Scarlet Pimpernel

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think we need to stop focusing on getting the PERFECT pattern and look at what works in a Nina.  We likely are not getting a picture perfect pacific pattern.  Nor do we need the ABSOLUTE perfect block to get a snowstorm.  We do if we want a HECS.  But we likely aren't getting a 20" HECS storm either...there has only been 1 of those (1996) EVER in a Nina going back to 1900!  But we have had plenty of warning level snowfalls in a Nina.  This is the composite of 6 of the best Nina snowstorms since 1950 between Dec 15 and Jan 30 at BWI.  I left off really early and after Feb 1 storms because our snow climo wrt what works is slightly different very early and later in the season.  So these are good "models" for what works this time of year in a nina.  All of these were warning 5"+ events at BWI and some of them were very nice ~10" events in our area.  

Here is what I take away from that look, and what has worked in past Nina's to get snow.  Notice that trough in and around AK.  No that is not ideal but its acting to suppress the pacific ridge associated with a Nina.  In that regards...its actually helping more then its hurting assuming it stays centered WEST of AK.  If it shifts east too much its a problem and we get flooded with pac puke.  Centered west of AK and it damages the thermal profile of the CONUS yes but its not fatal.  There can be just enough trough into the east to get domestic polar air into the northeast.  It is what it is...you lose that trough there and the central PAC ridge goes APE and its all over...you get a trough in the NW and ridge out in the east.  The -NAO is critical to this because it helps retrograde that trough out of western North America just enough to make this workable.  Lose the -AO/NAO and the Nina PAC ridge can exert itself and that trough in AK shifts east into NW NAM and its last year all over!  Notice also the NAO is centered east of ideal there.  But what is critical to get that to work is to have SOME extension of the ridge west towards Hudson Bay.   But...that said...there are some analogs in there where the NAO blocking is centered pretty far east (2000 is one recent example) and still managed to work out.   There are also numerous other decent snowfalls...advisory in the city and warning NW that I didn't bother to include but that show a similar picture in terms of how to get snow in a Nina and what typically works.  

Lovely alliteration there, intentional or not (picture perfect pacific pattern)!!

At any rate, good discussion of how we can get decent moderate events, if one is not so hung up on HECS chasing.

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Ha, well I don't know who was saying that about the 3rd week of January...because if you look at our history that around the time when the money period starts!  But yes, as WSW breakthrough would be nice!

When it became apparent that there was something very possible around that time in Jan. 2016, I vaguely recall some discussion that for whatever reason those middle 2 weeks (or there about) of January had a relative lack of good snow events.

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure I wanna get sucked into this "potential"... Last week of December is a historically bad time for us to get good snow (more than a couple inches). If you look at our snow history...I don't recall seeing any dates between Dec 26th and Jan. 9th where we got WSW level stuff at BWI/DCA (anybody got any record on that?) I'm not sure whether it's just coincidence or what...but for some reason we don't seem to get warning level snows during that time period. Would love for this trend to suddenly break this year though...It's 2020, so why not? Lol

Well, that may be true about the last week or so of December, climatologically.  But then again, people said kinda the same thing about the 3rd week of January, that we never get any good snows around that time.  Then there was some kind of event...oh...sometime about Jan. 22-23, 2016 I seem to recall?? 

I'm just joking with you, of course, for fun!

Not saying a Jan. 2016 redux should be expected or will occur (but we'd take that!), but maybe we can crack through the dearth of WSW snows the last week of December!

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Yes that could change but I think we need to see it move that way in the next 24 hours. We’re getting to that range where the globals have been picking up on the general synoptic setups. We’re right at the lead time where the primary shifted south on guidance opening up the opportunity last week.   I’m not sold on any solution yet. But it looks like there are possibly 4 waves between Dec 28-Jan 5 with blocking setup. They will all affect one another. Spacing and if they amplify into the 50/50 space.  I don’t have a strong feel for how the specifics play out but I do think we would be incredibly unlucky to come out of that period without one decent snowfall. We can pick on the minor imperfections but fact is the look is plenty good enough to snow. Excellent AO/NAO. Strong STJ. Mediocre PAC. That should be good enough to get some snow imo. 

Very true, and thanks for pointing this out.  It's definitely one of the better setups we've had in some time it seems (though I won't say "since '96" or any other particular year, hahaha!).   It will be complicated, the interaction of the various waves during that period, and not necessarily "ideal" (whatever that might be).  So yeah, hopefully we'll come out of that time frame with at least one decent snow and avoid the incredible bad luck of getting shut out!

Just now, BristowWx said:

Yo...yoose...yo sausage scrapple munchers...pretty much anything else 

FYP!  (for the record, I just cannot bring myself to eat the stuff!)

