Newman

Admittedly I hadn't looked at the individual ensembles until now. You're right, the 0z Euro only had maybe 4 indis that even showed a coastal scraper. Haven't seen the 6z yet

Remember last February where the models were showing a HECS in the 120-160hour range, and then they completely backed off in literally like one model cycle after it was clear the massive TPV wasn't going to phase properly with our southern vort? That's what could happen again here, but maybe we trend more favorably? Just have to watch it play out

I think having a 51 member ensemble will inherently result in a pretty smoothed look over what is a fickle setup and truly boom or bust. However, even a few more ticks towards the GFS on the Euro ENS will probably start to yield at least some light upper level snows. Ride the ensembles though, them having nothing shows the low probability of this happening until we see more support

The Euro has been ticking slowly to the GFS for the 15-16th deal. We really need the southern vort to not get stuck behind the northern energy or else you get destructive wave interference. The 6z Euro jumped closer to better phasing and more favorable orientation. Continue watching for now, I don't think we've seen the final solution yet (for better or for worse). The 0z GFS was bonkers and probably the ceiling lol

Well obviously the Jan 7-10th period isn't going to work out and we've regressed back to maybe around the 1/13-1/17 period or so for winter weather prospects returning. However, ensembles aren't too keen on any real help in the NAO department (perhaps a weak -NAO just to keep lower heights in Canada). So although we have a more favorable EPO/Pacific regime, which will help to bring the cold back, we might see a lot of waves zip down the ridge out west and slide quickly through the Mid-Atlantic. With no anomalous -NAO, there won't be opportunity for any 50/50 lows to settle into place. So yes there could definitely be snow in mid-January (as long as we don't regress any more), though I don't see any big wound up coastal storm chances outside of a rogue double/triple phaser if the northern and southern streams cooperate, though chances of that are slim with the faster flow. Perhaps a faster flow advisory or low-end warning type event. Things start looking better around 1/22, assuming the MJO progresses how I think it will. The 12z Euro for 1/15 looks close on the h500 maps with some phasing going on, though in reality there's the kicker system on its heels pushing everything quickly east so the trough can't turn negative. We're still 9 days out though so a lot will change from now to then

The big ones get sniffed out 8-10 days ahead of time. I remember tracking 2016 for what seemed like ages. The emotional rollercoaster ride when everything shifted south, only for the NAM to score a coup on bringing it further north within the last 2-3 days. Obviously the pattern coming up Jan 6-10th or so looks unreal with the retrograding NAO block and split flow, but details are TBD if there's good timing with short waves in the flow. If we can get a solidly timed PNA spike WITHOUT a shortwave kicker screwing things up, I truly think the ceiling is some of the big uns in history. Just go back and look at the preloading patterns of the biggest storms for PHL, DCA, BWI, NYC, etc Edit just to add: In no way am I guaranteeing a KU, but it's gotta be encouraging seeing some semblance of a pattern that can support said larger storms vs. Pac puke and zonal flow. Or cold and dry Northwest flow

Definitely time for nowcasting. The models are usually never perfect in nailing the warm nose and the timing of said warm nose. Who knows, maybe it comes in heavier and colder so areas thump for an hour or two and pick up more snow? Or maybe the warm nose is deeper and it's more freezing rain vs sleet? We'll see.

1-2" of snow/sleet looks like a good bet for most. Latest 12z HRRR is 0.4-0.5" of QPF area wide. With 3:1 sleet ratios, that'll get you the 1-2" of accumulation. Let's say something like the 0z FV3 comes to fruition which keeps the warm nose/WAA a bit muted, then perhaps in heavier rates you could stay snow longer for some areas and eek out an additional inch of snow. But the latest 12z FV3 came in with a lot of sleet.

Really a great performance from the RRFS and HRRR which were highlighting the 6-8" strip somewhere across SE PA early yesterday morning

7.1" on the season in Fleetwood now, about 3 weeks ahead of normal

5.75" in Fleetwood

Wow! I just checked the radar loop and your area has been under the best banding all night. Love it.

