Scarlet Pimpernel

Gotta go with the early March wind storm in terms of a single stand-out area-wide event.  The total precipitation through the year would also be up there, as that was also record-breaking.

3 hours ago, H2O said:

hell of a sunrise this morning

Saw that...tops of the trees literally appeared reddish colored as the sun was rising through the clouds.  Really cool!  Unfortunately, I didn't have a chance to grab a photo before the lighting changed, but at least I got to see it briefly!

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So when you guys were tracking that, what did the models look like inside of those 3 days? The ns vort trended stronger and stronger? Lol (or later and later?)

And what keeps baffling me is why 2016 was so easy to track. Why is it we didn't have to worry about ns vorts or anything like that? (And why is such almost seamless tracking a rarity?) What was it that had Wes being bullish on the threat even a week before? (Is there a certain amount of blocking necessary to keep the ns vorts from disrupting?)

8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It just trended into a bad phase. 3+ days out we were thinking 6-10" then models started degrading the phase timing and qpf was shrinking. It's how it goes sometimes. We've benefitted from many timely phases too. It's a numbers game.

2016 had a west based nao block. When flow is blocked and slows down models can be more accurate from longer leads. Less speed = less chaos. If we get a stable block this winter you'll notice a difference with less volatility. Most of our events are progressive flow so things are zipping along. Very difficult to predict when you get out beyond 5 days. Sometimes just a couple days is tricky. No 2 setups are the same either. Similar progressions can lead to different reuslts. 

Getting in late here, catching up on things...I think Bob pretty well covered the differences between those two events, and I'll add some here if I may.  I honestly cannot remember the details of the "storm that shall not be named" in Dec. 2010.  I do recall it looking favorable, then we were sort of out of it, then literally on Christmas Eve we got sucked back in by a couple of nice GFS runs that had an expanded precip shield.  Though I think that was perhaps the only model really that had anything of note for our area (OK, maybe the SREF did too).  We actually did get winter storm warnings posted as I recall, then those were subsequently backed off until we had nothing but wind and flurries.  Those kinds of systems, places like Philly and north can fare a lot better; we have much less leeway for what needs to be right to score on those kinds of subtle NS/SS interactions and/or Miller-B type systems (Feb. 9-10, 2010 is the prime example of the rare time we can get it to work for our area!).

The Jan. 2016 blizzard, as Bob says, was a classic set-up for us.  I know it's hindsight and perhaps easy to say this a bit flippantly now, but the set-up was almost all but a guarantee of something significant here.  Sure, there were nuances and other small-scale factors that oscillated the thinking back and forth...not to mention worry at every detail that could affect how much snow we'd get.  But I distinctly recall looking at the guidance the Saturday afternoon beforehand (storm hit the following Friday/Saturday) and looking at the discussion in here.  At that point, (nearly) every piece of guidance fell in line with a similar look, and we all *knew* something significant was headed this way.  And they didn't really waver that much on the main factors from then on.  It was a matter of working out the details and waiting.  Feb. 5-6, 2010 is another example of a storm that was well-known days in advance (could add PD-II and Dec. 18-19, 2009 too I guess).

18 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

The Mozart-looking guy who tells AFUBN to shut-up all the time?  I have been wondering what the story is there.

Uhhh, may want to re-think that...(and yes, he does always say "shut up, Chuck!" ).

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's a picture of BEETHOVEN good sir!!! (we're both huge fans of that composer so...get it right! )

Thanks, I was just about to mention it is Beethoven (one of my favorites, as well), but you ninja'd me!! 

29 minutes ago, Scraff said:

We clutch!?

We certainly clutch pearls a lot in this forum! 

1 minute ago, Ji said:

This winter is a carbon copy of 09-10 except that the dec 19 blizzard went to Richmond. Jan 30 to feb 10 will be epic

Well at least Jan 1-29, 2010 wasn't totally awful either! 

Just now, cbmclean said:

Please do not mention that month.

Yeah I know, kind of like mentioning a certain storm in Dec 2010.   But at least we all know what happened in Jan 2016 of that winter! 

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@Ji

I was too optimistic... It can get worse. This may be the worst Pac for east coast snow chances ive ever seen 

LOL!  Damn near the entire eastern half of the Pacific has a negative anomaly.  Just ridiculous. I think December 2015 rang and wants an encore. 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Nino climo is for two base states. This isn't that unusual. We had the early cold with snow chances and then the big warm up that are both staples of weak to moderate ninos. The flip back is usually between January 15 at the earliest and  February 1 at the latest. It would have been nice to flip early but I guess that was too much to ask. What hurt is more was not cashing in on a couple good threats early in the month. 

The weeklies weren't that off on the global longwave pattern. But they were too quick to pull the PAC trough back and allowing a troug into the east. Instead the PAC trough keeps crashing the party and shifting the whole longwave pattern east putting the ridge over us. 

