Scarlet Pimpernel

7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Euro folding like a wet napkin. What it’s folding to, I have no idea, but it’s folding nonetheless.

More like a dry napkin...

2 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Oh You Tube is a gold mine for stuff like this. Look up Octopus hotdogs, just saying...

 

 

That's just...

There are no words!

11 minutes ago, H2O said:

I might deserve to get banned after posting that video for you all to watch

First, you gave us Vienna sausage wieners in gelled Spaghettios...and now this!  What next...wait, I don't think we want to know! 

Looks to me like this should overall be a low-end warning or high end advisory event over the course of about 2 days.  Not bad!  And it will be cold.  That's perhaps the biggest difference here from the long-duration event.  Just think...not even a week ago we were discussing the potential of a serious ice event around the metro area (DC/Balt), and now we're looking at all snow.  I think there still is the potential for significant ice (?), but farther south.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Look near the Va border on your map and then on the WB map. 

I think you're referring to the 2nd map @Deck Pic posted which I assume covers the entire event (the 1st one he posted only covered into late Thursday)...and comparing that to the total event Kuchera WB map that a couple of others put up here?  I'm guessing it's a difference in methodology, 10:1 vs. Kuchera.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ok there’s a major disconnect between the maps being posted here.

Kuchera vs. 10:1 ratio, perhaps?

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

The Thursday night batch catches us up.  Run truncates...based on 12z, we may add another 1-2" on top of this

So it would seem the 2nd wave is looking like the more significant one, or that seems to have been the trend.

6 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Smart man. 

I know!  One should never, ever try to out-RavensRule you when it comes to risque humor and double entendres!!

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Watch those 850’s come down as we go forward. With a high like that to our north no way those 850’s end up that high. That’s my prediction 

In a weird way, it seems reminiscent of the Feb. 2007 storm (Valentine's Day), though I am pretty sure the evolution wasn't quite the same.  I can't remember offhand how the 2007 event looked in its development.  But what is kind of similar is the entrenched cold air despite a more northwest track like shown.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I woke up at 4:15am and busted my ass all day so I could waste time here tonight. Exactly what I've been trying to avoid tho.... Old habits die hard I suppose. 

Dammit, Bob!  It's like you're falling off the wagon here, giving in to those old addictions!

Thank goodness!!! 

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

First time I've ever had this problem... I'm having the hardest time deciding which model to hug... it's making me sweaty with a few shakes and twitches... hmmm.... what to do what to do..... AHHHH! I figured it out!  I'll just do what @ravensrule would do! HUG THEM ALL! Then schedule uber rides home for them on Sunday. And make the models pay for it too! This is going to be sweet. 

Uhhhh, not sure anyone would necessarily want to do what @ravensrule would do!! LOL!!! 

But more seriously and weather-related...gotta love that essentially every model is now looking pretty good for Wed night-Thurs and Thurs night-Fri.  Not too bad a place to be situated at this point.

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

How old are you???

How about I mail you a check so you can ditch the DVD player and purchase a subscription to Hulu.

Can you just wire the money via Western Union?? 

50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did I finally get fired? Or is my office moved down to auxiliary storage B? Can I keep my stapler?

18 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

i hope to be pre-warned by a warner. and i hope that the warning is worded warningly.

We never get fair warning.  Hell, we barely get told to watch out before you're issued an advisory that you might be banned!

Oh, and @H2O, Rolex watches are pretty good!  Not that I own one.  If I did, the cost would result in an over-draft warning from my bank!

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

850s look super iffy, but man that cold air is wedged good. As I said mentioning the GFS' mishandling of how our ridge shapes up, this has been what it's been shifting to for the past two runs. Just need that to continue...

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Sleet bomb.  Surface is cold.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Doesn't cut....Ice

Yeah, looks like a definite improvement over its past couple or so runs for the weekend.  Not at the level of the weenie run from 12Z yesterday, but beats the rain storm it did have before.

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

After last week, I’m skittish as ****.  If the Euro/uk holds then yeah, NAM can eat it

Yeah, pretty much agree...though obviously not good to see it jump on being farther north now.  Wasn't it a lot better just 12 hours ago with its 00Z run?  Tells us how tricky this setup can be, I guess.

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

Did not go back a page to see those posts I did about the 06z EPS... failed i have with this post

 

Mmmmm.  Too impulsive you were!  Clouded your mind was!

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I really enjoy this sub and the back and forth but there are two things that make me want to peel my own skin. 
 

Clamoring about starting threads and musing about when warnings will be posted.

The whiplash and cognitive dissonance is almost amusing.  "NO, don't start a thread, it will jinx it!!!"..."When the hell are they going to issue a watch?!"

48 minutes ago, Ji said:

50 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I can't wait to see the animated gif showing the troubling trends of this going south.

We're one tick from being in the gray

Wish some people were one tick from being five-posted! 

39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If the next 3-4 weeks dont provide at least 1 flush hit, I don't think even I could avoid a complete record breaking meltdown here. Then I would find the internet master power supply cord and cut it with a chainsaw. 

You can go all-out Panic Room meltdown, it might even scare the Reaper if that's possible!! 

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The icon has the precip but shows rain after a while. But looking at its temps they never approach freezing. Don’t think that model shows anything other than snow or rain. We wouldn’t be getting any rain in that depiction.

I seem to recall hearing that for whatever reason, the ICON only shows rain/snow for precip type and doesn't depict freezing or sleet.  Maybe that's what's happening here, where some of that "rain" is actually ice.

Just now, high risk said:

     I'm talking about the Thursday-Friday event.     Still time to change, but it certainly looks like we will be too warm upstairs for all snow.    My point is that the GFS often wipes out the cold air at the surface and turns us to rain, so when I see it maintain the below freezing temps throughout the event and give us a big ice accumulation, the threat is really legit.

Yes, agree.  I haven't been too "big" on any real snow for Thu-Fri, really, though of course it would be nice if we can be on that side of the boundary.  However, models have been honking what could be a prolific ice event around here during that time for a little while.  Not something you normally see so consistently like this.

As for snow, seems our better chances for that would be after Thu-Fri, when there are some indications the Arctic air will be pressing more and we'll perhaps be into deeper cold.  Though that's gone back and forth out at this range of course.  GFS for next weekend would be the weeniest chance of all, LOL!

This would be a nice follow-up after some ice Thu-Fri (quite cold, too)...

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm too lazy but WW (or anyone), post 850s temps + wind barb panels when it counts. Some runs have northerly flow in the mid levels fighting back the waa surge and others move that battlezone north of us. Precip trajectory is sweet if that look holds. If we want good snow we need to be on the winning side of the midlevel battle zone. It's a very touchy setup there. Low confidence until a particular solution becomes consensus and even then we're playing with fire here. 

Hey Bob...is this sort of what you were looking for, at 850mb?  This is one image at 12Z Thursday after we lose the 850s...winds were out of the southwest through that time.  The 10 meter streamlines @Weather Will put up definitely show the CAD near the surface below this, and 2-m temperatures reflect that as well.

From a little earlier this morning.  Simplicity of black and white works so well with snow!