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Scarlet Pimpernel

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Posts posted by Scarlet Pimpernel

    December 16/17 Winter Event

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

    GEFS held serve. Beautiful verbatim, 

    12z:

    1608195600-FjOGdRvAzxc.png

    06z:

    1608195600-2f42vpUYns0.png

    Looks quite similar, going by the overall "shape" and coverage.  Biggest difference is that the amounts are noticeably bumped up (whatever it's worth, on these maps!)...presumably due to the enhanced CCB at 12Z vs. 06Z?

    December 16/17 Winter Event

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

    I’ve only looked at posts this morning so far, but seems the models runs are all bouncing within a certain range and we pretty much know what that is. I81 crowd probably is shellacked in any scenario. I95 crowd probably mixes in every scenario. Eastern shore down to RIC is mostly rain in every scenario (sorry friends). Everything I see suggest almost all of LWX gets a WSW. I’ll also say that I’ll take my sleet and rain Wednesday evening and say “thank you sir may I have another!?” if it means I get the kind of deform band that is being advertised. 

    Agree.  This is a very good overall summary.  And I'll also take this opportunity to thank @MillvilleWx for the amazing discussions (even when on mids...not to be confused with meds!!:lol:) as well as @MN Transplant, @psuhoffman.  Thanks for keeping it real and civil, regardless of what each model run shows.

    With a little luck where I'm at just on the northwest side of the beltway, it will be more sleety than rain through that time later Wednesday afternoon.  I'm intrigued by the after-00Z Wednesday evening into late Wednesday night timeframe as well, if that deform band produces.  Nobody around I-95 should be expecting a foot-plus, but a decent warning-level event seems quite possible.  Which is far more than many of us have gotten in nearly 2 years.

    • Like 4

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, Scraff said:

    King Euro better not rain our snow parade. 

    Of all the 3 "main" models, the Euro is perhaps the most iffy, so to speak, for the metro areas and southeast.  But even with that, it's still been a pretty solid hit or better (depending on location of course)...and not far from the GFS and CMC.

    • Like 1

    December Banter 2020

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

    The days are getting shorter as we approach the solstice.  So 5 more days is actually less than that!! :lol:

     

    1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

    GFS gets snow in at like 118hrs.  That's Day 4 sucka.  

    :D

    December Banter 2020

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, H2O said:

    I think its safe to say today's model runs will hold for.....checks calendar...5 more days

    The days are getting shorter as we approach the solstice.  So 5 more days is actually less than that!! :lol:

    December Banter 2020

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

    ^keanuwhoa.gif

    Based on the maps I’ve seen, Eps looks really really nice. Cold and with a more southern transfer to the coast than the Op. Getting tingly. 

    OK, I admit...it took me a moment to realize what this said.  At first glance, I thought it might be some kind of Hawaiian way of saying "Holy Sh*t!!"  But I guess the meaning is the same regardless!! :lol:

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    It’s easy to get caught up in the verbatim but you look at the players on the field and there’s no way I’d want a scraper look 6 days out with that blocking in place.

    Give me wiggle room if that high is analyzed stronger closer to game time. 

    Exactly...essentially what I'm thinking.  And even taking it verbatim with the (silly) snow maps, I take heart in the fact that a couple inches still gets into the cities, with a bit more where I'm at on the northwest side of town.

    As has been said, get that primary to transfer sooner, rather than when it's up near the OH River, and a lot of people would be quite happy (with the possible exception of Ji, hahaha!).  I haven't really been looking at this in detail until just the past day or two, but has the transfer of energy trended one way or another over time?

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

    Interesting to see a non-bombed-out low out bully its way into a high like that with blocking in place.

    edit: Good track, though, so I suppose it's more about cold than the block.

    Yeah.  More an issue of the primary that's along the Ohio river it seems, messing up the thermals.  As others indicated, if the transfer is quicker, or if the primary doesn't go that far north, that could do it for us.  But not a bad overall look to have a week out.  Will be interesting to see what the ensembles show...

    ETA:  You know, even just going with the crazy snow maps (not worth a lot, I know!), about 1-2" snow still manages to get down into the cities and DC area at the end, with obviously much more as you go north and west.  That's 1-2" more than we saw the other day! :lol:

    • Like 1

    December Banter 2020

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    Coming at Frd for that? Come on, y’all. Weenie la la land is how you end up in one of my padded rooms.

    You've got padded rooms in the Panic Room now?  Whoa...that might be a game changer right there! :lol:

    December Banter 2020

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

    Welp, back here for another winter of tracking.  I believe this is my 14th winter tracking storms on the internet.  This year I'll need more distraction than usual because my wife died back in August and now I'm a single parent of two small kids (2 and 4) :(.  Hopefully mother nature can throw me a bone.  

    Echoing what others have already said...very sorry to hear this and my condolences to you.  Take care of yourself and your kids, keep them close.  And yes, hopefully we can get some snow to brighten things for you at least a little.

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Most haven’t had a snowstorm in almost 2 years and they’re gonna be picky lol  If a hot air balloon went overhead flown by a pilot with a bad case of dandruff I’d call it a win at this point. 

    Yup...January 2019 is what I assume you're referring to from "almost 2 years ago".  And anything would beat the 1.5" slush that I got last year for the "largest" event (and about 2" total for the season, woo-hoo!).

    ETA:  Oh, and I think some people forget just how bad it was in December 2015, when we had a +11 degree departure from normal for the month.  Just let that sink in for a moment.  Eleven.  Degrees.  Above.  Normal.  When it's unpleasantly muggy and damp on Christmas Eve, you know December sucks.  Thank God that kind of departure didn't happen in July!:lol:  Of course, a few weeks later we had a storm for the ages, but anyhow...

    • Like 1

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, mappy said:

    Yeah @losetoa6 mentioned that in the short range thread. I’m okay with a quick hitting heavy rainer if it gives chance for something early next week. The light dusting I got yesterday has me jonesing for more 

    I hear you on that!  Would be nice to not trash the entire weekend with more rain, rain, rain (not like we need more terribly much!)...have that move out quickly and potentially allow some chance of snow early next week (even if small), would be great about now.

    • Like 1
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