Scarlet Pimpernel
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Posts posted by Scarlet Pimpernel
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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
It's only frustrating because for our area the winter didn't live up to expectations. I didn't hear anyone complaining in 2014 when most expected a mediocre at best winter and it was snowing constantly from early December to April.
True enough...and it's not only our area that has been frustrated or disappointed this year. While nobody was complaining in 2013-14 of course, what was the guidance like then? Not the signals that long-rangers looked at early on which may have indicated that year would be mediocre...but as time went on through the winter. I honestly don't recall how the models did then in either the short or medium range then.
I think perhaps the most frustrating thing this year is that the guidance consistently has shown very good looks in the medium range, only to gradually fall apart. And other signals such as the MJO even were indicated to go into favorable phases, but the response has been less than desirable, apparently. And it wasn't just one model going wild with good looks, it was mostly across the board. Very difficult year in that regard, it almost makes one want to throw up your hands in even attempting to estimate the week 2 period. As you were asking the other day (don't know if anyone had an answer yet?), what the heck is causing the inconsistent response to what should be highly favorable MJO phases in the east?
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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:
Yep went well. Thanks. I posted about it yesterday. Getting there was an adventure. He is doing good.
Hey PSU...glad to hear everything went well, especially dealing with the road conditions on top of that! Hope your son recovers well.
Somehow, I think as parents it's almost harder on us, LOL! I remember when my daughter had to get her tonsils out several years ago, she was 6 years old and had gotten strep several times up to that point. Though I knew things would be fine (and they were), it made me feel awful for someone that age have to go through that...nerve-wracking for sure!
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25 minutes ago, osfan24 said:
Hour 384 is my favorite. If it was always hour 384, we would live in a snow globe.
Somehow reminds me of a sign on the door of a bar when I was in college...it said, "at 2AM, everyone looks good!" Same idea, perhaps!!
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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
Fringed!!
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46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:
Also, we don't get a lot of warning level snow here in the last week of Feb. There are some scattered occurrences, but they are rare!
This is true of any week in any winter, really. That certain time periods have more snow events compared to others is somewhat due to chance, somewhat also due to actual climatological factors I suppose. But that doesn't preclude any time between December and March. I remember in 2016, there was some discussion that we've had really good snows in early and late January, but none really around the 3rd week (maybe due to the fact that's the climatologically coldest time of year, and tends to be drier on average). Then we got the blizzard with 20"+ on the Jan. 22-23. Irony at its finest!
I've been here since summer of 2001. Never saw a decent March snow at all until 2009. Then we got on a relative March heater with an event in late March 2013, three solid events in 2014, another in early March 2015, and yet another in both 2017 and 2018 (those two took a bit of the edge off a couple of crap winters, too). Heck, I saw good snow on my birthday (on the 25th) in back-to-back years in 2013 and 2014. In fact, I'd almost argue that I've seen more snow events in March than December since I've lived here...though of course one of those December ones was a HECS in 2009!
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Ji is the anti-Jebman. Pessimism and optimism. Yin and Yang. Gotta have one with the other and all that in order to maintain balance in the universe.
Thus endeth the zen lesson for today, grasshoppers! Remember, snow is just a state of mind...ahh, who the hell am I kidding!
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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:
i think the totals are a result of how quickly the storm is in/out. with these temps we might actually fair better with short duration, good rates, than a long drawn out light, occasional moderate.
It's basically 6-8 hours it appears, with about 0.40-0.50" QPF looking at DC area.
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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Those precip type plots use the average temperature over the period to estimate precip type, but if during the heavy thump temps are isothermal and just cold enough, which is what those maps hint at to me, it would be a mostly heavy snow thump to lighter freezing rain. There was a storm in Feb 2007 with a similar temp/precip profile and I think the same happened. It was warmer at the surface so I don't think heavy freezing rain was the concern but people didnt expect a big thump of snow but the heavy precip along the temperature boundary created enough cooling to keep the area mostly snow until the heavy precip moved out. I could be wrong but that was the look imo.
I remember that storm, in fact it was Feb. 25, 2007. And you're correct, it was an unexpected heavy thump of snow over several hours, on the order of 5-6" in fact. Forecasts I think were calling for mostly ice and sleet, but we got a paste job. The surface temperature was right around freezing with an isothermal profile I seem to recall hearing. When the precip came to an end, we were just above freezing and got some light drizzle for awhile after the heavy snow. Quite a neat event!
