Scarlet Pimpernel

That ICON again looks like potential ice/sleet just immediately along and northwest of I-95.  Just going by the 2-m temp and precip type on TT (and the ICON shows ZR/IP as "rain").  Can't see what levels above the surface are like.  Also, maybe this was mentioned before...but I don't necessarily think our "problem" (at least nearer to the metros) is so much the location/path of the southern low, but that low north of the Lakes that moves east-northeast and whatever front that takes its time moving through.  How fast can we get cold air in here as the low to the south moves up toward the coast and can there be enough of a push?  The temps actually seem to cool slightly or at least stay "constant" during the precip.  Obviously that's all inter-related in some fashion.  Probably being master of the obvious here, so sorry if that's the case, but just bringing that up.

17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ICON is like a legit coastal.  Man....if we can get this as even 80% snow...

Verbatim, the immediate DC area and along I-95 would quite possibly be snow to ice looking at the 2-m temperatures.  Yeah, I know, looking at ICON details for an event that far out...but yeah, it's close in the metro areas...and northern tier (maybe even southern northern tier, hahaha!) would get hammered with snow.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Ge JInesis 1:1

FYP...

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

       LOL.   It was too much and too confusing for me to write  "for the southern half of the northern tier."    

  

It's like Peter Schickele with "PDQ Bach" talking about the University of Southern North Dakota.

1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Can we start with like a week of dry weather? Seattle East is getting a little cumbersome.

Yeah, I hear you...a string of clear, pleasant days would be nice sometime this spring (after one more good snow event to close out the season!).  While I don't care for weeks on end drought, I've about had my fill of cold, dank rain that seems to occur every other day.  Of course, I had to make the (obvious!) pun on drought vs. draught in my comment above! ; )

1 hour ago, GATECH said:

 I want to track a drought.  Once we are out of snow season I want an honest to goodness drought, days upon days of dry weather with zero clouds.  When was the last time we had one of those.  Bring on water restrictions!

Not sure I want an all-out severe drought...but I'd definitely be up for some good draughts anytime!! 

3 hours ago, gymengineer said:

Did anyone say any of that in this thread? Of course sun angle matters. Of course it takes more positive factors for snow to stick on roads in March. The point is that it’s not unusual or particularly difficult for snow to stick to roads during the daytime in March. It doesn’t even have to snow all that hard if it’s cold like on 3/2/14.

I know, right?!  Nobody is claiming the sun angle and increasing mean temperatures are non-factors as you get into March (even later in Feb.).  Or that you don't need good rates more so in March than in January.  But too many comments every year seem to poo-poo the ability to get really good events in March, as if it's exceedingly rare around here or requires overly extreme conditions.  I think part of that is because at least some people think snow in March sucks because typically it's gone in a relatively short time period.  Fair enough, if that's what one's preference is.  Personally, I don't care so much about that, though admittedly it is nice if we can keep snow around for awhile.  Heck, just last week it was in the 50s the very day after we all got several inches of snow (and some ice)...by the end of the day, you would have hardly believed we had a snowstorm a mere 24 hours before.  Most of the time, we don't hang on to snow cover all that long around here any time during the winter, really, unless we have unusually prolonged cold or we get some HECS event that lays down a ton of snow cover that takes awhile to melt away.

Also, precisely ONE of the NINE photos I posted was taken at night, and only because that event (Mar. 2017 snow/sleet) mostly occurred at night...though we kept a solid 3" block of sleet through the entirety of the next day and it was cold.  And NorthArlington posted just one nighttime photo.  All others I saw in this thread were taken at some point during the day, many of them mid-day.

Here's a collage of photos I took of various March snow events since I've lived here.  The first one (Mar. 2009) was when I lived in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC, all the others taken after I moved to the Silver Spring/Chevy Chase/Bethesda, MD area.  So it's not like I lived way north and west in some highly favored region outside the metro area or anything like that.  Also note the Mar. 1, 2015 event was ice and sleet, which occurred in broad daylight no less!  So much for the "we can't get ice in March" idea.  Note that two of these snows were as late as March 25, 2013 and 2014, when I recorded 4" and 3", respectively (also is my birthday, which made both events extra special for me!).  And the "St. Patrick's Day Snow" in 2014, I measured 8", quite impressive for that late in the season here.

@psuhoffman, recently there has been some "disappointment" suggested by some about the Mar. 1-3 possibility, which is now looking a lot less decent.  However, my impression from the past few or so days is that that time period was not exactly quite favorable yet anyhow, though there were some good model runs for that event.  It seems that you, @showmethesnow, and @Bob Chill were more "enthused" (so to speak) about the Mar. 4-8 time frame.  Maybe I've got that wrong, but that's the impression I had.  So while I haven't completely written off the first couple days of March, I've been focusing on the first full week of the month as our better window.  Not sure if I have that idea correct, but like I said, in reading the past few days that's the overall sense I got.

With all that said, and with all the fail scenarios firmly in place in my mind (always gotta have those in mind around here!), that 500-mb setup you show is very intriguing!  Could come to nothing in the end of course...but that's as good a signal as you'll see in that time range.  I'm not even thinking or looking (seriously) for some big 1993 bomb or other HECS here...a solid warning-level snow followed by a couple days of legit cold would be a fine way to have winter bow out for the year.  Of course, I sure as hell won't complain if the models "latch on" to a HECS setup and we end up with that...it would be loads of fun!

