snowmagnet

Was that the Bob Chill storm? That's the last time we had anything good around here.

I thought it was starting Sunday evening through Monday (or Tuesday morning if we’re lucky). That was what I saw on the Euro. Regardless, it’s only about 5 days away!

Remember when there was 12 hours in between the Euro runs? I know the 0Z and 18 z are not as good, but it helps to have a little something in between.

Yeah. I recall that Fairfax had around 24" with the 1st round and about 12" a few days later. Having close to 3 feet was definitely memorable, and I remember the flooding as well. Couldn't even get anywhere around the beltway. Jan 2016 was the biggest snowfall I've seen from one storm. I had 30" at my house.

Am I wrong that our biggest storms are generally modeled this far out? We never get a huge storm that pops up 96 hours before. If this has happened, I haven't seen it. I know we have had the rug pulled too many times to count, but...

If I remember correctly, our biggest storms (Dec. 2009, Feb 2010, Jan 2016), were pretty consistently modeled 5-7 days ahead of time. We were only tracking who was getting 18", 24", or 36"!

That's hilarious. I can relate!

So what type of storm is this potentially, other than a Coastal? I saw mention of a Heather A on Anthony Masiello's twitter comments. But then, someone mentioned a Miller B. My understanding is that we don't do well with a Miller B. I have never heard of a Heather A.

I was wondering the same. It doesn't make sense. It's still sleeting in Fairfax - no snow yet.

Didn’t January 2016 agree a week out?

From 24” to 2.4” is more than a slow leak.

Sounds about right- Jonah’s Wintry Mix. Confess. Did you buy a snowblower and curse us?

Is that snow hole over Ji’s house?

I caught Jay’s FB post late last night after the epic GFS run, so I knew there would be a lot to read through this morning. We always need perfect ingredients to get a nice coastal storm around here, which is what the Euro showed on Wed/Thursday and what the GFS has now shown for a couple of runs. I do agree with someone else who says that the Euro often shows a storm in the long-term, loses it in the medium range and then brings it back. I also recall a few winters recently that the Euro has not done great, which some have attributed to the strong Pacific. I’m hoping that the GFS is on to something because we all could use some purples, pinks, and greens around here. So I guess we all just hold our breath until 12z...

It would be better to score at least 1 warning level event next week.

I don't understand all the meteorological teleconnections, but I do know enough that the raging pac jet is a really bad thing. I thought we were in good shape with a -NAO, -AO, etc, but when I saw the "pac puke" coming back this year, I knew we were in trouble. I remember after 2016, it seemed that none of the long term models had any accuracy at predicting and I heard mets explaining that it was the extremely strong pacific jet wreaking havoc on long-term modeling. I guess that is what is happening again and why we can't get any accuracy in the long-term. Are there any teleconnections to predict when that might slow down or is that tied to whether the PNA is positive or negative? I know we could use a +PNA with our blocking.

If I remember correctly, last week there was a signal for something around the 20-22nd. I would think that it is good that it is still there, or is back. But we still have another week to wait.

Do I still get 21" on the 27th?

Bring that a little south, please!

I'm ok with this... we are picking up our new puppy up your way in Hampstead the weekend of the 15th and I have been stressing over not being able to get there in case of snow. It can snow the 12th and after the 16th...

But the one most likely to produce a major storm. It's always threading the needle around here.

We are just right for Miller A's

Still 58 in Fairfax. I love seeing drastic temperature drops, but I’m not staying up for this one.

It’s raining much earlier than I had expected based on what I read yesterday. I can only imagine that doesn’t bode well to get a changeover to snow. I guess the best we can hope for is snow showers on Friday.

I was trying to remember when this storm was. I went into a Caps game in Landover in a warm rainstorm. When we came out, everyone was freezing and we couldn’t find our car on the parking lot. That was a really memorable day.