Scarlet Pimpernel

5 minutes ago, high risk said:

Definitely worth remembering that when it comes to freezing rain and temps in the 20s, even if model QPF drops from 0.4" to 0.1", it's still a high-impact event.

Very true, it doesn't take much ice at all especially if it really is that cold.  If anyone remembers the early March 2015 ice event (I think it was on the 1st, a few days before that snow we got), it was nothing heavy...light drizzle or rain, maybe some sleet as well as I recall.  Temperatures were also just below freezing, not as cold as what models are indicating for this Saturday.  Didn't accrue a ton of ice, but it was outright dangerous!!  In broad daylight, in early March no less.

ETA:  Experienced a really bad ice storm in Atlanta in Jan. 1999 (not the Super Bowl one the next year).  Decent precip rates just pouring into that cold air, and it accumulated quite a bit (can't remember exact amounts, but I'd say pushing half inch of ice or so at least some places).  Pine trees and those southern magnolias (which keep their leaves all year) with the huge leaves got absolutely shredded.

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I still don't get why p-type is an issue here...

I'm not sure how accurate this is, so take with a grain of salt...

I'd wager it's partly due to the fact that the (Arctic) cold here is pretty shallow.  We're not exactly in the "center" of it all.  It's apparently well-entrenched at and near the surface, at least this side of the Appalachians.  But we're sort of on the edge of the main Arctic push it seems as these storms approach, enabling the mid-levels to warm even as the near-surface digs in with cold.

10 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

So what is this?

A back yard that looks like it has some nice playground equipment?

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Agreed.  The storms read this forum and if they see a storm thread, they decide not to hit us.  If they don't see a thread, they talk amongst themselves and make the decision to hit us.  

Maybe the models are feeling verklempt!  They must talk amongst themselves!

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not time to mess around today but I briefly looked at the icon surface panels at 114-120 and then looked at surface temps. I was in CO in 1994 so didnt experience that wild winter. I remain very very intrigued for the next 7 days. Just wild what's being spit out daily now

Yeah, if we can't get a decent snow, I guess the next "best" thing in terms of interesting stuff would be sleet and ice!  Or I'd prefer that to 30s and cold rain at least.  Honestly, in the time I've been here (since 2001) I cannot recall a really good ice event with the exception of Feb. 2007 I think.  We've had some light ice accumulation here and there around the metro DC area.  But the sleet bomb in 2007 stands out to me most.  Maybe the sleet in March a couple of years back, too.

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is DC early Tuesday morning while the Shenandoah Valley is getting crushed. The GFS surface map shows this as sleet. When in fact it is ripping fatties. 

That is really close there around and just above 850mb, looks right at or a hair below 0.  I'd think rates would cool it, if they're good enough.  Not to over-analyze such details this far out, but yeah, that is still interesting.

Very interesting map of the snowfall reports from @MN Transplant showed, and the corresponding NAM nest from @high risk.  Definite cutoff as you get closer to the beltway.

I'm just inside the beltway on the northwest side of DC (Chevy Chase area), and got ~0.5" snow/sleet.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess my question is more about the general pattern being modeled...simply, why all the mixy cutters? Lol

Yeah, realized more of what you meant after what I wrote, LOL!  Sorry about that.  Not quite sure how to answer that, though.  I kinda agree with @psuhoffman, the trend has been less interaction of the NS shortwave with the SS, and these systems have tended to end up farther south, rather than plowing right through a big high with strong blocking.  Or at least the CAD hangs on a lot more than indicated farther out in time.

Obviously, snow would be preferable for any of these potential events.  But absent that, I'd certainly prefer a sleet-fest (or ice) over cold rain any day!

21 minutes ago, H2O said:

I have a patio  and it’s clean. It’s got a nice carpet. Short weave

...but not a Short Pump.

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now, this is probably my inexperience, but...I'm perplexed at all these sleet/ice solutions we're seeing despite below freezing temps. I wonder what's going on "under the hood", that is what in the pattern is causing us to have these storms modeled with warmer air aloft?

Check out the 850 temperatures.  They're above 0 nearly the entire time.  Not sure of any other levels.

ETA:  And south winds at 850 as well.

6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Nam is a snowstorm i81 and west for sat/sun.

