Scarlet Pimpernel

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Filled out a couple more squares. Might’ve missed an Eskimo Joe “meh.”

 

Wait...when was there a reference to the DGEX for this event???  Don't recall that offhand...fortunately!!

Oh, and by the way, I think the NAM is just where we want it at this range, it's showing a slight improvement! 

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yep that’s what I was thinking.

Of course each one of those stupid shades could be a six inch contour so we could be looking at a range of 0 to 1000”. Who knows. That’s why I love them so much

You get pummeled according to that legend-less map, and there's a hint of the @psuhoffman fringe zone in there too!  (All in fun and joking, PSU, but you know that!!). 

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

As you near an event, the OP and ENS will not diverge as much. 

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Yeah that's the general idea lol. At this range we can still see some differences, but going forward the op runs are where it's at. Probably around this time tomorrow.

That's kind of what I was thinking.  Maybe continue giving ensembles weight up to say, nearly 48 hours before the event (so sometime tomorrow for this event).  Then almost exclusively deterministic thereafter.  At least that's what I've gotten from what most have said over the past couple of years.

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Fixed it for ya pops 

LOL!!!  Well, this helps too...beer goggles for snow!

Just now, PhineasC said:

The easy rule is: purple is good, whitish is really good, and bluish is incredible. 

LOL yeah, I know...typically I look for where the initial lighter purple is and go from there, hahaha!  The green, of course stands out most.  Thanks for walking across my lawn!! 

17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Better than 12z

Throwing this out here randomly (not aimed at you, just using this plot as an example!).  But damn, I never much liked these all-to-subtle color transitions, especially on the snow maps!  My old(er) eyes have a hard time discerning those tight gradient transitions from the light blues to light purples, then darker purples, then pink!!  LOL!!  Now...get off my lawn you damn whipper-snappers, while I get my magnifying glass out!! 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS held serve. Beautiful verbatim, 

12z:

06z:

Looks quite similar, going by the overall "shape" and coverage.  Biggest difference is that the amounts are noticeably bumped up (whatever it's worth, on these maps!)...presumably due to the enhanced CCB at 12Z vs. 06Z?

59 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Yoda is a bot programmed to give pbp for every model run of every model. 

@yoda might possibly reply:  "Mmmmm!  Model pbp or model pbp not!  There is no bot!"

(ETA:  "Mmmmm, poet I am!")

37 minutes ago, yoda said:

Really? Does the rain stay mainly on the plain?  @MN Transplant bad joke there good sir

"Heavens, what a sound!!"

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve only looked at posts this morning so far, but seems the models runs are all bouncing within a certain range and we pretty much know what that is. I81 crowd probably is shellacked in any scenario. I95 crowd probably mixes in every scenario. Eastern shore down to RIC is mostly rain in every scenario (sorry friends). Everything I see suggest almost all of LWX gets a WSW. I’ll also say that I’ll take my sleet and rain Wednesday evening and say “thank you sir may I have another!?” if it means I get the kind of deform band that is being advertised. 

Agree.  This is a very good overall summary.  And I'll also take this opportunity to thank @MillvilleWx for the amazing discussions (even when on mids...not to be confused with meds!!) as well as @MN Transplant, @psuhoffman.  Thanks for keeping it real and civil, regardless of what each model run shows.

With a little luck where I'm at just on the northwest side of the beltway, it will be more sleety than rain through that time later Wednesday afternoon.  I'm intrigued by the after-00Z Wednesday evening into late Wednesday night timeframe as well, if that deform band produces.  Nobody around I-95 should be expecting a foot-plus, but a decent warning-level event seems quite possible.  Which is far more than many of us have gotten in nearly 2 years.

Just now, Scraff said:

King Euro better not rain our snow parade. 

Of all the 3 "main" models, the Euro is perhaps the most iffy, so to speak, for the metro areas and southeast.  But even with that, it's still been a pretty solid hit or better (depending on location of course)...and not far from the GFS and CMC.

Here's how the last couple days of model runs seemed...

--00/12Z GFS:  Total beat-down, pummeling, crushed!

--00/12Z CMC:  Hold my beer...!

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I've traveled in time to Thursday evening and back. Congrats Boston.

You don't have to even travel ahead in time (DeLorean or not!!) to likely be correct on that one! 

2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

The days are getting shorter as we approach the solstice.  So 5 more days is actually less than that!! 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS gets snow in at like 118hrs.  That's Day 4 sucka.  

Just now, H2O said:

I think its safe to say today's model runs will hold for.....checks calendar...5 more days

The days are getting shorter as we approach the solstice.  So 5 more days is actually less than that!! 

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hopefully in a couple of hours, we can also sing "God save the Queen!" when the Euro comes out!!

1 minute ago, H2O said:

I need to get my travelors checks for my next vacation in 2022

Just be aware of the traveler's advisory!!

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

P03 for Monday  blown up for your viewing pleasures 

 

Is that how fuzzy it looks after a few of those beers in @Scraff's fridge??

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

^keanuwhoa.gif

Based on the maps I’ve seen, Eps looks really really nice. Cold and with a more southern transfer to the coast than the Op. Getting tingly. 

OK, I admit...it took me a moment to realize what this said.  At first glance, I thought it might be some kind of Hawaiian way of saying "Holy Sh*t!!"  But I guess the meaning is the same regardless!! 

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

watch our 12 inches all melt on Dec 24th at 11:48pm

<RR> There are medical treatments for that nowadays. </RR> 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey Beethoven...ya know this would end up your 250th birthday right?  (December 16th is the estimated day!)

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s easy to get caught up in the verbatim but you look at the players on the field and there’s no way I’d want a scraper look 6 days out with that blocking in place.

Give me wiggle room if that high is analyzed stronger closer to game time. 

Exactly...essentially what I'm thinking.  And even taking it verbatim with the (silly) snow maps, I take heart in the fact that a couple inches still gets into the cities, with a bit more where I'm at on the northwest side of town.

As has been said, get that primary to transfer sooner, rather than when it's up near the OH River, and a lot of people would be quite happy (with the possible exception of Ji, hahaha!).  I haven't really been looking at this in detail until just the past day or two, but has the transfer of energy trended one way or another over time?

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Interesting to see a non-bombed-out low out bully its way into a high like that with blocking in place.

edit: Good track, though, so I suppose it's more about cold than the block.

Yeah.  More an issue of the primary that's along the Ohio river it seems, messing up the thermals.  As others indicated, if the transfer is quicker, or if the primary doesn't go that far north, that could do it for us.  But not a bad overall look to have a week out.  Will be interesting to see what the ensembles show...

ETA:  You know, even just going with the crazy snow maps (not worth a lot, I know!), about 1-2" snow still manages to get down into the cities and DC area at the end, with obviously much more as you go north and west.  That's 1-2" more than we saw the other day! 

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

 

Also, I have yet to see one snow flurry this year.

Yup...seen lots of flakes, but none of them are of the snow variety! 

40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Coming at Frd for that? Come on, y’all. Weenie la la land is how you end up in one of my padded rooms.

You've got padded rooms in the Panic Room now?  Whoa...that might be a game changer right there!