Scarlet Pimpernel

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Nice.  Looks like 18 that give the DC metro at least 6", and several of those are big ones.  Only a couple or a small handful under 2".

53 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Chuck, Bizzaro Superman says Up Shut. 

To be truly bizzarro, should that be "Chuck up, Shut!"

(ETA:  Yeah, just realized I guess I said exactly the same thing you did in a way!)

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just popping in to say although my winter of unmitigated disaster continues, I’m pulling for all your backyards.

May you bask in the glory of cold powder this weekend. 

Also I swear, if you get a good snowfall and find a way to whine I will bury you. 

Better go find Ji then!!  Even if you already buried him before winter even started (zombie?)!

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That's ensemble MEAN just in that time window!?!

Yeah, I had to do a double-take on that map and realized it's the GEFS mean and not the ops deterministic...can't believe that's the mean in that time frame!

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

 

Ha!  Well, actually I just drink because I feel like it!!

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

You have no idea. I have 3. It’s like herding cats at night. Kids suddenly get energy at 9:05pm. Is it illegal to tranquilize children?

I don't know about that...but it sure is legal for me to tranquilize myself with a couple glasses of wine!!! 

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

what do the nogaps, ngm, eta, and avn have to say?

Don't forget the Brazillian!

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

Lucky. Home now and it’s a mad dash to get her butt in bed


.

 

Wait until she's a bit older and they take their jolly time to finish a shower and get ready for bed before 10:30!!   I mean really, how the hell long does it have to take??

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

@Bob Chill last Tuesday

 

@Bob Chill today

I think Bob was trolling the month of January on purpose the other week, with his Debbie downer act and nearly getting reaped in the Panic Room!!

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I Would be pretty bent if I had gone 3 weeks without pay and no end in sight. 

Yup, indeed.  I'm one of the "non-essential" employees myself, and it does suck feeling totally useless through this time.  Yeah, I know we'll get back-paid eventually when this is over, but until then it's not easy.  I can especially empathize with those who are "essential" and are still required to show up and work (most especially shift work!) and won't get paid until it's over either.  That's a double slap in the face right there.  And I can only imagine how difficult it is for someone who's on like a GS-7 or 9 salary in the metro DC area.  Geez!

(ETA:  And it's been in the back of my mind just how much work there will be to catch up on when we do return to work.  That's a sort of hidden loss right there.  A lot of people in that same boat.  It's not like coming back when you've been on regular leave for awhile where someone was covering for you...*nobody* is around during this time, so everyone starts back immediately having to make up the lost time.)

49 minutes ago, mappy said:

First night of my kid’s new gymnastics class. 730-830 is the pits

I hear you.  Not the greatest time, smack-dab in the middle of the evening.  When my daughter was taking ballet (for many years) in the Washington School of Ballet, her classes as they got to higher levels were like 6:30-8:30 four days a week.  At least it wasn't too far from where we live, but made it tricky for getting back home, (early) dinner for her, then getting out of here in time.  And not being home until after 9PM those days.  I was always making sure she got her school stuff done early.  When the company did "Nutcracker" (which she did a few years), the rehearsals and performance schedule for each cast was likewise quite regimented as you might expect.  Strangely though, that was actually fun even having to shuttle her back and forth from the Warner Theatre for each performance.

48 minutes ago, Scraff said:

The Euro. We abscond. 

It definitely blood-sucking-insected its way a bit farther north for us. 

Summing up today's 12Z Euro discussion for the possible event this weekend...

3 minutes ago, RDM said:

You get my vote H2O.  Oh wait, the mention of "vote" could be construed as having political connotations....    But seriously, I fully agree. 

Just remember, change the letters around in vote, and you have a "VETO"!!! 

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

6z op GFS is bad solely because the northern stream s/w is out ahead of the storm and acts to suppress it rather than behind it where it amplifies it.  6z FV3 is still behind the storm and that's why it's still a major hit.  

Hard to ignore the Euro being so consistent though, especially when there are more reasons than usual to suspect the GFS.  Still, I can't recall seeing a broad area of precipitation in IL/KY/IN that just evaporates when it gets to us if it's supported by a southern stream s/w and low pressure.  

Yeah, disconcerting that the Euro is still so suppressed while the GFS has gone a bit back-and-forth.  If there were a trend or change in that to something even approaching what last night's 00Z GFS/GFS-FV3 showed (and even the CMC), that would help.  But you cannot ignore the signal in the Euro and then the 06Z GFS kind of following suit.  I haven't seen precip maps from the Euro, but that is interesting what you mention about it "evaporating" precip over the midwest before it gets here like that.

9 minutes ago, anotherman said:

It's not even allowed in banter?  If we just avoid talking about our problems as a country they will continue to get worse.

