snowmagnet

It's pretty moderately snowing big flakes here in Fairfax/Centreville, just west of FFX City. Hoping the snow lasts a while longer before the changeover. On the Euro, we were fairly consistently on the western edge of the line of "have" and "have a heck of lot less". I just measured 1.75" I think thats more than last year's total.

I know everyone here is looking for something to keep us in the game tomorrow. Living in the DMV for almost all of my life has shown me that winter storms around here (especially coastals) are pretty unpredictable. All week I’ve known that I could get anywhere from 1-12” IMBY depending on the Low. At this point, 12” is not in the cards for me, but I’ve seen plenty of storms that have significantly over performed when everyone thought it was over. Most of us find much of the fun in tracking winter storms. So whatever happens tomorrow, we had a good early storm to get us ready for a potentially eventful winter. At least some of you will have plenty to measure tomorrow.

Might help me in western FFX

It seemed like no one was posting on this page for several days. Now we are all like "when do we start tracking the next storm?"

It seems really quiet on here all of a sudden. I guess we are all on pins and needs waiting for the almighty Euro....

I’m not sure about that. My mom would always watch channel 4 and I couldn’t stand him. I remember, even as a kid and teen, he would usually underestimate totals and then constantly have to increase totals. I might have a slightly skewed memory from being a snow lover since birth, but he never earned my trust. I grew up in Charles Co where we were often underestimated because we were south of the Fall line, but in many cases, we ended up with colder temperatures and MUCH higher totals than forecasted.

And then he would have to keep upping his totals every half an hour.

Over

You must live in the 20” plus zone. Dec 2009 was about 2 ft at my house in Fairfax Co. I doubt this one will beat it.

I think a lot of us are feeling that way. It's been a completely sucky year and Mother Nature needs to throw us a bone. I lost my father last month, not due to COVID, and tracking a snowstorm in December is the most fun I've had for quite a while!

I'm just west of Fairfax City. You most definitely will see more snow this year.

I was thinking the same thing. I'm in FFX county just west of FFX City inside that comma zone. We almost always do very well in these kinds of coastals. The maps usually underestimate the frontogenesis dynamics.

I wouldn't necessarily count out Southern MD. They often get overlooked in these kinds of storms. I grew up in Charles County and often they get surprised with higher totals in Coastal lows.

Nice!

Jan 2016 did. About a week out. The only question was, who would get 2 feet and who would get 3!

I know it's still early in the season and I am less than a weather amateur, but I know we have had several significant snowstorms just a couple of days after having 60's and 70's.

I just recall Dec 17, 2009 that started one of our biggest seasons.

If I remember correctly, isn't Dec. 17th the anniversary of our Dec. 2009 storm? Forgive me if this was already discussed. I haven't read through all the pages...

Geez. All but 2 have more than 2 inches IMBY. I would love for some of this to fall on a weekday!

That is quite a harsh cut off for frozen. 0.5” in Fairfax/Loudoun and over 10” just an hour to the NW or NE?

I find it hard to trust the new GFS after last winter when it was the FV3.

I remember, during one or both of those years, we didn’t have good luck with a - NAO, but got lucky with a 50/50 or PV acting as a -NAO. I don’t remember the details, but it was a fun couple of months both years. I followed DT at the time and learned a lot about the teleconnections. I didn’t find this forum until later in 2015. If we can have something along those lines, we should be pretty happy around here. It’s at least, very encouraging. Thank you (and others on here) for all of your long range analysis. It is really appreciated by those of us who don’t know how to read these maps.

I've been reading Judah Cohen's twitter feed and he seems to be relying on the GFS and predicting the end of winter if it's correct. Hopefully the EURO knows what's up.

Last winter completely sucked. Go back and look at your comments last year. I would suggest that this winter is much better considering it is not even January 1st and there is always hope. Even if we punt the next 2 weeks, there is still time for things to change. The long-term modeling has proven to be awful lately, so there is still time for things to turn around. I am always the optimist. Sorry for the bit of banter.