Scarlet Pimpernel

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You gotta read the room a lot better here.  WE like you and you're kind of an adopted subforum member, but you're still a foreigner.   People here are on edge and shit is setting people off easy.  I think we all know the dangers and more than ever, have skepticism with this storms like never before. 

Agree.  @Wentzadelphia I think is a good guy, and adds to the conversation.  But yeah, need to read the room a bit more concerning the mood before posting something worded like that.  He may be right about next week, who knows, but no point in expounding on how it won't work right now.

Only other thing is, he really needs to keep his phone charged, LOL (gotta throw in some humor there, Wentz)!!! 

Just now, H2O said:

 

It is pure talent when you can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  This part of the region is like the Tom Brady of no snow.  

It definitely gives one a DEFLATED feeling!!! 

Just now, mappy said:

I didn't even want to be here Sunday. the thread was a disaster. 

I looked outside and also walked around taking some photos while it was still pretty out.  Biggest concern I had was that my camera might get wet (fortunately has some element of weather sealing)!!

Just now, wxtrix said:

thanks. after 16 years here, i’m used to it, lol.

i wrote this last night, too:

 

Yeah, I think I ran across that comment you made at some point looking through this thread.  Very good point that some of these maps kill intelligent discussion.  They can be eye candy and fun to look at, but beyond that, gotta keep it real so to speak.  But to say "The ECMWF took away 22" of my snow!!" is just plain aggravating to read again, and again, and again.

1 minute ago, H2O said:

It wears on you.  it really does.  Then you get accused of bias and all other stuff.  All we are trying to do is foster a place where good thoughts and input are made so everyone can learn and discuss.  Problem is that some don't care to do whats asked and they chat away and some get far too emotional about shit they can't control.  Then we have to come mop it up and because some wear their emotions on their sleeves they take it personally.  It happens every year.

Oh, I know what you mean!  Same as it is every year.  Don't get me wrong, I'm sure to some extent we all get disappointed or deflated if snow chances or amounts slip through our fingers and go downhill.  But it's no fun to read through pages and pages of complaints and debbie downers.  I admit at times to feeling frustrated, sure...but I try not to litter this place with useless whining.

2 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

last night i noted that models don’t make forecasts and people personally attacked me for posting a fact.

I saw that, and it was pretty ugly.  Sorry that all happened.

On your point about forecasts, I'll generally agree at least in part.  Models do in a way make "forecasts", as in the complex mathematical equations to estimate the physics and thermodynamics, etc., are designed to project the atmospheric state for X number of hours into the future.  But they are obviously limited by the approximations that must be made for a complicated and chaotic environment, so have their errors, biases, etc.  And there's a certain amount of post-processing done to get the various outputs we see now, based on whatever algorithms are programmed to do so.  Parameters that the models don't actually compute themselves, but are done after to make things more "human readable" so to speak (e.g., 2-m temperature, precip type, snow maps).  I guess what I'm saying is that yes, models are actually more "guidance" than a "forecast", and it's up to scientists/meteorologists to interpret that with their own expertise and knowledge of those models to make an actual forecast.

Not saying this all to be snarky in any way...but it's an interesting philosophical discussion if that makes sense.

1 minute ago, mappy said:

It happens every storm though. people didn't change then, and they won't change now. its a moderating nightmare.

Sounds like Dante's Inferno for moderators...

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We having fun yet? It's comical man. First slug didnt get consenus until 7 hours ago and it broke mostly the right way. Instead of celebrating that, seems the focus is on the second piece that is still 36-48 hours away. I can't participate in a mental health clinic. I try to present very sound reasons why strapping into the emotional roller coaster too early is dumb but not one person who actually needs the advice listens. There is a lot of irony on this forum. It becomes 5x more apparent after an extended break.

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'll drop this here. Hopefully people read it. 

Neary EVERY single event here that produces will have a suite or several suites of models early in the short range that are overdone. Often waaaaay overdone. Expect it. Understand it. Respect it. But whatever you do dont hug it. EVER. 

Anyone? Hello? [Crickets]

Thank you, thank you, thank you! 

Everyone sees the occasional crazy snow map that gives us a foot or more and clings to that.  Then it comes back to more reality for the given synoptic setup and there's a freak out.  Nice to see and laugh about excessive amounts that get urped up now and then, but otherwise, come on folks!  That said, sure it's disappointing to see things sort of "dry up" more.  But this event (or events, 2 waves?) was never going to be an area-wide big time producer of snow.  I had my mind kind of hoping for 3-5" or 3-6" on the more upper end; probably won't reach that where I am now, but even 2-4" is nice at this point.  Given that barely a week ago this looked like ice to rain, I'd have to call a decent advisory-level snowfall a win.  And it won't be like this past Sunday where it all melted 2 hours later (at least where I'm at...but looked pretty while it was snowing!).  Fact is, tonight and tomorrow look wintry.  That's mostly my take-away here.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM.  We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. 

