Newman

Current mean on the GEFS for the 23rd system is very impressive being 8 days out. Some huge hits, and the miss right now would be a SE scraper, not NW and a cutter.

There are some huge indi GEFS members this run. Some faster on the 23rd, some slower on the 24th. Multiple hits, and the lean right now would be a SE scraper, not NW and a cutter. The mean 8 days out is an advisory, borderline warning level, snowstorm

Christmas Day wind chills

Closed low opens up and just squeaks by to our SE that it's mainly a coastal bomb. It was so close to being a widespread MECS

GFS with a bomb incoming

Sleet mixing back in, temp has dropped to 30 with the onset of precip. Can see mix line on correlation coefficient radar very well

HUGE snowflakes coming down now, mostly snow. Some flakes the size of my palm, no joke. Like almost 2" in diameter

Just sleet here in Fleetwood, coming down nicely though and streets covered. 32F

The CMC was a hair away from a bomb as well, verbatim destroys New England. It's an explosive setup with that northern stream shortwave and favorable confluence/blocking.

I think it's obvious that the snow maps just aren't gonna work in a system like this, there's gonna be lots of ptype changes as rates change and such. The GFS being colder is inherently apart of it's bias to be progressive and less amped... it's just not showing as much mid-level warming as say the NAM and RGEM (which have a bias to be too amped). I honestly don't know what to expect here in Berks. I'm at a higher elevation compared to the southern part of the county which will help.

0z GFS came in even colder again. Even if we compare the snow depth maps, there's a clear shift southward.

18z HRRR. Don't take the 10:1 snow map literally, instead see it as where the line for where predominately frozen precip will fall vs not. The HRRR is MUCH more generous and cooler aloft compared to the NAM. The NAM drives a warm nose aloft into the region while the HRRR is very stubborn to keep it tamed

NAM is much snowier for northern parts of the Lehigh Valley and Poconos

I could see Berks, Lehigh, and Northampton counties starting as sleet, then as the column moistens and cools briefly thumping 1-2" of snow. Then as the mid-levels warm we'll switch to sleet and freezing rain before turning to rain. Carbon and Monroe counties will stay snow longer and those further south in Montgomery, Bucks, etc. will likely start as sleet and then go straight to rain. One thing to take note of is if the CAD can hold on longer and prevail. I don't think we're far enough out anymore for major changes. But for areas like the Lehigh Valley, an extra hour or two of sleet/freezing rain is possible than expected if it stays colder.

18z GFS with a solid thump for the LHV Thursday, some areas stay all snow or frozen.

It's super exciting that we should be entering a loaded pattern with our first storm threat centered right around Christmas. I'm rooting for a Dec 24-25 snowstorm.

Just some light rain and mist falling now. Had some heavier snow mix in throughout the morning to give a slushy coating to the car and grass. 33F

I actually just checked Parker Dam, cheap cabins so will consider it

Having serious thoughts of "chasing" this storm out there in central PA, lots of similarities to Dec 1992. Anybody know of any good State Parks I could rent a cabin at in that general area of Blair and Clearfield counties?

Euro is HUGE for much of central PA, west of the river

Latest CIPS analog guidance no surprise has Dec 1992 as the #1 analog It's interesting to note the slightly further west NAO blocking we have this time around compared to 1992 (sitting squarely over the Hudson Bay on the 12z GFS, compared to east of it). Will that make a difference?

6z GEFS... look at member 14. Right now the GEFS are catching back up to the other guidance, so not as many hits. But there are still quite a few solid hits

0z GEFS showing some pretty big hits

There's some pretty big solutions showing up on the GEFS, especially for the interior but even some for the coast