Temp is down to 32° in Fleetwood with moderate snow according to my folk, looking forward to the pics from everyone. It will be my first ever winter not seeing snow now that I live and work in Florida so I will live vicariously through you all, enjoy this one!

I'm surprised Mount Holly didn't mention "localized 6 inches" for the WSW. I also thought they might follow what State College did with Lancaster and York counties and put Berks, Lehigh, Northampton under 2-5 inches. Would love to read their latest AFD to see if they're just playing it safe or if they don't trust some of the latest short term guidance from the HREF, HRRR, and RRFS. It's also kinda splitting hairs I know

HRRR has a band with 1"+ rates set up over Lancaster -> Lehigh from about midnight through 4am. Whoever ends up under that 850-700mb fronto band for an extended period of time will easily grab 4-6"

Close to go time I know, but 6z EPS bumped up QPF as well. Upper-levels ticking more favorably, hopefully the ticks continue right up to storm onset. Philly EPS mean is 4" and probability of snowfall exceeding 4" is now 53%.

1am sounding for Allentown off the 3k, wow! Plenty of ascent right in the DGZ. The 10pm - 3am timeframe will probably be when the LHV gets the best rates before everything shunts southeast. Snow might be done by sunrise tomorrow morning

6z Euro is quite a bit more wet for the Lehigh Valley. Solid 2-4", many of the mesos are also bringing WWA amounts north. Should be a solid event for the area.

12Z Euro shifted a bit back SE after the northwest bump at 6Z. It digs the TPV just a bit further south over the Great Lakes which keeps the heights a smidge more suppressed. But largely it's been super steady. 1-2" across the Lehigh Valley and 2-4" I-95 corridor sounds like a good bet.

A couple things I'm interested in: 1. As we near this event, how do the mesos trend with the upper level jet and any small ticks in TPV placement to allow greater height rises (or worsening). 2. QPF trends on guidance, especially along the northwest edge of the precip shield. Latest RGEM stays wet for the Lehigh Valley (0.2-0.3" of precip), NAM much drier. 3. Post-storm, I'm curious what the SLRs end up being. The NAMs are the most aggressive (no surprise) in some solid omega within the DGZ and also 850mb fronto, but mostly along and south of I-95 once the storm starts to get going a bit. I'm curious to compare 10:1 and Kuchera model maps to reality.

NAM in line with the Euro, obviously more amped because it's the NAM. But cut some of that QPF and it's a general 2-4" along the I-95 corridor. It's a shame this isn't coming 6-12 hours later for the Eagles game

Euro has been largely consistent in showing a general 2-4" for much of the Philly metro the past few runs with upwards of 5" in localized spots. Berks, Lehigh, Northampton probably 1-3" but this is one of those setups where you can get a strong fronto band on the NW side of the precip shield as the upper level jet shifts towards the area under the favorable right entrance region. I think the precip shield would actually expand a bit further northwest than what the Euro shows with isentropic glide along the frontal boundary as the TPV drops in from the north. However, that same TPV is pushing everything along and out to sea so it's a fine balance between the flow buckling and getting that precip shield to expand vs everything shunted east. Will have to watch the trends with the models, have to get a bit greater height rises ahead of this one

Glad you posted this as I came to check what others were getting SLR in the DMV region. Friend (who's also a met) from Leesburg sent me this a bit ago: "So I measured a measly 0.04" of melted precipitation at 845am, and another 0.01 at 1pm. So I grand total of 1.7" from 0.05". I felt like it doesn't make sense so I measured the melted precipitation from a core sample off the deck that was around 1.25 to 1.5" and it was just above .03", so I don't know ha" Seems like some real fluff up there today

Friend just measured 1.7" on his snowboard in Leesburg. Final band might push it to 2?

Extended pattern looks great if you're into cold and dry northwesterly flow with maybe an occasional clipper system potent enough to deliver C-2" of snow