Scarlet Pimpernel

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We’re a collection of individuals spending an inordinate amount of time 1) worshiping what amounts to computerized fortune tellers, 2) wishing for disruptive to catastrophic weather events that 99% of the general public would pay to never experience (YES, SNOW INCLUDED), and 3) getting aroused by inanimate digital projections created by extraordinarily complex mathematical formulas and algorithms. 

We’re not just weird, we’re deviant freaks. 

C'mon man, show some dignity!  This place is rated PG-13 at the worst!  (Oh, and love it when you talk so dirty about the models like that!  You can grab 'em by the vorticity, and they let you do it, because you're a snow weenie!) 

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Correct  Probably the most famous 4-note motif in the history of music, lol (Have you ever listened to the entire symphony? If you haven't...DO IT!!! Haha You will discover just how many different ways he incorporates that same

"short-short-short-looooong" pattern throughout the whole work!

I sure have heard it, several times...and have seen it performed live a time or two.  You're absolutely right, the same motif shows up throughout.  It also has one of the more unusual transitions from the 3rd to 4th movement (no pause, really, it just goes right into the 4th).

Wow!  I'm thinking we might be better off going back to the quasi-political discussion from earlier!!

Or not...this might be more fun!!

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think you'll get two of those. If he dips into the Chianti for dinner one Friday, you have a shot at all 3. 

Along with some fava beans?? 

6 hours ago, uncletim said:

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol Perfect! (are you a musician?)

OK, while I definitely appreciate music, I cannot read it all that much.  What piece is that from??

(ETA:  Of course!!  From the 1st movement of Beethoven's 5th Symphony?  Considering @stormtracker issued the "warning" comment, and looking at the musical notes now in my mind.)

10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang it man what did you just do 

I know, I know...shouldn't have made that (not too) subtle comment, but couldn't resist I suppose!

6 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Can I ask a favor?  I know this is banter and any other time, I'd say carry on.  But this latest round of discussion is teetering dangerously toward politics and I kinda want to keep that off the weather side, especially during these times.   This is the one place I (and probably a lot of others) come to seek refuge from all of that noise.  We all have political beliefs, and most people know mine, but I don't bring it up here because like I said...we want to keep this an oasis, free from that highly divisive topic.   If you want to talk politics, we do have a subforum for that (Americanpol.com).   This is not pointing the finger at any of you.  I'm just trying to head it off before this gets out of control.

Less talk about something less acrimonious, like our fantastic winter.   Wait.....maybe politics isn't such a bad topic.  

Hey...my bad @stormtracker...and my apologies.  I probably should not have replied a page or so back with my "FOX" comment, but I thought it would be lightly humorous enough without being *too* political (and it was in response to someone humorously saying "fake nuze", so the follow-up seemed like an appropriate "touche!" at the time!).  Didn't expect a bunch of related commentary to ensue...oh well.

And this is a fantastic winter!  Record breaking...errr, wait a minute, I'm thinking of 10 years ago!! 

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If I don't like it, or believe it, fake newz.

#truthiness

I think you misspelled "FOX" there...(ducking for cover).

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Question...now when you look at ops past like 200 hrs...why is it all the precipitation look like huge swaths of moisture? (like somebody took a butter knife and slathered streaks of graphics on the map,l Is that basically the computer saying "eh, it might be precip between here and here" or is it because resolution is weaker at that range?

Well, if you're looking at the *total* QPF through that time (I'm looking at TT site), then yeah, it would appear like huge swaths of moisture because it's a total amount over all those hours.  Sort of like a Jackson Pollock painting (I use the term "painting" very loosely, hahaha!).  Much larger area then, of course, would be covered by something, especially when you get out in time.  But if you're looking at the 24-h amounts, you should see more "motion" (for lack of a better word) as a system moves through...it will increase, then decrease, over an area for various 24-h increments.

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Let it go. Incoming on 18z gfs. 1041 high on top of a stj wave train. 

