snowmagnet

People always complain to me about this kind of weather in January or February. It is a little annoying at times, but it’s also par for the course in the DC area. I don’t mind if it’s short-lived, especially when we are tracking snow within the week. We don’t always break records, but 60’s to around 70 happens most years, often just before a big pattern change or snow storm. I remember being in shorts for New Years one year back in the late 70’s (I was a kid). I’d rather have a warm spell now than near Christmas.

My 16 yr old daughter is in shorts and asked for the AC.

I just saw this. My mom died of the same cancer - Glioblastoma. It’s a really deadly form of cancer. Same as John McCain.

I find it hard to trust the new GFS after last winter when it was the FV3.

I remember, during one or both of those years, we didn’t have good luck with a - NAO, but got lucky with a 50/50 or PV acting as a -NAO. I don’t remember the details, but it was a fun couple of months both years. I followed DT at the time and learned a lot about the teleconnections. I didn’t find this forum until later in 2015. If we can have something along those lines, we should be pretty happy around here. It’s at least, very encouraging. Thank you (and others on here) for all of your long range analysis. It is really appreciated by those of us who don’t know how to read these maps.

I've been reading Judah Cohen's twitter feed and he seems to be relying on the GFS and predicting the end of winter if it's correct. Hopefully the EURO knows what's up.

It’s been snowing for about an hour in western Fairfax Co. Grass is covered. Parking lot in my neighborhood is getting white.

That would be great, but elementary will be getting out right in the middle of it. I hope Fairfax Co closes early, but I still packed my gloves, scraper and brush last night. I work in HS.

I’m already down to 36.7 degrees just west of Fairfax city. It’s been steadily declining for a couple of hours.

Considering I’ve seen less than ½” so far, and we have nothing else to look forward to, I’m Jebman optimistic. It gets me through winter.

Nice! I remember people were talking about something around the 7th-8th after Christmas. I noticed this a lot in 2014 and 2015. The Euro would show a storm 10 days out, lose it in the mid range, and then bring it back a few days before. Hopefully we can count on the next one that Bob mentioned for the 17th-20th.

PWC will close tonight. I’d place bets.

I’m personally getting excited about the best snow I’ve seen all year. I live just west of Fairfax City city and we are looking pretty good on the latest Euro and NAM. Hoping for heavy rates to cool us down enough for a couple of wet inches.

Is the timing still mid-afternoon? It’s going to be terrible for schools as students are getting out between 2:30-4 pm.

Definitely for Fairfax County. We have had about ½ inch total this season.

Last winter completely sucked. Go back and look at your comments last year. I would suggest that this winter is much better considering it is not even January 1st and there is always hope. Even if we punt the next 2 weeks, there is still time for things to change. The long-term modeling has proven to be awful lately, so there is still time for things to turn around. I am always the optimist. Sorry for the bit of banter.

When will we have a January long-term thread? It seems there is not much left to track in December...

Sorry I missed that! I remember a discussion about it a couple of weeks ago, but now that it’s only a week away, it’s getting exciting!

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe this would be around the 10 year anniversary of the 2009 storm. That would be pretty awesome if it happens.

What did the 13th-15th look like on the overnight models? I know it’s 7-8 days away, but....

I‘m curious about the performance of the GFS since it was upgraded to the FV3 in June. Last year, the FV3 had all sorts of fantasy storms that never materialized. Does anyone know if it is more trustworthy at this point?

Hey everyone! I stopped by the forum to see if there is any cool down in sight, but it’s not looking good. I usually don’t mind summers around here, but I was in the UK and Ireland for almost 3 weeks (it was between 55- 75 degrees), and came back to this nasty heat and humidity. Can’t wait to start tracking snow, but this increasing heat can’t be good for our winter prospects...

PA likely has more potential for snow the rest of this season, but the majority of people on this forum appreciate all of your analysis. I stopped reading all the stupid posts yesterday complaining about the winter potential. That was absolutely ridiculous! Discussing snow potential is the reason people follow this forum! As if any of us can actually wish the atmosphere to snow by our discussion. If people don’t want to discuss or analyze, don’t log on. It’s pretty simple.

It is beautiful outside. If we could stay dry and 60’s-70’s for the rest of March, I’d happily wait until November to start tracking snow again.