Scarlet Pimpernel

24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hell of a rainstorm on the GFS.  

Great, just what we need, another wash-out Saturday! 

A bit late here, but belated congrats to @mappy on the moderator tag!  I knew you were doing that when needed before, but now it's official and all!

Hey @psuhoffman, sounds like a really fun weekend trip in Gettysburg!!  Glad to hear you all had a great time!

Oh, I particularly liked the photo of you with the maniacal look on your face, staring at the drinks, as if deciding which one to attack first (and the knife in front of you adds a bit of, uhh, atmosphere?)!

Just now, stormtracker said:

Well, it looks good for you...i need a little help, but it wouldn't take much

I'm not sure where the cold air comes from, other than a wrapped-up mid level circulation kind of deal.  I know we're not supposed to mention this storm, but "March 6, 2013" suddenly came to mind!

16 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Savor it...who knows if and when we will see it again.

Sorta, kinda, almost looks like a unicorn trotting up across the Blue Ridge there, if you stare at it long enough.

20 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Why do people say “the DMV”?

Because many times in and around the Beltway, traffic goes about as fast as lines at the DMV office!! 

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A good portion of what made those runs weenieish was today's storm. Lol. It was the only storm that had decent consensus. At one point over 50% of the eps members has 2" or more of snowfall. Beyond that was shotgun style. Those panels looked great from a distance but I realized today that shoveling rain sucks. 

I'm actually disinterested in long range now. Winter has shown its hand... the struggle is real 

Pretty much.  Not much else to do, maybe check in and see what's going on over the next couple of weeks and hope we can score something for Feb/Mar at some point.  It's about as bad and boring as things can get right now...at least, I don't think the pattern can get much worse than a shutout to near shutout look.  What, stronger ridging than anticipated with 60 degrees instead of 40s or 50s?  

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Feb 15 squall was like that for 9.5 minutes

That Feb 2015 squall was quite a neat event, wasn't it, @Bob Chill? I got like 2" in less than an hour followed by gusty winds and brutal cold. That still remains perhaps my favorite "little" event of all time which led into a great 3-4 week period of winter that year! 

OK, I'm going to apologize here in the appropriate place (banter!), for perhaps perpetuating an ongoing argument some where having with @Mersky in the medium range discussion.  I should have probably copied and posted those in here instead, and perhaps I should not have engaged the argument so much in the first place.  But I'll admit, I was a bit upset at some of the things being said.  Oh well, guess we're all a bit sour with the latest forecast and ensemble indications.  At any rate, if mods want to move any of that into here instead, feel free.  And again, apologies...I normally do not go into it like that with people.

7 minutes ago, Mersky said:

You guys know what the mean is correct??? 

You do understand what the SPREAD of ensemble forecasts shows, correct?

5 minutes ago, Mersky said:

4 or 5  members out of 51 pushed it into phase 6. You call that good?? I don’t 

For a forecast issued on JANUARY F-ING FIRST...yeah, not too awful.  Do you expect it to be perfect 15 days in advance?  Then you should find a new field to study.  And the MEAN curve, if you follow that, was not even in the COD on the 15th, though it was approaching it.  Oh, and I count what looks like 2 members that actually go into the COD, and a couple that go to P6.  Most of the rest kind of bounce and circle around P5, with some decreasing amplitude.

38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Says the one who all but cancelled winter a couple weeks ago...lol Forgive me but sometimes I can't quite interpret when you say things like "difficult to overcome" (which I took to mean if we started February with that look, the odds were against us)...and then talking about the EPS degrading and not having any cold air to start Feb and such...(and then I hear about a strong PV being a continual factor). I suppose we can always get lucky with a transient window...

I know we're all more than a bit on edge because the indications turned very sour over the past few days for the medium range.  But I have to say, this is kind of unfair to @psuhoffman.  He did not "all but cancel winter" when some bad signs showed up.  He stated very clearly that IF such-and-such occurred, we're about cooked (literally?).  And what he said was absolutely true...if various things occur with the pattern, you can throw our snow chances out the window.  Now we're seeing...very unfortunately...indications that this might occur in the medium range now, after a period of seeing much more favorable signs.  It sucks, but that's what's being shown.  It may not be right, it may change to looking good again.  Or we could look good after that period.  Who knows.  I'm just keeping hope for one good period this winter, whether it's February or first part of March, to give us *something* more than a couple of slushy inches followed by rain.  I've seen some God-awful winters in the time I've lived here, and some really good ones.  I'd like to think we can avoid "God awful" without too much difficulty.  That doesn't mean a HECS, but at least one decent storm.  (And by God-awful, I mean an entire winter season with barely an advisory-level event a time or two, and low single-digit snow for the year).

28 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Huh??? You are kidding, right?  The whole spread missed it. Lol

Not to be overtly rude, and attempting to be somewhat diplomatic here...but are you being deliberately obtuse??

24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Considering that that was a forecast for Jan 15, that yesterday was Jan 16, and the MJO position was this .... I’d say it worked out pretty damn good  And yes if you follow the mean curve it didn’t die and curve, but the general movement for a 15 day forecast was great.

 

You know, I was just about to reply to him stating exactly this.  I looked at that Jan. 1-15 MJO forecast from the EPS and thought the verification looked pretty damned good as well!  Thanks for stating the same thing.  And while the mean from that older forecast kind of diminished toward the COD, the envelope clearly had quite a range and some members pushed into P6 (which is what occurred).  So yeah, not bad for a 15 day forecast.  Sadly, it meant things sucked for us, but it is what it is.