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23 minutes ago, kurtstack said:
February 29th 2024. Serious question though, we have a feb 29 coming up in 2020. Have we ever had snow on Feb 29?
Don't know about Feb. 29 itself, but I do recall a couple of beginning of March events on either the 1st or 2nd there about, recently (2009, 2014 come to mind, neither of which was a leap year).
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2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:
It's all relative. We can go all month (or all winter) with no more than an inch of snow and then we see a snow map with 20". So when it puts out a reasonable 3-6", we all freak that winter is canceled. We all could use a dose of Lithium during the winter. Except you, of course. Always chill.
Can we prescribe a ton of Valium for Ji and tell him to call back later next week?
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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
You know it's getting tense in here when we're drilling down into the fine details of the most inaccurate snow maps ever designed.
Haha very true! Admittedly maybe I got a bit caught up in that but mostly to respond to some of the more hyperventilating type of posts as to whether amounts were decreasing or not. Like I said, what the heck happened in here since this afternoon, when we have 3 possible threats currently on the table!
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32 minutes ago, osfan24 said:
It's from multiple events over the next 2 1/2 weeks though. There were some solutions in there hinting at 3 plus feet previously. Most of those are in the 18 inch range and almost half of that is probably the mixed slop for the middle of next week. One thing I do find odd is that almost every member has the same general idea. That's really unusual.
I don't recall 3 foot plus amounts from any GEFS member in this region but whatever, doesn't matter. A lot have been a foot or more. Fact is, average snow for the entire month of February is about 6-7" for DC-Balt. For the mean to show double that over the next 2 weeks to the end of the month...with many members showing even more...is quite a signal and enough to raise eyebrows. It could come to not much of anything in the end of course, but both the GEFS and EPS have been hitting the next couple weeks pretty hard. Don't get too caught up on exact amounts shown on those individual member maps, look at the overall signal.
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12 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:
Must be the new math they are teaching these days.
You mean NAM math, right?!
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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Yea, 18z gefs is only loaded with weak sauce 1-2' solutions. I guess we'll just have to be fine with that.
LOL, I know, right?! My first thought on the "losing the heavy hitters" comment was...dafuq? All caveats with the snow maps aside and looking at it from a general perspective, GEFS still has 18 of 21 members that give DC/Balt/I95 region over 6". And several of those are quite a bit more than that. The mean is about a foot or so and this has been the case I think for a few runs now. Again not taking literally and of course there's no guarantee, but right now that's a helluva signal through the last week of February. I also like how the "gradient" into the higher amounts is pushed a bit east it appears.
I don't know what the heck has happened in this thread or the other one covering this weekend specifically, but I swear a lot of the commentary suddenly went downhill even with us staring at the possibility of 3 events in the next 7-10 days! Crickey!
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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
I'll text you pictures anyway. Just hope it's snowing so you can see me shirtless in a speedo holding a cute bunny instead of no snow and me still shirtless but wearing jeans overalls by a tree stump holding a machete.
Just watch out for those vicious, cute bunnies!!
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@Bob Chill...Yeah, the 2nd low on Sunday is weaker and as you say we have CAD in place behind the previous system (closely spaced). Also, check the 10m winds, they are easterly to slightly north of east as that low treks by, and then reforms off the coast. They never go southeast or southerly. And they are pretty light.
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13 minutes ago, frd said:
Can't recall if it was something you, or perhaps PSU, posted about his study...something about a weak stratospheric Polar vortex somehow mitigates phase 8 to not being as favorable (and you'd need to be more in phase 1)? I may not be remembering this totally correctly, and I have no idea of the merit of that study. Also, what is "ECMF"? Is that the Euro, or some other related model?
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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Lots of good options
Holy Jaysus! LOL! I know those snow maps are not the greatest to use, but 16/21 (including the control) give the DC and I-95 corridor >6", and most of those are big hits. Weenie, indeed.
On a more serious note, I'd be curious how much of this is after next weekend (which apparently the ensembles don't support?)...I'd take it nearly all? And how much includes the other potential mid-week next week?
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4 minutes ago, Jandurin said:
alabama deserves that 37 inches more than we do
Even Clemson didn't beat them by that much!
