Scarlet Pimpernel

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is DC early Tuesday morning while the Shenandoah Valley is getting crushed. The GFS surface map shows this as sleet. When in fact it is ripping fatties. 

That is really close there around and just above 850mb, looks right at or a hair below 0.  I'd think rates would cool it, if they're good enough.  Not to over-analyze such details this far out, but yeah, that is still interesting.

Very interesting map of the snowfall reports from @MN Transplant showed, and the corresponding NAM nest from @high risk.  Definite cutoff as you get closer to the beltway.

I'm just inside the beltway on the northwest side of DC (Chevy Chase area), and got ~0.5" snow/sleet.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess my question is more about the general pattern being modeled...simply, why all the mixy cutters? Lol

Yeah, realized more of what you meant after what I wrote, LOL!  Sorry about that.  Not quite sure how to answer that, though.  I kinda agree with @psuhoffman, the trend has been less interaction of the NS shortwave with the SS, and these systems have tended to end up farther south, rather than plowing right through a big high with strong blocking.  Or at least the CAD hangs on a lot more than indicated farther out in time.

Obviously, snow would be preferable for any of these potential events.  But absent that, I'd certainly prefer a sleet-fest (or ice) over cold rain any day!

21 minutes ago, H2O said:

I have a patio  and it’s clean. It’s got a nice carpet. Short weave

...but not a Short Pump.

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now, this is probably my inexperience, but...I'm perplexed at all these sleet/ice solutions we're seeing despite below freezing temps. I wonder what's going on "under the hood", that is what in the pattern is causing us to have these storms modeled with warmer air aloft?

Check out the 850 temperatures.  They're above 0 nearly the entire time.  Not sure of any other levels.

ETA:  And south winds at 850 as well.

6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Nam is a snowstorm i81 and west for sat/sun.

And still hammering a sleet bomb with temps in the 20s DC/Balt and southeast.  But snow is maybe not that far to their west.

10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Give yourselves credit. At least maybe 6th or 7th grade. If you regress to fart jokes, then 5th is valid. 

And then advance to more clever double entendres when you grow up!!

27 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

My deck is black.

<walks out of the room>

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I have a double level deck. What does that win me? 

Uhhh...more people attending your parties?

Just now, mappy said:

dudes. lol

Just some people comparing outdoor deck sizes and how much they can hold at parties. 

6 minutes ago, snowfan said:

QPF for saturday

 

Is this for what is supposed to be the sleet bomb?

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

They ALWAYS look tasty for 4 days or more.  Same with the GFS...Same with the Euro.  F them all.  I'm about to go full fukushima /three mile island

Don't forget Chernobyl...

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS 200 hour storm is pretty to look at.  F you GFS

Putting the "F" in GFS!!

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You gotta read the room a lot better here.  WE like you and you're kind of an adopted subforum member, but you're still a foreigner.   People here are on edge and shit is setting people off easy.  I think we all know the dangers and more than ever, have skepticism with this storms like never before. 

Agree.  @Wentzadelphia I think is a good guy, and adds to the conversation.  But yeah, need to read the room a bit more concerning the mood before posting something worded like that.  He may be right about next week, who knows, but no point in expounding on how it won't work right now.

Only other thing is, he really needs to keep his phone charged, LOL (gotta throw in some humor there, Wentz)!!! 

Just now, H2O said:

 

It is pure talent when you can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  This part of the region is like the Tom Brady of no snow.  

It definitely gives one a DEFLATED feeling!!! 

Just now, mappy said:

I didn't even want to be here Sunday. the thread was a disaster. 

I looked outside and also walked around taking some photos while it was still pretty out.  Biggest concern I had was that my camera might get wet (fortunately has some element of weather sealing)!!

Just now, wxtrix said:

thanks. after 16 years here, i’m used to it, lol.

i wrote this last night, too:

 

Yeah, I think I ran across that comment you made at some point looking through this thread.  Very good point that some of these maps kill intelligent discussion.  They can be eye candy and fun to look at, but beyond that, gotta keep it real so to speak.  But to say "The ECMWF took away 22" of my snow!!" is just plain aggravating to read again, and again, and again.

