or 2 more storms that pile up quickly and then melt.

March snow like November snow. It doesn't count March snow is awesome. Just when you think Winter is over, we get a surprise. Also, Fairfax County schools have no days off in March so I’m counting on snow to linger this year.

FV3 gives Fairfax Co around 4”. Works for me!

I’m taking the Jeb approach and being optimistic. We are getting shellacked and then will have some bitter cold for a couple of days.

I agree! The Euro does this quite frequently. I’m seeing on Twitter (Cranky) that the GFS has snow for us on Tuesday night. It is way too early to give up on anything. Even if it is a few hours of rain changing to snow, following by a deep freeze for 2 -3 days. That can be fairly significant in our area.

Are you talking about Feb 2nd?

Besides the almighty Euro, do other models have any similarities?

Sounds perfect. Wait a second. We are looking at a possibly on Jan 30th and February 5th?? Hmmm. That sounds familiar. Wouldn’t that be amazing to do all over again.

Nice! I just need some potential. It gets me through winter.

You are the best! That’s a digital 10”-12” IMBY. Thank you!

I’m not an expert at all, but I do remember hearing from Mets that we had quite a few storms that year that produced because the PV acted as a substitute for a -NAO

Thanks for that bit of insight. I think 2” on 4/5 of the EPS is huge considering the past couple of days of nada. I keep telling my snow-loving friends that we “might” get something around the 30th. I agree that January isn’t usually that great, (except for those 2 amazing storms). I moved back into the DC area after college in ‘94. I was so glad I didn’t miss ‘96. It was one of my most memorable storms. And then 2016...exactly 3 years ago today. I’m still holding out hope for all of us to do well the next 2 months... as if we have any control over the weather.

What are people seeing in terms of temperatures around here next week? I’ve seen on Judah Cohen and others twitter pages that the PV is dropping down early next week. We were looking at maps of below zero temps for a couple of days next week. Is that still showing? Bernie Rayno thinks something has a chance coming easy next week. I’ll take any positives, so I’m hoping he’s right. I’m still hanging hope onto something around the 30th. Hoping that the models will get it together after this storm rolls through tomorrow.

It can only get better from here, right? Don’t answer that.

Did the tpv not split into baby vortices? I also saw something about it reforming and then splitting again at some point over the coming weeks. I’m guessing that is not a good thing for us... unless we can get a -NAO in the meantime. Also, I get that Feb is prime climo here and you haven’t had much at all in your backyard, so that is frustrating. However, I feel like we can do pretty well in March, especially early on. They don’t typically stick around, but I think March is the new December. We have seen some pretty good snows here in March the past 10-20 years.