Didn't there used to be a "political roundtable" forum?  Does that even exist anymore?  I ventured in there a couple of times in the past, but I think it requires a separate account/login beyond your AmWX one to post anything.  I've been in there before, never really commented but did read some.  It was interesting, but man, did it get crazy and out of hand at times...even for opinions and views I agree with!

Agree to an extent that sure, banter would be the most appropriate place for some political discussion, but wouldn't want it to devolve into ugly arguments in any direction.  Fine line, and perhaps a slippery slope as Mappy alluded to above.

4 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Just an observation but it seems like politics is starting to sneak into the conversations. Nothing too blatant at this point but it is just a matter of time. Do what you all want but I myself would prefer not to see the boards go all to hell during what looks to be a very promising period moving in. God knows we are dealing with the political divisions within this country 24/7 already so I would like a place to escape to where we can all be friends and enjoy a common shared passion. Just my 2 cents worth.

I haven't really notice overt political comments in the discussions here, but I agree with you.  I've certainly got my own very definite opinions on...how to word it diplomatically?..."current events", but I do try to separate that from discussions on this weather forum.  Maybe a light comment here or there if it's relevant or for some humor, but even here in the banter thread, I normally try not to get into political opinions that much.  (OK, "political" opinions on the Alabama-Clemson game last night don't count!! )

As others have already alluded to, I think some of the politics creeping in lately is due to the shutdown and any impacts that may have on forecasts or the models as the shutdown continues.  Hopefully we can all just keep it to the weather.  If we can get a solid event that doesn't evaporate (ahem...this weekend...ahem!), that would probably keep most political commentary at bay!

Wow...when's the last time Alabama gave up that many points?  They're lucky Clemson didn't just go for 50 total, and instead ran out the clock on the last play.

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Fv3 is a good hit. A 1-2 punch. Might be double digits in dc. Lol

Is it doing the same thing, i.e., weird interaction with the NS digging down through Ohio?  Or is it keeping the main SS low stronger?

(ETA:  sorry, kind of slow going on TT right now, haven't seen it out that far yet).

Just now, yoda said:

Seeing Alabama being taken behind the woodshed and destroyed makes me happy 

Amen!  As I said, my mantra is "ABB" (anybody but 'Bama!)!  I am honestly surprised how badly Clemson is trashing them right now.  I expected a high scoring game from these teams, but either team leading by 28 points in the 4th quarter?  Didn't count on that.

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cmc looks just like the gfs. Lol

5 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I mean the CMC did just one up the GFS

LMAO...dumps over a foot area-wide!  Can only hope it's right!  Go Canucks! 

In the mid-upper 20s throughout Sunday too...not bad.

Well, that was a rather...interesting...development that somehow worked!  Wouldn't have thought that NS shortwave coming down from the Lakes area would save the day like that.  That thing really dug a lot more, made all the difference.

46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Please see my above reply..., Also...there was someone else who messaged me earlier today who said he hesitated to ask questions on here because some people could be jerks about answering. And that shouldn't be...there is absolutely nothing wrong with asking questions and exploring all kinds of scenarios. So yes, I want to learn why it does and doesn't snow here because I love it just like the rest of you! Does my weenieish worrying drive me to look for some of those answers? Yes. But even so, many of the questions I ask are specific. (I know I was a bit off the rails last month, but I've moved pass that!)

Thank you to the posters who actually have taken the time to answer my questions--I learn a lot from you guys.

I get that...and can tell from at least some of your questions you're trying to just get answers about various things.  Fair enough, and you'll certainly learn a ton from some very good posters on here.  But yeah, try not to stress out too overly much on how we can fail around here.  The number of ways we can do that are legion, haha!  And I say that as someone who always worries with nearly every event (as I'm sure most everyone else does here!).  At least until it's actually occurring or all but in the bag.  The key, I think, is to perhaps keep a lot of that to yourself and maybe not blurt out every fear/worry/concern out here in the forum (except perhaps the Panic Room, of course...or if you're obviously trolling to be humorous!).  Now, I'm not saying that to sound flippant or rude toward you...I'm honestly trying to help.  There are plenty of times I just about want to bang my head on the desk with frustration when things go wrong or just plain suck.  But whatever...in the end it's just the weather, really.  So why destroy a good keyboard over that?! 

It took me awhile to realize how winter is in this region (moved here in 2001), and that the "average" snowfall is pretty well meaningless; the standard deviation around that is large.  You either get hammered or you get almost nothing most of the time.  To give some perspective, the seasonal mean is equivalent to a single decent KU event.  I grew up in northeast OH, where the deviation from year to year is a lot smaller so the average meas a lot more (and is also obviously higher than it is here).

Sorry for the off-topic banter, but hope this helps!

Though I really don't have a dog in the fight for tonight's CFP championship game per se, my default college football motto is "Anybody but 'Bama!!"

So I guess that means Go Clemson!