Ironically the gefs does that but without any downstream reaction. The EPS looks like it wants to undercut the ridge if the PAC would just back off. 

Good point on the "two base states.". Surely if we had cashed in with the southern snow earlier this month, even an upper level advisory criteria snow around here, nerves would be a lot less frayed now. Luck (bad) of the draw I suppose. So this blah period would still suck but not nearly as much and would not seem quite so desperate.  I'd be less than honest if I didn't admit that these most recent indications are quite frustrating and even getting worrisome. But I have to believe this will change eventually to some good winter pattern, and not in mid-March when it doesn't much matter. From discussions I've seen in here, there seem to just be too many "positive" indicators to think we get a near shutout until it's all but too late in the season.  Not saying anything is guaranteed, but this doesn't feel like some of the truly awful winters where everyone knew the teleconnections and everything else were hopeless from the start. 

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

Bob chill tomorrow will talk about how great the weeklies look week 3 and 4

Weeks 55-60 promise to look solid... 

I have a feeling the next round of Euro weeklies are going to look like a spectacular wreck and the Panic Room will be filling up fast (if it isn't already)!!

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

12z euro is a total dumpster fire but has some room to get worse. 0z should finish off what little chance we have.

It's not too early to start a thread for that...let's do it!

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm still confident we pull off something before the 15th. Might not be pretty but will help our sanity anyways 

Sometimes, sanity is not pretty! 

("A little madness now and then, is cherished by the wisest men!")

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But the worst part was it did deliver him about 25% more than his climo snow for the whole season in like a 4 week period and he was upset because someone else got a little more. 

And he is in the other thread wanting to punt January 20 on every year because of the sun angle and melting. 

I know this is perhaps a bit off topic in this particular thread, but I saw that "punting Jan. 20" comment and your correct reply that we'd miss a large percentage of our normal climo snow if we ignored anything after that date!  Well, off the top of my head in the time since I've been here (since 2001), here's what we'd miss if we "ended" winter on Jan. 20:

• Early Feb. 2003 (moderate event)
• Feb. 16-17, 2003 (PD-II)
• Late Feb. 2003 (another moderate event to close out that winter)
• Feb. 11-12, 2006
• Feb. 2007 (remarkable cold and some snow...though no huge storms we just missed a ton from Valentine's Day event, but did get a lot of sleet/ice)
• Mar. 1-2, 2009
• Jan. 30, 2010 (6-8" cold powder here)
• Feb. 2, 2010 (quick warning-level event on Groundhog's Day)
• Feb. 5-6, 2010; Feb. 9-10, 2010 (need we say more?)
• Mar. 25, 2013
• Feb. 12-13, 2014
• Mar. 2-3, 2014
• Mar. 16-17, 2014
• Mar. 25, 2014
• Feb. 2015 (even colder than Feb. 2007, with a couple of solid events in that month)
• Mar. 5, 2015
• Jan. 22-23, 2016
• Mar. 2017 (can't remember exact date, around the 20th, snow followed by a layer of 3" sleet)
• Mar. 22, 2018

I know there are others in the time before 2001, and these are only the "most significant" events post 2001 that I'm recalling here (may be others I neglected to mention too).  But you get the idea!  So yeah, that sun angle and melting really sucked I tell ya!  Who needed Snowmageddon anyhow?? 

(ETA:  D'oh!  Missed a couple of obvious ones and added them...including from 2010, can't believe I forgot that!)

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Massive volcanic eruption occurring again over in Indonesia. What effect does this have on the atmosphere irt weather? Or is it a tbd sort of thing?

It'll ensure we have a kick-"ash" Jan-Feb-Mar!! 

(Just couldn't resist that, I'm sorry...sort of!)

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Epic January or February or not, not seeing a flake in December is pretty rare and sh-tty

 

Interesting.  Though I'd almost argue he's being a bit disingenuous or unfair or even overly strict, as there have been a few to several years with a mere trace of snow if not exactly "0.0" at all of the 3 local area airport locations in December (and a trace is really officially "nothing measured").  I can see his point though, that it's truly hard to get absolute zero in December...perhaps harder at BWI or IAD than at DCA.  Consider it the difference between a no-hitter and a perfect game, I suppose! 

December 2015 is surely the standard for ultimate suckiness for any winter month...taking both lack of snow and torch-like temperatures into account.  DCA, in fact, recorded none (not even a trace!) of snow that December from what I saw.  BWI somehow mustered a trace.  IAD also managed a trace that year.  But nothing actually measurable.  Recall that's the December that had a +11 to +12 temperature departure for the month, and I'd argue that was *far* worse than how this December panned out.  At the least this year, we had some honest chill in the air at times.

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This thread is getting full of really awful analysis right now...not even analysis, more just whining and lamenting lack of snow.

