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Scarlet Pimpernel

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Posts posted by Scarlet Pimpernel

    January Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, nj2va said:

    I just caught up on the "analysis" in the main thread....that was impossible to follow.

    Everyone was all hyped up about the unreal Euro run at 12Z yesterday so now anything looks "bad".  I wonder how the discussion would have gone if the Euro didn't spit out a BECS.  So much mention of a "disaster", but then when you cut through that BS, it's not really that awful at this point, to be honest.  Expectations and all that, I suppose.

    January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

    Were all the models on board with that one 8 days out?  I am trying to remember.  I do remember some sick snow maps.  But still not the Euro 12z 26 Jan...that was next level 

    I distinctly remember checking the discussion and model pbp in here the Saturday afternoon before the storm hit (about 7-8 days out). At that time it was clear a significant storm was in the offing and it seemed like all major models "snapped in place." Thereafter it was a matter of various details... Would it be a top HECS, would we mix for a time etc. But it was clear at least a significant snow event was there. Of course that was a Nino and STJ on roids and a perfectly placed block so the setup was very clear-cut as was the models' handling of that. 

    ETA: @Deck Pic pretty well stated it, especially concerning the Euro. I thought the GFS/GEFS did well starting early on too but that could be incorrect recollection on my part. There was also a wacky 00Z Euro run right the night before that cut precip amounts for some reason, which momentarily caused alarm I seem to recall. 

    January Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

    I remember getting a pack of baseball cards for 20 - 25 cents and it came with gum . Sometimes that was my lunch :lol:

    Well, card stock is a good source of fiber. Just hope you didn't consume any of the really valuable cards!

    Oh wait, you were referring to having the gum for lunch... I think! :lol:

    • Haha 2

    January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Where's the huge Bob Chill stunned face?! :o

    What an unreal, amazing Euro run there.  I seriously doubt it will be just like that (but we can hope, sure!)...but I'm encouraged by the possibility even if it ends up not as out-there crazy with the totals or how long it stalls just off OC.  Good 12Z suite today, really.  Let's face it, even the lighter amounts in the GFS and CMC give us near or at warning-level snows.  The Para GFSv16 gives a solid 6-12", the UKMET is in that ballpark.  And the Euro on the high end.  Can't much complain about those goal posts, really, at this point.

    Anyone offhand have the temperatures through the entire time?

    January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

    The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. 

    I'm hoping we can score a big event of course...as is essentially everyone else here.  But expecting that?  Absolutely not!  Well, unless this continues and we get a lot closer with the same general evolution continuing as such of course.  It's possible to temper expectations without coming across as a downer, too.  Sometimes catching up reading in here, you'd think we lost the storm or it totally sucks when there are several posts that 06Z sucks now, it took our snow away, etc., compared to the previous cycle.  Then the more reasonable posts show that 06Z actually was pretty darned good...just not 20" perhaps!  I mean really, come on!  I don't buy it that anyone "won't be happy" with a 6-10" event as opposed to a 20" HECS vs. nothing (see:  this Thursday's non-event!).  A solid warning-level event that doesn't turn to complete slop would be nice...that's about where my expectations and hopes are...and some hope that we can perhaps maximize the potential for a more memorable event.  Strangely, at this point, I feel a bit more confident about the Sunday-Monday potential, but that's subject to change, LOL!

    • Like 4

    January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

    Impressive wedge for that range 

    F28BFD0F-5D13-432A-823F-FED070333E20.gif.269dc7b1bdd917b9c37224c681ac1cb0.gif

    PSU...I know I'm coming to this "party" late and referring to an image that's hours old.  But, this one caught my eye for some reason.  Remember showing the 850mb temps for this Thursday's non-event at one point?  There was no real cold air wedge or damming.  It was kind of a flat line through approximately the Ohio valley and east...pretty meh.  My point is, this has a much different, more classical type of look in the loop you show here.  Just something that occurred to me when I saw this.  Of course, not necessarily the final result at this point...but there's better antecedent air among other things.

    • Like 2

    January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

    Neither... it crushes us.

     

    3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

    The primary drives through there and transfers offshore. 0z took way more lps on a visit through Michigan and western New York so that's actually not bad lol. Considering the cold air and CAD signal I guess it's advantageous for us to have it in Ohio/Indiana as PSU mentioned we wanted with the Thursday event. 

    Ah, OK...LOL!!!  So you meant "don't look at it" as in a good thing, hahaha!  I just assumed it looked awful but I guess if the ops Euro was not far off from being really good, then the control would have to be at least that much.

    January Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, mappy said:

    lol nope. i live up to my name by making maps for a living, so when i say i'm distracted by too many maps, i mean that :lol:

    LOL!!  I hope you are doing well, friend, with everything going on!  I don't expect much here where I'm at in terms of snow, but at least it might be interesting and a little bit wintry-looking!

    Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

    Well sorry, I agree (it’s not discounting). I should have clarified he’s saying the verbatim output for 10-1 maps and face value is pretty unlikely! Sorry @high risk!

    No worries, I kind of thought you probably didn't intend for it to come out quite that way.  Regardless, even an inch or two with some sleet is making this a lot more interesting than I thought a day ago!

    Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

    Well I mean @high risk works in NWP is sorta saying to discount it, so hard to give it weight. 

    That's not really what he's doing here (though you may not have intended it to come across that way)...

     

    9 minutes ago, high risk said:

    Use the NAM nest, and use the snow depth or Ferrier product for an event like this.    Shows the idea of a 1-2" event from northern Loudoun across Montgomery and Howard into Baltimore which matches the HRRR nicely.

    This doesn't mean "discount the NAM", it simply states don't use the ridiculous 10:1 snow maps when we're looking at not all snow in a marginal setup, but to use the other algorithms instead for this situation (and to use the  3-km NAM nest).

    :ph34r:'d by @high risk himself, LOL!

    • Like 1
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