1 minute ago, H2O said:

It wears on you.  it really does.  Then you get accused of bias and all other stuff.  All we are trying to do is foster a place where good thoughts and input are made so everyone can learn and discuss.  Problem is that some don't care to do whats asked and they chat away and some get far too emotional about shit they can't control.  Then we have to come mop it up and because some wear their emotions on their sleeves they take it personally.  It happens every year.

Oh, I know what you mean!  Same as it is every year.  Don't get me wrong, I'm sure to some extent we all get disappointed or deflated if snow chances or amounts slip through our fingers and go downhill.  But it's no fun to read through pages and pages of complaints and debbie downers.  I admit at times to feeling frustrated, sure...but I try not to litter this place with useless whining.

2 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

last night i noted that models don’t make forecasts and people personally attacked me for posting a fact.

I saw that, and it was pretty ugly.  Sorry that all happened.

On your point about forecasts, I'll generally agree at least in part.  Models do in a way make "forecasts", as in the complex mathematical equations to estimate the physics and thermodynamics, etc., are designed to project the atmospheric state for X number of hours into the future.  But they are obviously limited by the approximations that must be made for a complicated and chaotic environment, so have their errors, biases, etc.  And there's a certain amount of post-processing done to get the various outputs we see now, based on whatever algorithms are programmed to do so.  Parameters that the models don't actually compute themselves, but are done after to make things more "human readable" so to speak (e.g., 2-m temperature, precip type, snow maps).  I guess what I'm saying is that yes, models are actually more "guidance" than a "forecast", and it's up to scientists/meteorologists to interpret that with their own expertise and knowledge of those models to make an actual forecast.

Not saying this all to be snarky in any way...but it's an interesting philosophical discussion if that makes sense.

1 minute ago, mappy said:

It happens every storm though. people didn't change then, and they won't change now. its a moderating nightmare.

Sounds like Dante's Inferno for moderators...

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We having fun yet? It's comical man. First slug didnt get consenus until 7 hours ago and it broke mostly the right way. Instead of celebrating that, seems the focus is on the second piece that is still 36-48 hours away. I can't participate in a mental health clinic. I try to present very sound reasons why strapping into the emotional roller coaster too early is dumb but not one person who actually needs the advice listens. There is a lot of irony on this forum. It becomes 5x more apparent after an extended break.

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'll drop this here. Hopefully people read it. 

Neary EVERY single event here that produces will have a suite or several suites of models early in the short range that are overdone. Often waaaaay overdone. Expect it. Understand it. Respect it. But whatever you do dont hug it. EVER. 

Anyone? Hello? [Crickets]

Thank you, thank you, thank you! 

Everyone sees the occasional crazy snow map that gives us a foot or more and clings to that.  Then it comes back to more reality for the given synoptic setup and there's a freak out.  Nice to see and laugh about excessive amounts that get urped up now and then, but otherwise, come on folks!  That said, sure it's disappointing to see things sort of "dry up" more.  But this event (or events, 2 waves?) was never going to be an area-wide big time producer of snow.  I had my mind kind of hoping for 3-5" or 3-6" on the more upper end; probably won't reach that where I am now, but even 2-4" is nice at this point.  Given that barely a week ago this looked like ice to rain, I'd have to call a decent advisory-level snowfall a win.  And it won't be like this past Sunday where it all melted 2 hours later (at least where I'm at...but looked pretty while it was snowing!).  Fact is, tonight and tomorrow look wintry.  That's mostly my take-away here.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM.  We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. 

Yeah, it's been really persistent about that for awhile now.  I hope that's not necessarily correlated with the now notably higher QPF amounts (for first wave)...i.e., we can only get higher precip if we get the mix around this area.

7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Euro folding like a wet napkin. What it’s folding to, I have no idea, but it’s folding nonetheless.

More like a dry napkin...

2 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Oh You Tube is a gold mine for stuff like this. Look up Octopus hotdogs, just saying...

 

 

That's just...

There are no words!

11 minutes ago, H2O said:

I might deserve to get banned after posting that video for you all to watch

First, you gave us Vienna sausage wieners in gelled Spaghettios...and now this!  What next...wait, I don't think we want to know!