Yeah, that sure is a nice look.  Cold, Arctic high pushing east with a wave underneath that is dumping moisture into the cold air.  Not a HECS, but a nice overrunning event as shown.  Same general time frame that some form of this has been showing up.  And that's some cold air over this area, too, while the precip is ongoing.

1 minute ago, mappy said:

pffft i am so far from being a meteorologist. i let those who know more than me handle that. but i can handle the snark and sass just fine  

Hahaha!  I know...I was making a weak attempt to riff on the old "you can take the so-and-so out of wherever, but you cannot take the wherever out of the so-and-so"!  (or something like that!).

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

Randy fixed my powers. 

So...you can take the meteorologist out of moderator, but you can't take the moderator out of the girl!

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's a MECS setup right there imho.

I would think so too...but at the same time, isn't that ridging off the coast and up into the northeast kind of not ideal?  But we're talking day 10, so I shouldn't parse such details.  The setup is showing up, and has been showing up, for a little while now in the general time frame.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

In the last 30 years DC has had 3" or more of snow between March 1-15th 23% of the time 

 

Yeah...the last 5-6 Marches in particular have highlighted this!

13 minutes ago, mappy said:

it does. the weenies are taking over and unfortunately, other than hiding posts, i cant do much else. i would move them all to banter if i could. 

Lunatics running the asylum, it seems..."Weenies Flew over the Cuckoo's Nest"? ;  )

I admit I'm as weenie as anyone when it comes to snow, following the storms is fun (though frustrating at the same time, too).  But I try to keep the frustration mostly to myself and out of the medium range and storm related threads, when things don't work out.  Light banter maybe sometimes in there, but I've tried to keep most stuff in the Banter forum or the Panic Room for fun.  I'm sure several others are the same, and I know you're not aiming that comment at them or me...but you're right.  And thanks to you and other mods for at least trying to keep it somewhat under control.  The past couple of years it has gotten really insufferable at times in the main discussion areas!

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We can't even get a 10 day digital snow right.  The 6z beauty just slid south.   Still early to give up on winter though.  

Yeah, looks like the trough doesn't quite dig as much as the 06Z did (or the other couple of previous cycles that had a good event).  So it doesn't get going really  until it's well offshore and it doesn't "turn the corner" much up the coast for us.  But...the idea is still there at that range, and has been for a little while now.  Guess that's all we can ask at this point.

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB GFS 18z....looks like we are close to a phase and a negative tilt....experts?

I may not be that much of an expert (nor do I play one on TV, and have not stayed at a Holiday Inn Express)...but my 2 copper coins worth:  The "main" southern stream trough actually has a neutral tilt (aligned more or less north-south).  The northern stream energy up around WI is neutral to slightly positive tilt.  But it sure looks like it's getting close to phasing with the southern stream...which, if it did, would probably result in a closed off system that becomes negatively tilted.

(Note:  "positive" tilt, trough aligned more southwest-northeast in the flow..."negative" tilt, aligned northwest-southeast, and can become closed off..."neutral" tilt, aligned more north-south.  Generally speaking, a positively tilted trough is weaker, and the energy can tend to get sheared out.  A negative tilt or closed low implies a slow moving or intensifying system, or perhaps phasing if there's more than one stream...these tend to be much stronger.  A neutrally tilted trough is kind of, well, neutral or "in the middle", could imply a trough that's amplifying and potentially can become negatively tilted.)

37 minutes ago, H2O said:

You know what that means, professor?  YOU DON'T GET...THE UNICORN!  AWWWW!  (Actually, they did get the unicorn in the end, so who knows!!!)

Horrible news about Kobe Bryant...just awful and depressing.  May he rest in peace, and may his surviving family find the strength to overcome this tragedy.

Just now, PDIII said:

Wait...so I haven't delved into what the GGEM shows, but just looking at the image posted above by @Chris78, I would have thought all or mostly rain incoming.  How does it dump 6"+ over the area??  I know, I know...snow maps and all that, but still.

