Scarlet Pimpernel

16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Did that happen during Commutagedon too?

Not sure of that. That storm was more driven by an intense upper low that went through, it was very convective as I recall. But it did involve cooling and rain to ice to heavy wet snow. 

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs ends well. I guess if you can’t get it on the front you take it in the back. 

Oh my... Paging @ravensrule, cleanup on aisle 5 of the medium range thread! 

Anyhow more on topic. I certainly agree that these trailing wave or precip chasing cold scenarios are not common here and do not work out very often. Best recent example I can think of is March 2015. But the possibility here is intriguing for sure, even if not high probability at this point. This idea has shown up from time to time in the past few days for this event. I think it would actually be kinda cool if it worked out. With the understanding that it's a bit of a long shot right now. 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That changeover and snow amount would rival Jan 27, 2011.  Paste bomb in about 9 hours that crippled DC and Baltimore. 

That storm was more like 8" in about 5 hours (where I'm at), but yeah it was pretty incredible!

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

It has northern burbs 4-6, DC 6-8, and south and east 8-10, all in 6 hours. 

Thanks for the info.  Probably not likely at this point, but man that would be cool at the same time a flash freeze is going on!

17 minutes ago, H2O said:

He might not have heard prince died

There are rumors that the Titanic sunk...

6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Euro has us dropping from 55 to 25 in 6 hours Sunday afternoon...talk about a cold front. 

Probably overly extreme, I'm sure.  But wow, that would be unreal and I'd have to imagine that comes in on a blast of wind.  The fastest temperature drop I experienced was the 1978 blizzard in Ohio, 30 degrees in two hours (mid 40s to mid teens)...along with 70+ MPH gusts.

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, not good but throws a wrinkle with stringing out the system. Trailing piece works a little. Makes you contemplate the front running stuff moving faster and dragging the boundary for the trailer. 

What happens with the trailing piece, if much of anything?  There were various ops and individual ensemble solutions recently that showed a similar kind of idea, kind of interesting.  That cold air moves in like a boss.

(ETA: 'd by WxUSAF!!)

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GEFS is a shotgun of solutions. A few pure rainers. Mostly mixed events. Some front end like the op. Others cut then develop a trailing wave that flips to snow. And a few pure snow solutions. A lot of ice in there. But if were being optimistic it was an improvement over 6z even considering a lot of that “snow” is actually ice. 

All over the place of course!  Given what's been discussed lately and from what we've seen in the latest model runs, I'd tend to think the pure snow solutions are low probability.  I do find the idea of a trailing wave flipping to snow kind of interesting.  Not saying it's high probability either or anything like that, but a couple of ops runs in the past few days showed that scenario with the cold air pushing in very quickly.

54 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Oh my god guys, I have a pile of snow that is 3' high from shoveling. My son now has a tiny shovel that a neighbor gave me. I really got to meet all of my neighbors who helped a clueless person like me figure out how to deal with all the snow. This is great. Bonus pictures! 11.5" was my final snowfall amount.

 

SNOW IS AWESOME!

 

 

That's right...start 'em off early with doing the chores!  Uphill, both ways, with the sun in your eyes!  And like it! 

But seriously...nice photos, and glad your first "real" snow event since being in this area was so fun!

(ETA:  I heard Jebman offers training courses in proper shoveling technique!)

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I was looking at the EPS this morning and the AO looks negative to me through day 15. Not something I would worry over. 

Not sure, but maybe frd mixed up the NAO plot with an AO one (the one he shows is for NAO).  I don't honestly know how either one has been trending over the past few days.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The weather has been fine. Most of this forum will be ahead of climo even if we don’t get another inch of snow in January, which is very unlikely given the train of storms coming.  You are correct the system next weekend favors rain att over snow but it’s not locked, there are ways it could work. And if not so what it’s one storm. We will have plenty of more chances. And finally the problem with you is you are like the long range version of snjokoma where all you do it point out what looks bad and then repeat it over and over and over. And your not even in your home forum.  You aren’t here in good faith. Most are here because they enjoy the weather and like to track and get something positive out of this experience. You are here to annoy people and it’s pathetic. 

Thanks for this, and I agree.  I think there's some (understandable) disappointment over how things have recently trended or whatever for the upcoming weekend system, but there's a lot to work out on that yet to "despair" too much.  Beyond that time, yes, it looks active for sure.  That all said, I do have to say it's kind of a bit unnerving to see the MJO forecast go back into phase 5/6.  Previously I think it was just rotating into the COD.  But at any rate, maybe that doesn't matter as much...honestly, I'm not all that up on when the MJO is really a "big" factor vs. not.  Some years, that's all you hear about, others, I never even see a plot and it's never mentioned.

25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Fully expecting a lot of mix along 95 but the TPV is the wildcard with how much frozen vs wet we see.  Who’s starting the thread? Lol

Same here.  I fully expect that at this point.  My only hope is that it's more like a decent snow to a mix with ice/sleet, rather than transition to all rain...and perhaps then back to snow for awhile as the really cold air pours in.  Lots to work out, it will be an interesting week for sure!