2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Y’all are setting yourselves up for failure comparing everything to 96. That was a great 6z run on the gfs. Probably the best look yet for dc/philly. Kind of want the first post Christmas storm to blow up now. Even if it’s rain could serve as 50/50. The storminess is relentless it seems and we have blocking. There’s just no way we don’t cash eventually (we’ll I guess there is lol), but it could be 10000x worst. 

Well, I don't think anyone here is seriously comparing stuff to '96...mostly commenting on DT's "best pattern since '96" remark, and mostly mocking it, from what I've read in here.  At any rate...yes...cannot argue with how active it looks post-Christmas, that's for sure!  And the pattern up-top might be at least somewhat conducive for something good in that time frame (even if the Pac is "meh").  Let's hope so!

Just now, BristowWx said:

I’m just trying to wrap my head around a Philly guy saying Y’all.  

Shouldn't it be "Yo!!"?? 

6 hours ago, GATECH said:

@Always in Zugzwang Yep, grew up in Atlanta, went to Colorado to study Meteorology, but the school stunk, literally, U. Of N. Colorado in Greeley, if the winds blew from the east, we got the stench of the cattle feed lots, LOL.  still have my laminated skew-T chart somewhere.Transferred to GT and studied International affairs, undergrad and Grad.  Graduated grad school in 98, then moved up here.   Loved my time at GT and growing up in the Atlanta area, but was ready for a change.  Totally agree, if you know the cool places and little nieghborhoods, it’s lots of fun.  Use to hang out a lot at that Bar/Restaurant at Piedmont park back then.

That was Tuck, picture is from the end of the storm after 20in.  He was standing and was just kinda stuck.  Have a lab now, named ‘Thunder’ lol.  He has never seen snow, can’t wait for that to happen!
 

 

 

 

 

Cool!  Our time there at GT may have even overlapped it appears (completed my Ph.D. in 1999, was in the area from 1994-2001).  I think I know that bar/restaurant you're referring to right on Piedmont Park, but offhand cannot recall the name.  Probably changed hands since then anyhow.  I used to live close to that shopping plaza near the corner of Monroe and 8th St., some interesting places there at the time.  Also liked the Virginia Highlands area.  I haven't been back  in many years (too long, I should visit again!), but still have a couple of friends I'm in touch with regularly.  We used to get some damn fine martinis over at the Highland Tap (in the VA Highlands area)!

12 hours ago, GATECH said:

Happy Anniversary @mappy!  Dec 19 was one of my favorite DC snowstorms, seen them all since 1998 when I moved to DC, something about a Blizzard just before Christmas was magical though!  Plus I was hammered Blizzard eve at my work Christmas party, stumbling home as it was starting...and yes the snow was up to my Golden’s eyeballs that evening!

Great screen-capture of that!  I saved a bunch of stuff from all those storms that winter, mostly model data.

Cute dog, by the way!  Hard to tell if he's playing, or lying there comfortably thinking "now *this* makes a nice bed!!"

BTW, was curious and meaning to ask when you were at GA Tech (going by your name here!)?  I went to grad school there, long ago last century in the late '90s, and continued living in the Atlanta area afterward until 2001 when I moved up this way.  Really liked Atlanta for the most part, to be honest!  I've told people that it's not exactly what one would call a "tourist town", but if you live there, you know the places to go!  Ran the Peachtree a few times, too (could never do that again now, haha!)...nice to have it finish practically right in my back yard when I was living near Piedmont Park!  Alas, all my fine Peachtree T-shirts are now gone, having worn out some time ago!  Might still have one of those long-sleeve ones from the GT 5K run around campus that they had every November.

Happy Anniversary to you, @mappy!! 

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Can’t avoid the 60F+ Xmas eve. It’s happening.

It's like a tradition around here!!

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

For being a Nina, sure are seeing a fair amount of STJ disturbances moving across in the LR.

Shhhhh!  Don't tell the ENSO that, might jinx it!! 

3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

I’m no expert, but we like the trend in tilt on the GFS for Christmas Eve, no? 

In general, I think this is the case.  At risk of over-analyzing something that's still a week out (but I'll do so anyhow, haha!)...note that at 06Z today there was more energy hanging back, which resulted in the surface reflection still coming up toward us just after the strong cold front passed.  It's not quite "as good" at 12Z as the low zips on to the north, but there's apparently a ton of lift along the front and (if you take verbatim), still gives a decent burst of snow.  Reminiscent of Feb. 14, 2015 as others have said, though perhaps on a more dramatic scale if this pans out as shown.

Regardless, that's one hella cold front breezing through!

4 hours ago, yoda said:

Clouded the future is... but 06z GFS... strong in the Force  Farce it is

 

FYP!! 

But seriously, that would be quite nice if it happens!  At this point, I'll be glad to even have a nice, crisp Christmas rather than being in the 50s or raining or whatever, for a change.  At least a little fresh wintry feel even if there's not much snow.