And still hammering a sleet bomb with temps in the 20s DC/Balt and southeast.  But snow is maybe not that far to their west.

10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Give yourselves credit. At least maybe 6th or 7th grade. If you regress to fart jokes, then 5th is valid. 

And then advance to more clever double entendres when you grow up!!

27 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

My deck is black.

<walks out of the room>

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I have a double level deck. What does that win me? 

Uhhh...more people attending your parties?

Just now, mappy said:

dudes. lol

Just some people comparing outdoor deck sizes and how much they can hold at parties. 

6 minutes ago, snowfan said:

QPF for saturday

 

Is this for what is supposed to be the sleet bomb?

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

They ALWAYS look tasty for 4 days or more.  Same with the GFS...Same with the Euro.  F them all.  I'm about to go full fukushima /three mile island

Don't forget Chernobyl...

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS 200 hour storm is pretty to look at.  F you GFS

Putting the "F" in GFS!!

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You gotta read the room a lot better here.  WE like you and you're kind of an adopted subforum member, but you're still a foreigner.   People here are on edge and shit is setting people off easy.  I think we all know the dangers and more than ever, have skepticism with this storms like never before. 

Agree.  @Wentzadelphia I think is a good guy, and adds to the conversation.  But yeah, need to read the room a bit more concerning the mood before posting something worded like that.  He may be right about next week, who knows, but no point in expounding on how it won't work right now.

Only other thing is, he really needs to keep his phone charged, LOL (gotta throw in some humor there, Wentz)!!! 

Just now, H2O said:

 

It is pure talent when you can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  This part of the region is like the Tom Brady of no snow.  

It definitely gives one a DEFLATED feeling!!! 

Just now, mappy said:

I didn't even want to be here Sunday. the thread was a disaster. 

I looked outside and also walked around taking some photos while it was still pretty out.  Biggest concern I had was that my camera might get wet (fortunately has some element of weather sealing)!!

Just now, wxtrix said:

thanks. after 16 years here, i’m used to it, lol.

i wrote this last night, too:

 

Yeah, I think I ran across that comment you made at some point looking through this thread.  Very good point that some of these maps kill intelligent discussion.  They can be eye candy and fun to look at, but beyond that, gotta keep it real so to speak.  But to say "The ECMWF took away 22" of my snow!!" is just plain aggravating to read again, and again, and again.

1 minute ago, H2O said:

It wears on you.  it really does.  Then you get accused of bias and all other stuff.  All we are trying to do is foster a place where good thoughts and input are made so everyone can learn and discuss.  Problem is that some don't care to do whats asked and they chat away and some get far too emotional about shit they can't control.  Then we have to come mop it up and because some wear their emotions on their sleeves they take it personally.  It happens every year.

Oh, I know what you mean!  Same as it is every year.  Don't get me wrong, I'm sure to some extent we all get disappointed or deflated if snow chances or amounts slip through our fingers and go downhill.  But it's no fun to read through pages and pages of complaints and debbie downers.  I admit at times to feeling frustrated, sure...but I try not to litter this place with useless whining.

2 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

last night i noted that models don’t make forecasts and people personally attacked me for posting a fact.

I saw that, and it was pretty ugly.  Sorry that all happened.

On your point about forecasts, I'll generally agree at least in part.  Models do in a way make "forecasts", as in the complex mathematical equations to estimate the physics and thermodynamics, etc., are designed to project the atmospheric state for X number of hours into the future.  But they are obviously limited by the approximations that must be made for a complicated and chaotic environment, so have their errors, biases, etc.  And there's a certain amount of post-processing done to get the various outputs we see now, based on whatever algorithms are programmed to do so.  Parameters that the models don't actually compute themselves, but are done after to make things more "human readable" so to speak (e.g., 2-m temperature, precip type, snow maps).  I guess what I'm saying is that yes, models are actually more "guidance" than a "forecast", and it's up to scientists/meteorologists to interpret that with their own expertise and knowledge of those models to make an actual forecast.

Not saying this all to be snarky in any way...but it's an interesting philosophical discussion if that makes sense.

1 minute ago, mappy said:

It happens every storm though. people didn't change then, and they won't change now. its a moderating nightmare.

Sounds like Dante's Inferno for moderators...