From range we can predict basic patterns but snow in a specific location is then up to details within a pattern that can't be seen until shorter leads. When the guidance showed a -nao +pna look the first week of January and then a building epo ridge people got excited that it would snow because those pattern drivers usually set up a favorable pattern for snow. It might still snow the January 3-5 period is close. But right now the PV looks too suppressive and so it probably won't. Because of that people are now misguidedly claiming the long range guidance was wrong about the pattern. Then extending that flawed analysis to cast doubt on the rest of winter.  

But the first week of January still looks like a -nao +pna then a building epo ridge. So the guidance nailed the pattern from range. Just because it doesn't snow doesn't make the guidance wrong about the pattern. Not every good look leads to snow. 

Problem is most aren't analyzing the pattern and how the guidance performed all they are analyzing is how much snow falls in their yard.  Problem is snow is very fluky.  Fairly minor details within a pattern that can change due to chaos determine the relatively small area that gets hit with snow by any specific storm.  That's something for short to medium range discussions. Snowfall in a specific spot has nothing to do with a long range pattern analysis. 

Going forward I agree the EPS looks better. Probably another good weeklies coming tonight. The day 15 actually is significantly better than the same time on the last weeklies run and much further along on the progression towards a -AO/nao. The pac looks good already. The gefs is more ambiguous but it has a lot to like also.  The trough southwest of Alaska, -epo. But it's shifting around with its progression run to run elsewhere. 0z was a good look over the Conus and nao 6z wasn't. But even 6z wasn't far off from getting to a good pattern. 

The pattern is actually good enough that I am surprised nothing is showing as a specific threat. That is annoying. But as I said above not all good patterns lead to snow.  

This is an excellent analysis.  There you go again, PSU, using things like *gasp!* science and *gasp!* reasoning in this age of fake news and science denial!  Fetch the fainting couch and my smelling salts! 

In all seriousness, thanks for stating what you did here.  I get the frustration that many have here, now that December is all but a shutout in terms of snow.  But one cannot deny the overall pattern driving features were reasonably well forecast.  No way are those going to pick out potential individual shortwaves that might lead to an event here, nor are they "designed" to.  Any more than saying "we expect below normal temperatures for the DJF period as a whole" in the late fall would guarantee epic amounts of snow.  While it is true that the signals...-NAO/+PNA, etc...would lead one to infer higher chances of a good snow event in this area (or some snow of any kind, not necessarily a HECS), you can't guarantee it nor can you expect those signals to "see" individual smaller-scale events like that.

All we can do is hope the pattern drivers continue to look favorable, and likely sometime down the road it will result in a solid score (or two, or three, between now and mid-March).  Beats the hell out of looking at weeks of lousy pattern with no end in sight and absolutely no chance at all.

Happy Christmas, everyone!  No matter how much snow we get (or don't get!), the community here is great.  As are the interesting personalities, for better or worse!  Yeah, sounding a bit sentimental here, after a couple glasses of wine!   At any rate, cheers to all!

2 hours ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Flipped...time for a cup of Christmas punch

It flips us off every 6 hours

FIFY...

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The holy trinity!

-nao -epo +pna. 

 

Well, in this forum, it *is* like a religion!  "In the name of the -NAO, the -EPO, and the +PNA, amen!"

Well holy sh*t!  The Browns won again...and stand with a 0.500 record at 7-7-1!  After going 0-for-all-of-last-season, that's a slight improvement.   Hell, they've got as many wins as the Cavaliers do!

37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z Eps was a step forward across the board. Get your shovels ready. 

Well, well, that's certainly good news (any details??).  I suppose the 12Z EPS avoided the bad chili.

34 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Listen to him, he's a proctologist!

Sounds like a real pain in the...well, you know!  (Cue Seinfeld episode with the "Assman")

Happy Holidays, everyone!!

Solstice moon rising behind a tree...

@PrinceFrederickWx ...I wonder the same thing.  If that were a "one hit wonder" winter, or if there were no other events close to as significant that year, would that event be viewed a bit differently.  Not that I'd trade anything from 2009-10 at all, mind you, haha!  But like I said, the fact that the Dec. 2009 event could almost be an "afterthought" or "one of the big-3" by mid-February of that winter is surreal and a true testament to how record-breaking that year was.  Will we see the likes of that again?

Upon thinking of things more, I'd still have to say the most impactful and significant event in my lifetime was the "White Hurricane" that hit Ohio and other parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on Jan. 26-27, 1978.  No, the snow was not record-breaking or even all that incredible where I was in northeast Ohio (6-12", there about).  But truly dangerous and severe blizzard conditions for a full day, with wind gusts pushing 70-100 MPH and temperatures in the single-digits.  Not to mention the record-breaking low pressure over a large area (957 mb as it passed right over Cleveland, into Lake Erie and eventually southern Canada).  The temperature dropped 30 degrees in a 2-hour period between 4-6 AM that morning.  All that coupled with the fact that it occurred in the second of two very cold and snowy winters in the eastern U.S.