And I have to say something about the "sun angle" nay-sayers...yes, it's a factor of course, especially as you get into March.  But it gets annoying hearing it year after year, as if it automatically means we can't do well with snow.  Not to mention it was annoying to have it derail this thread for about 3 pages the other day.  Sun angle and increasing average temperature doesn't in any way preclude very good accumulating snows even on paved surfaces during a good event.  Sure, the snow may in most cases disappear afterward with a couple of sunny days, but I've also experienced enough good events followed by some cold air right after for a day or so (i.e., below freezing highs in March).  And to beat the dead horse I'll say again like other have, that we've had many recent warning-level snow events in March, even into the 2nd half of the month.  I'll keep saying that as long as the tired sun angle argument is trotted out!

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Might want to swap the legend meanings for yellow and red...

3.3" at around 9AM...Chevy Chase, MD.

Just now, supernovasky said:

And oh my god. Do NOT try to drive in this stuff. Got about 2" in Germantown right now but the snow is SUPER slick and slippery. The roads... people kept saying they'd be fine and would stay above 32. Yeah, that's NOT the case in Germantown right now. The roads are littered with cars with their flashers on just sitting there.

Agree.  Where I'm at (Chevy Chase/Silver Spring area), even main roads are covered and treacherous.  East-West Hwy, Conn Ave, etc.  I had to drive in it briefly earlier this morning when it just started getting bad.  People need to realize you just have to keep driving slowly and steadily (lower gear), and *not* just stop out of the blue.

Just now, Jebman said:

You are gonna keep right on getting Jeb'd LOL

LOL!  Better than getting NAM'd!!  Thanks for your ever-positive attitude with snow, much appreciated around here!!

FWIW, I looked at the HRRR (12Z) just to see what it showed...temperatures are still just below freezing through 00Z this evening along I95 corridor.

Right now...looks very pretty out, large flakes, pounding snow!  We're getting Jeb'd!! 

Coming down good here (dare I use the word "ripping"?)...Chevy Chase, MD.  Went out to get some photos.  Roads are covered, even the main ones.  Around 2" on the ground now.

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Radar looks solid but there is no way all the guidance is wrong about when meaninful precip breaks out over each of our yards. Even if onset ends up being 3 hours early or whatever it won't change the outcome for many. The good lift/frontogen is likely very well modeled. Even if onset comes early it will prob be inconsequential until things get more dynamic later overnight for you and around dawn for my yard.

This will be a fun event. Sleet is more disruptive on the roads than snowfall. An inch or 2 of frozen ball bearing on the roads can wreak havoc worse than snowfall.

Agree. And BTW I remember that Feb 2014 event you mentioned, if it's the one that dumped on us overnight for hours, followed by sleet then dry slot/drizzle much of next day. 

It should be a fun event for sure. My hope is to keep the surface cold into the evening (hold off all rain long as possible), or at least have the complement of the day be wintry with snow and sleet. 

Welcome back Mr. Chill, sir!  And yes, let's do this...looking forward to tomorrow!

Cloudy, feels wintry out but no idea of exact temp. Probably like mid 30s. 

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’ve blown the budget to get Bob, Leesburg, and Ji on staff, what can I say..

Wow, showmethesnow must have charged you a lot to work for you!  And I thought Ji's price is low, he jumps early (and often)...

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

As the 12z run if the European model plunges our subforum into chaos, I just want to remind folks that I’m here for you. 

1-800-REAPME2

I am standing by. 

 

 

Whoa...going high tech I see...must have an app for that now!  Android and Iphone compatible, and ad-free?   Just think how easy it would be...downtrodden weenies run the app, and you automatically reap their souls!  Just like mobile banking!

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hrpderps looks really thumpy!

But what does the hrpderps simplex 2 model say? 

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm heartened to know that I'll actually be in town for this one. Haven't followed terribly deeply yet, but with a nice CAD signal and a cold front end thump, I think the DC can do pretty well. I think the LWX map might be a tad bullish, I am concerned that we end up with more icing than mixing if warm air aloft is too fast in arriving, but we're probably right where we want to be. 

I shouldn't have left. Some of y'all are lapping me in snowfall. 

Yeah a bit surprised how bullish LWX is on that initial map, this early.  Then again was likewise surprised how much snow they went with at first for the January event so who knows. Icing is obviously a major concern even in the metro area, moreso than last week. 

Stay calm folks. Bob is just out shopping for those cherry red speedos he mentioned, in advance of the storm. And the neighbors are getting a bit nervous! 

47 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yep, Hebrew National is another favorite of mine. I keep it simple though. Just a roll and ketchup.

They do answer to a Higher Authority, after all...(if you remember those ads!)

30 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Did showme get reaped or something? Did I miss something?

Ha!  No way...he laughed in the Reaper's face many a time!!  Maybe he's taking a sabbatical like Chill is, due to some of the inane commentary in the other discussion threads.  Can't blame him (or Bob Chill) if that's the case, to be honest.  It was getting pretty bad in here.  Or...maybe he and Chill are reading all this "offline" in a bar somewhere, laughing their asses off at everyone else fumbling along with the PBP of the models and analysis!! 

A couple of others have mentioned a similarity to the VD storm in Feb. 2007.  I can sort of see that, but I don't know if this setup is as good as then.  Certainly different...didn't we have actual blocking at that time in 2007?  Also, the antecedent air was quite cold with that VD storm.  We got nearly all sleet in the DC area, which froze into a solid block of ice after the event.  That's I think the main difference...we had a week of solid cold right after, we won't have that this time (it's going to be warm after this is over).  But like I said, I can see some of the similarities too.  This also seems reminiscent of that Feb. 2015 event that started with extremely cold temps...though again, obviously this won't start with single-digits like that one.  History may not repeat, but it does rhyme, as they say...or something like that.