Yeah, it's been really persistent about that for awhile now.  I hope that's not necessarily correlated with the now notably higher QPF amounts (for first wave)...i.e., we can only get higher precip if we get the mix around this area.

7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Euro folding like a wet napkin. What it’s folding to, I have no idea, but it’s folding nonetheless.

More like a dry napkin...

2 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Oh You Tube is a gold mine for stuff like this. Look up Octopus hotdogs, just saying...

 

 

That's just...

There are no words!

11 minutes ago, H2O said:

I might deserve to get banned after posting that video for you all to watch

First, you gave us Vienna sausage wieners in gelled Spaghettios...and now this!  What next...wait, I don't think we want to know! 

Looks to me like this should overall be a low-end warning or high end advisory event over the course of about 2 days.  Not bad!  And it will be cold.  That's perhaps the biggest difference here from the long-duration event.  Just think...not even a week ago we were discussing the potential of a serious ice event around the metro area (DC/Balt), and now we're looking at all snow.  I think there still is the potential for significant ice (?), but farther south.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Look near the Va border on your map and then on the WB map. 

I think you're referring to the 2nd map @Deck Pic posted which I assume covers the entire event (the 1st one he posted only covered into late Thursday)...and comparing that to the total event Kuchera WB map that a couple of others put up here?  I'm guessing it's a difference in methodology, 10:1 vs. Kuchera.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ok there’s a major disconnect between the maps being posted here.

Kuchera vs. 10:1 ratio, perhaps?

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

The Thursday night batch catches us up.  Run truncates...based on 12z, we may add another 1-2" on top of this

So it would seem the 2nd wave is looking like the more significant one, or that seems to have been the trend.

6 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Smart man. 

I know!  One should never, ever try to out-RavensRule you when it comes to risque humor and double entendres!!

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Watch those 850’s come down as we go forward. With a high like that to our north no way those 850’s end up that high. That’s my prediction 

In a weird way, it seems reminiscent of the Feb. 2007 storm (Valentine's Day), though I am pretty sure the evolution wasn't quite the same.  I can't remember offhand how the 2007 event looked in its development.  But what is kind of similar is the entrenched cold air despite a more northwest track like shown.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I woke up at 4:15am and busted my ass all day so I could waste time here tonight. Exactly what I've been trying to avoid tho.... Old habits die hard I suppose. 

Dammit, Bob!  It's like you're falling off the wagon here, giving in to those old addictions!

Thank goodness!!! 

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

First time I've ever had this problem... I'm having the hardest time deciding which model to hug... it's making me sweaty with a few shakes and twitches... hmmm.... what to do what to do..... AHHHH! I figured it out!  I'll just do what @ravensrule would do! HUG THEM ALL! Then schedule uber rides home for them on Sunday. And make the models pay for it too! This is going to be sweet. 

Uhhhh, not sure anyone would necessarily want to do what @ravensrule would do!! LOL!!! 

But more seriously and weather-related...gotta love that essentially every model is now looking pretty good for Wed night-Thurs and Thurs night-Fri.  Not too bad a place to be situated at this point.

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

How old are you???

How about I mail you a check so you can ditch the DVD player and purchase a subscription to Hulu.

Can you just wire the money via Western Union?? 

50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did I finally get fired? Or is my office moved down to auxiliary storage B? Can I keep my stapler?

18 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

i hope to be pre-warned by a warner. and i hope that the warning is worded warningly.

We never get fair warning.  Hell, we barely get told to watch out before you're issued an advisory that you might be banned!

Oh, and @H2O, Rolex watches are pretty good!  Not that I own one.  If I did, the cost would result in an over-draft warning from my bank!

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

850s look super iffy, but man that cold air is wedged good. As I said mentioning the GFS' mishandling of how our ridge shapes up, this has been what it's been shifting to for the past two runs. Just need that to continue...

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Sleet bomb.  Surface is cold.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Doesn't cut....Ice

Yeah, looks like a definite improvement over its past couple or so runs for the weekend.  Not at the level of the weenie run from 12Z yesterday, but beats the rain storm it did have before.

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

After last week, I’m skittish as ****.  If the Euro/uk holds then yeah, NAM can eat it

Yeah, pretty much agree...though obviously not good to see it jump on being farther north now.  Wasn't it a lot better just 12 hours ago with its 00Z run?  Tells us how tricky this setup can be, I guess.