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The phase was slightly late. The ccb deform doesn’t really get cranking because of that. It’s being pinched on its NW side by the unclean phase going on between the NS and SS systems. It was close to big though. 

Yup, damn that is remarkably close to a nice phase.  But even missing that, white rain I suppose is better than rain only at this point.  Maybe.  I'm sure we'll see something different in a few hours, so many small details out there several days in advance.

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If this were a painting or photo in an art museum, the caption would read:

"The Distraught Reaper:  How he almost got @showmethesnow's soul, but was denied a call yet again.  The astute observer will note the extreme disappointment in the skull-like face as he looks down at the table, while drowning his sorrows in bourbon.  Oil on canvas, circa January 2020."

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but at least the treadmill didn’t flip over and crush us to death...yet. 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

 

Just perfect, thanks!!! 

15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I was out during the 12z model runs...can someone call 911 for Bob and PSU...man those two had a rough afternoon...Ji being positive lol

Ji being positive?

Dogs and cats, living together!

Mass hysteria!!

(Just for the Reaper, I should probably add "The dead rising from the grave!" line from Ghostbusters, as well!!)

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve been “trying” to analyze each mostly lottery ticket level “threat” independently and not be too annoying with constant negativity but once the base state pattern showed itself around New Years I put any expectations for snow to bed.   There were a few exceptions where things suddenly flipped late, and most of those years lucked into at least 1-2 snows somewhere...but the fact was what we were facing was the worst base state we could possibly get. In every way. I even told my wife around New Years we might not get much if any snow even up here and that in that case I would take the family on a weekend trip somewhere to let the kids play in the snow.  Then we did luck our way into that one nice event up here..but even that took so much luck and was barely cold enough during the coldest week of the year even up here.  But while I continue to track in the hope of a fluke or a pattern change I haven’t expected anything. And I’ve kind of expected the long range looks to degrade because the fact is something is consistently feeding that ridge in the pac and that sets off a chain reaction of suck downstream in the high and mid latitudes. Until that forcing chances and I am skeptical it does, were in trouble. Our best chance remains late Feb into March when changing wavelengths, weakening PV and volatility change the reactions to that forcing and open the possibility of a better result. 

Yeah, this has been a very frustrating year with regard to anything that can fail for us, found a way to fail.  We've seen a handful of good looks, sure, but they quickly disappeared.  Or a couple of models would show it, but others would indicate an unfavorable scenario.  That's different from last year, when (as I recall?) most every model and ensemble was pointing toward a very good pattern but it just never really occurred (I'm thinking of last part of Dec and into Jan, there about).

I've said this before, I know, but you've been spot-on with the warnings that if certain things lined up like some of the guidance was definitely showing, we might be in serious trouble.  Those warnings were correct, not so much because we're witnessing it real-time now, but even if we didn't, the hypothetical idea was right (if that makes sense).  Unfortunately, we've seen what seems to be just about everything (or at least too many things) work out wrong.  Perfect 988 coastal location off Hatteras and then Ocean City?  Holy cow, the entire eastern seaboard should get bombed!  Oh, wait...sorry, the antecedent airmass sucks, and we've got too much southerly flow beforehand, so it's rain all the way to the NY state line!  Nice, solid, cold-air damming situation even with a storm to our west?  We should get a decent thump to ice to drizzle!  Nope...the precip is too light as the low went way too far west, resulting in the moisture trajectory going elsewhere.  So we get 2 flakes and then light rain.

I'm not giving up hope for...something!...quite yet.  And by something, I mean not just an inch or two of slush that barely stays on the sidewalks.  No, I'm not talking about a HECS or even a near-HECS.  But I hold out hope for a general warning-level event sometime Feb/Mar, with some good cold air, that everyone will like.  I know there are some here who don't care for late-season snows (like in March), but personally, I'd be fine with a storm in the first part of March even if it's not something that will be on the ground for a long time.  Hell, we had enough times in that month within recent memory that actually were below freezing during the day, even a couple of days, around a storm.