13 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Really enjoyed having to shovel this morning. Best driveway walls I have had since 2016. Meanwhile check out this from Upstate NY. Holy crush job!

 

Wow, that's a shite-ton of snow.  Gorgeous!  I heard the reports from Binghamton, NY...just unreal.  What we wouldn't give for that here...

I admit my initial thought upon seeing this photo was someone inside the house saying, "OK, very funny, who the hell dumped all this popcorn on my doorstep!!"

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

November 2018...

I remember that, too.

Was the March 2015 event (6.5" where I'm at, general 4-8" area-wide) also a case of a low forming along a cold front?  Front went through in the early morning I recall, and a decent wave moved up shortly after during the day.  Or that's how I recall how that evolved.  I sort of remember @Deck Pic telling people beforehand to not freak out when they woke up in the morning and it's not snowing yet, because there was going to be a "lull" between the front going through and the main show.  And like clockwork of course, people freaked out early that morning when nothing was happening.  And sure enough, it began snowing like crazy starting around 9AM.

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

one tiny problem

The JMA 850mb 0C line is *just* a bit outside!

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

WSWatches or WWAs on Xmas eve....tough to beat that kind of magic

We did have that, for The Storm Which Shall Not Be Named (*ahem*  Dec. 2010  *ahem*).  Ducking for cover!

Ooops... 'd by @mappy, sorry about that!!

3 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

A huge chunk of this forum will beat their annual total from last year and we're not even into our prime snow climo period.....I call that a HUGE win regardless of what happens with the rest of this storm. Something GOOD to remember about 2020 at least.....

Very true!  Of course, I could piss ice cubes onto sun-scorched blacktop pavement in mid-July and surpass last winter's snow total!!  (Not that I've tried that, LOL!!)

And agree, this event is one of the few bright spots of 2020.  Nice to have something wintry in December!

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Happy 250th birthday to THIS dude...the man, the myth, the legend, and one of the greatest and most influential composers of all time, LUDWIG VAN BEETHOVEN! 

I am so glad it's Beethoven day (make it a holiday )--a perfect remedy for the current snow fail! Listen to some Beethoven today everyone! (Classical WETA 90.9 is playing Beethoven all day today...and I'm lovin' every minute of it!)

Amen!!  I've got the entire suite of his symphonies, Cleveland Orchestra recordings with George Szell as conductor.  Also another copy of the 9th (my favorite), Cleveland Orchestra with Christoph von Dohnanyi.  I was fortunate enough to hear the 9th live two times while in Atlanta in the late '90s, with the Atlanta Symphony.  Once was with a guest conductor (can't recall who at the moment), and the other time was with Yoel Levi (their regular conductor/musical director at the time).  That included the Atlanta Symphony Chorus, still heavily influenced by the great Robert Shaw.

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

I legit laughed out loud at the “Nam would be the new King”

Well...to paraphrase the title of a 1975 movie starring Michael Caine and Sean Connery, maybe that should be "The NAM Who Would Be King"!! 

(Actually "The Man Who Would Be King", a very fine movie by the way!!)

On a lighter note, all this talk of being "obtuse" makes me think of one of my all-time favorite movies, "Shawshank Redemption"...

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

My apologies. Wrong thread.

No apologies needed...I don't think the particular thread you put that in matters all that much.  I knew what you were talking about.  What you mentioned could apply to damn near any event around here to be honest, in terms of model hugging, tossing, etc.  I'll admit myself to being weenie-ish when it comes to snow (we all are to an extent, aren't we?), but I also have to respect the science and reality of what's being shown, even if it's not favorable.

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Dude, they chat about 15-day upper air patterns --- GOOD OR BAD --- in this thread all the time. That is what this thread is for. And everyone understands that it is LONG RANGE and illusory - but if you read through the thread indications of potential periods of blocking or not blocking can be discussed.  You are being deliberately obtuse. 

If you're referring to @ers-wxman1's comment above, he may have intended that for the other thread about this upcoming event.  I don't think he's being "obtuse".

I'd rather have far fewer @Ji-type comments with sarcastic (and whining) posts about how a 240 hour forecast took away his 15" snow or how getting a foot is somehow a fail...and far more @ers-wxman1-type posts that are loaded with useful and informed content, even if a bit jaded at some people's attitudes and occasionally harsh on the reality of marginal setups!

1 minute ago, 40westwx said:

I want you all to be prepared for the greatest succession of model runs in Mid Atlantic snow storm history.. over the next 36 hours we are going to see a slow and steady shift to colder temperatures.. all of you all teetering on the brink will see you 1-3 turn in  to 2-4.. then to 6-8 and then.. the ever important 8-14.  

This shit is happening

@Jebman, is that you??