12 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

 

Gonna need a bigger ruler!

Final count...11.0" at 9PM.  Still some very light snow falling, but it's pretty well over.  Great event!

Just now, wxtrix said:

i believe the phrase is “puking snow”: 

 

Indeed that would be!  Nice!

3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Get real, Real, everybody knows that DCA always inflates their snowfall amounts

More like deflate-gate!  (sorry, New England fans, the jokes on that never get old...)

3 hours ago, supernovasky said:

Well my team is getting embarassed. 

Well, they pulled it out...I thought it might be a tough game and a close one.  Congrats, and best of luck in the NFC finals next weekend!  (My wife is from the New Orleans area, by the way...I remember the Super Bowl hype when they won it all in 2010.  Funny...we were just digging out of Snowmageddon the day of that very Super Bowl game!!  Can we have history repeat this year??? )

ETA...And as a Purdue grad, I've got to root for Drew Brees!

Just think...only a few days ago, we were thinking a couple of inches would be a win here at this point, as a prelude to what many are thinking could be an awesome pattern we'll be heading into.

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro nailed the band out there. Underdid qpf but placement was perfect. 

Euro well with qpf leading in. Was showing .65 iad/.70 dca/.50 bwi (going off memory). Not bad at all.

Yup, I think that is what the Euro was showing for this event yesterday.  Wasn't it also calling for an additional 0.25-0.30 or there about from 1PM onward (in today's 12Z run...maybe that's what you mean about the band)?

(ETA:  So maybe...if the Euro kind of led the way on this one for QPF, it may well be correct with that crazy 1"+ of ice next weekend! )

Hit the 10.0" mark a short while ago when I last measured!  Still coming down but lighter.  Incredible finish to this event, I got nearly 4" since about 3:30PM.  Outside the Jan. 2016 blizzard (which is in a totally different class), this is easily the largest snowfall since Feb. 2014 in terms of accumulation at least.  And this one, unlike Feb. 2014, didn't involve a period of slop for part of it.

Here's a recent photo from this evening (thank goodness for image stabilized lenses! )...

This last surge late this afternoon and evening so far has pushed my total to 9.0".  Still snowing too at a good clip. 

@Bob Chill thanks, appreciate your input as always. I know this is not going to be totally clear until at least mid-week. Hope my questions didn't sound too weenieish, obviously not expecting anyone to have a set answer right now. But man, it sure does look like a major event of some type either way. Trying to recall last time I saw so many wild jaw dropping solutions being offered by the models like this. Maybe the Jan. 2016 blizzard (different scenario there of course).  Wild ride coming up this week for sure and beyond that too!

Great event last night and today, much needed! 

Just now, supernovasky said:

Ripping dendrites in Germantown, what is going on here? I thought this event was over and I missed it while being sick last night. Totally gonna get more accums out of this!

Nice!  Hope this storm makes up for you being sick at least somewhat (those noroviruses are awful!!).

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

What a weenie eps run. Next weekend shifting towards more wet or ice than snow but it just keeps going with cold and snow chances beyond. D15 h5 panel is epic. Sleep will be optional for the next 2 if not 6 weeks.

That's awesome news, Bob!  And hey, I think after almost nothing around here since the Jan. 2016 blizzard, we've all amassed quite the surplus of sleep.  Time to crack into that and have many late nights or all-nighters!!

Concerning next weekend, I've been keeping a distant eye on it but getting more intrigued now that we're closing out the current event.  Like you and others have suggested, it likely does not look like a good setup for all snow around here.  Question for you...what are your thoughts on the idea of transitioning from some kind of snow to ice/sleet at this point in time?  I don't mean that to sound like a loaded or unfair question, as it's a week out (LOL!!), of course.  But this is a very interesting situation setting up.  I know that the ridiculous inch-plus ice that the Euro was showing is highly likely to be way overdone.  But there have been some unreal crazy model solutions showing up in the past couple of days showing outrageous snow amounts here or outrageous icing sandwiched between pretty good snows before and after.  Mainly, I think we're all hoping to avoid an all rain or nearly all rain scenario.  I can envision the snow/ice/snow progression, followed by very cold right after.  The thing that makes this quite interesting is the Arctic push coming in right around when the storm occurs.  Some output has indicated a frontal/low passage with another wave forming soon after the cold air rushes in here.

In any event, we've got a lot to cover this upcoming week for sure.  And I think even if next weekend is "meh" or mostly rainy (hopefully not, though!), there will be several other opportunities nearly right after that.  Either way, I think people need to realize that next weekend won't be perfect for us and to not expect 40" of snow or whatever.

Nice big flakes coming down now at a good clip, for the past half hour or there about.  Looks like areas that had been cleared and shoveled are getting covered again.  Will have to measure sometime a bit later.  Thus far, have 7.0" total for this storm where I'm at (as of about noon).