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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
The changes next weekend were better for creating a threat there but worse for next week. A convoluted split weaker system next weekend could pop a low under us and snow but it will not set up as much of a suppressive flow behind it for the wave next week. So we paid Peter by robbing Paul on that one. It is possible with just the right balance to pull off back to back hits. It’s also possible with the wrong balance to end up failing totally. A bombing cutter next weekend increased chances after it. I’m not complaining or debbing, maybe we end up getting some snow from both, and if they fail it’s not the last chance imo. Just saying the weaker south trend next weekend degraded the threat next week some.
I’m convinced “the look” is finally coming. Pac is finally getting its act together wrt the forcing we “expected” all winter. Better late than never I guess. I also expect we jump to it faster than guidance thinks. We are seeing that trend now.
The next 2 weeks are the transition. During that time I expect numerous waves along the boundary that will be shifting east in the means but not in a continuous progression, so rain is a threat during any flexing of the se ridge or over amplified systems but overall I will be surprised if we make it through the next 14 days without getting clipped by one of these waves.
After that I think things slow down but we enter the big game preserves and go HECS hunting to finish the season. Of course it doesn’t have to be a hecs, not every coastal goes just right, but the idea the tail end of Feb into March will be eastern trough with blocking and hope for amplification up the coast.
That’s how this pattern progression plays out in my mind. But even if I’m right that doesn’t guarantee us snow. We could get unlucky with waves missing in all directions then maybe after one storm gets suppressed and another bombs late and we somehow get skunked...but I really don’t find that the most likely end. If anything I think it’s more likely we get more than one warning event than none. We will see. Landing gear is down. We’re coming in for final approach. Gonna be a bumpy landing to this one!
Good discussion and I don't really think you're "debbing" by expressing worthwhile caution. But overall, gotta like the looks coming up!
As for final approach and bumpy landings, let's hope it's nothing like "Airplane (is that Ji in the airport tower removing the plug???):
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3 minutes ago, frd said:
Up next is to see whether the mean snowfall trends on the EPS continue to improve or take a step back.
As for the ice on the Euro without question could trend colder and be all snow. But I prefer no ice storm.
Perception and damage wise a significant ice storm leaves a nasty memory about the winter being possibly worse than it was. However I can see why because they are dangerous to both person and property. I dont want to spend 1500 right now on my scott pine to take her down.
I doubt we see that kind of ice in the end that the Euro depicts, but that was some impressive "digital ice" to be sure! My main take-away is that there is a storm with a fair bit of moisture, and plenty of at least low-level cold air nearby.
I was in a bad ice storm in Atlanta years ago...around Jan. 2000 as I recall. And yeah, pine trees and ice are a bad combo. The oaks and maples, etc. were generally fine but all the pines and magnolia trees got shredded in that event. Large magnolia leaves plus 1/4-1/2" ice equals disaster for that tree.
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Just now, pasnownut said:
As the new regime is just starting to take shape, i'd personally not get to wrapped up in finer details yet. Euro just gave a major change to med range guidance. I'd track the storm for now, and by Wed/Thurs start figuring out R/S line.
I know...and I'm certainly not wrapped up in fine details like that (though perhaps that post sounded as if I were!). Mostly was just taken aback by that crazy ZR plot Bob showed, gotta admit that was rather incredible even if silly to consider right now! And yes, there were some serious changes.
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Just now, Bob Chill said:
One thing I can predict with 100% accuracy every single winter is Ji will NEVER break character... ever.. lalalockitup
The MJ(i)O is always spot-on in it's forecast, that's for sure! It never fails.
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Just now, WxUSAF said:
Going to be cool to have 2 snow events in the middle of our week of torch/abandon all hope/winter cancel/omgnevergonnasnowagain
When I first read this quickly, I thought for some reason it said "omgnosnowmageddon"...or something like that!
PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Cassandra!!! (For those who like Greek mythology)
But seriously, I do recall some of that discussion on whether the weekend system(s) trending weaker might actually be detrimental to the mid-week system, i.e., not providing something to hold the high in. I'm kind of out for this weekend, beyond maybe seeing a bit of snow TV (if that?), and have come to terms with that. But the entire medium range has just turned out all wrong for us. Oh well...maybe it really is the weather being the weather despite all the prior positive indications. Very frustrating though. Hard to believe a couple days ago we were looking at upwards of 3 possible events, and now...well, it's like being sold a bill of goods!