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS op uneventful. Even tho the pattern changes the mean storm track continues taking LP West of us towards the GL and redeveloping too late. I dont think outside of this weekend I saw a flake on this run. My discussion with PSU yesterday was exactly this....the pattern may have changed but the background state/ mean strom track or whatever you like to call it remains. Storms are either developing off the SE coast and headed ENE or are tracking west of us into the GL. I wish I could say I saw an end to it, but there isnt any sugarcoating this. Storm track persistence is one tough sob to try and snap. Usually takes a large scale event/storm to reshuffle the deck. Honestly, and I posted this in the Philly sub, I would love to see a full blown raging Nino or a Nina to completely reset things. 

You  know, I actually can see and agree with what both you and @psuhoffman have been saying, though there is some disagreement between you in what you've both said.  PSU is absolutely right on the points that the pattern has not been the same since about mid-December, though the result for us doesn't seem much different (or improved!).  And I certainly can agree that we're getting into at least a somewhat more favorable look for the latter part of this month, definitely better than a total shutout.  But it's the details (ah, the devil is in there!) that can kill us...a shortwave here, a trough too far east there...and we get crap when not long before things looked better.  Likewise, what he said about our "base state" or climatology here is pretty well spot-on...we are not in a location that has high likelihood of snow year in and year out, in fact, it's not all that great of a probability on average.  It's really hit or miss here, you get hammered or get almost nothing.  It took me a few years living here to fully get that the "average snow" doesn't mean much because the variability is huge!  Coming from northeast Ohio, the variability is far less, so even a "meh" year typically isn't all that awful.

I also can definitely see and empathize with what you're saying.  From our perspective, it doesn't look like anything has really improved (I am now remembering that "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade" scene, where Indy and his dad are in the fireplace, which rotates around, and his dad says "Our situation has not improved!").  The pattern is definitely quite different, but we're not seeing anything "good" (i.e., good snow chances) show up for us.  Not sure I'm fully on board with the storm persistence "memory" kind of thing, because if the pattern is not the same, then things aren't persistent by definition, I suppose.  But again, it sure seems that way whether true or not.  I don't know what it would take to do a "reshuffle" so that we're in a better spot here, or if such a thing would happen.  So much seems almost right, but just enough "off" to "F" things up.

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

From what I understand it’s rock salt, magnesium chloride and water mixture. Also terrible for your car. 

No matter what they put on the roads, my dark blue Honda Civic always ends up looking slate-gray with that stuff.

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Calling it now.....The Great VD Storm of 2020! (VD=Valentine's Day not to be confused with Venereal Disease)

I don't know man...the way this season has gone, you never know!! 

But joking aside, I guess (???) it's nice that the Euro weeklies looked good (according to what @psuhoffman said earlier), and that the CFS keeps indicating a cold February.  We'll see.

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Day 9 torch? Probably, I could see that happening. 

Well, @Bob Chill did say he's passing the torch.  I just didn't think he meant the ops Euro!!  (Just kidding, Bob, you know I'm just having a bit of fun!!).

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

3 but but 4 hours of snow is not a real storm. We havent been able to get within 5 days of a real threat and its almost February. I am at an all time low with winter blues

That's odd...I checked the calendar and it says "January 16" today, barely half-way through the month.

(And the Grammar Nazi in me should correct your "its almost February" to "it's almost February".)

Just throwing this out there, too, if I may...

I've also been wondering about something like "Commutageddon" (Jan. 26, 2011).  Now I know that's not in your "historical decades" list, and it's obviously much more recent.  And it was a highly dynamic storm in the mid-levels, which may not correspond to the type you have here.  But as I recall the temperatures were borderline, at or just above freezing when the heavy, wet snow fell.  I'm not familiar with the ones you list, as I wasn't here through that time.  Were they similar in any way to how Commutageddon went?  Maybe the extreme dynamic setup is the only reason Commutageddon worked out for us, as a more recent event?

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Bingo. Getting crushed this week. I've passed the torch until further notice. As much as I like snow... I like making money better...

"Passing the torch" might be a dubious turn of phrase at this point, with us looking for snow!! 

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The “thump” doesn’t cone until about 12z Saturday. The 3k runs only to 6z Saturday. Is your met psychic? Sees the future?

Oops, sorry I forgot the “JFC”

Mmmmm, fried chicken!!!  Oh wait, you said JFC, not KFC...damn, sorry! 

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How is that even possible, lol

Couple of things I can think of, just looking at that surface plot.  The coastal low is too far inland (and the high to the north looks pushed too far away to the north).  Also, note the extension of low pressure into the WV panhandle/southeast OH/southwest PA.  That would imply a primary that's too far north, thus enabling more warm air to get in before the coastal can take over.  Again, that's just based on looking at the surface, having not seen the corresponding Euro 500 hPa.

ETA:  Ninja'd by @psuhoffman and @jaydreb! 

53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Crap, I riled up the weenies with the Pepperidge Farm thing/wording. 

@WxWatcher007 I prefer cash but a blank check will suffice, ty

I thought the Reaper only deals with electronic transfers now!! 

Checks?  Cash??  I thought those went the way of putting 2 spaces after a period at the end of a sentence!  (Which I still do...so again, get off my lawn! haha!)

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Remember when the LR ens and weeklies had locked in on a much better pattern thru their respective ranges? 

You know, it's kind of funny that I recall seeing the actual Pepperidge Farm ad that this is parodying!!  (Now, get off my lawn!!)