Scarlet Pimpernel

12 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

#SnowFlurryTruthers 

 

Nice shutout for February!  A "T"...that's like getting no-hit instead of a perfect game thrown against you, I guess.  IAD and DCA also recorded a trace, I believe.  I think I saw a flake or two at some point during the month, so yeah...a trace for me as well.  So, in the time I've been here (since 2001), this winter now stands as the worst for snow (though not sure if necessarily the warmest, but must be close!).  I measured maybe 2.0" total I think, the biggest event being 1.5" in January.  2011-12 had been the worst (closely followed by 2001-02), but this one...just a stinker all around, gate-to-gate and no letup.

Now of course, we'll get a slushy 2" sometime in March to mess that up, right?! 

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

What are you talking about, the day 280 super secret model I run out of my basement looks GREAT!  

ETA: for Maine 

That should get us into early December.  I'm all in!!  Start a thread!

Very cool, @WxWatcher007!  And like I said before, great photos/videos...what an event to experience!  Now...get back home safely!

(ETA:  I particularly liked the "Park Farther Walk More" sign, buried in snow!!  Just seems a bit ironic somehow, haha!)

13 minutes ago, RDM said:

Haha - believe it or not, I remember that story in 77.  Remember the cutter having to go out after them when the ice they were on broke off and stranded them.  I think we had around -28F IVO Dayton.  We never got above freezing nearly the entire month of Jan.  I

The cold in 77 raised havoc with municipal infrastructure too.  In Ohio building code for water lines and building footers is 4 feet below grade to help avoid frost heave, vice 2 feet below grade around here.  That year the frost line got down way below 4 feet, which cracked foundations and burst water mains.  Remember the facilities guys in our little town had constant issues repairing busted mains, and the flooding that occurred.  The elevated water tower in town froze over too, which had never happened before (according to the really old timers).  The overflow nearly destroyed a couple nearby homes.  The impact of extreme temps as you approach or exceed -30F can be surprising.  Then the year after 77 we had the grand ole blizzard of 78....  

Yeah, Jan '77 was absolutely brutal state-wide (hell, for a wide region outside there too!).  Even for someone who likes cold and snow, it was a bit much!  I recall Cleveland did not go above freezing from about the last week of December through the first week of February.  I think that was true for the entire state pretty much.  And several below zero days/nights through that time for sure.  We didn't get an excessive amount of snow, but whatever fell collected and stuck around for a good, long time.  Average temperature at KCLE for that January was 11 degrees!  That's still their coldest January and coldest month on record.  Lots of days off from school too, I remember.  They were putting sand and crushed coal on the roads simply because it was too cold for regular salt to do any good, and at least that gave you some traction.

33 minutes ago, RDM said:

That's about the annual LES schedule I remember too growing up.  Michigan would freeze over earlier than Erie, which would shut off our options for getting squalls where I lived.  Even down by Dayton we'd sometimes pickup some decent LES qualms that could accumulate over a day or two, even given the distance from the GLs.   Not sure, but I don't think Erie froze over solid this year.  

Yeah, with the right wind, those Lake Michigan streamers can get all the way to southwest and central Ohio!  Cool to see on radar when it happens.

I would doubt Lake Erie froze over this year, and would not be surprised if it had far less ice than usual.  I don't recall the stats, but it doesn't always freeze completely even most years, but a good percentage of it typically does (it's the shallowest of all the Lakes!).  Of course, I remember back during the record cold January 1977, a couple bozos decided to "walk across the lake" from Ohio to Canada, as it was definitely frozen over that year.  What they didn't realize is that even frozen over and record cold, the ice is still thin in the middle part of the lake and they got trapped.  I think an ice cutter had to go in there to rescue them, maybe they were the wiser for it afterward!  Oh, and then there's the annual Polar Bear Club that picks what normally is one of the coldest days of the year...and these guys jump into Lake Erie with only swim trunks on.  I'm sure tons of alcohol beforehand kept them warm enough, hahaha!  Those crazy Ohioans!!!

2 hours ago, RDM said:

I'm schizophrenic in how to respond.  One part of me says "Awesome!" and the other part is jealous as hell and has nothing but contempt for how awful this year has been...  So close, but so far away.   

The mere fact the LES machine is in high gear the end of Feb, due to the lack of anything frozen on Erie and Ontario, is more testimony to this year's lack of cold.  Normally the LES machine dies down in Dec or early Jan as the lakes freeze over or at least the water temp cools.  Water temps in Erie are several degrees warmer than normal which is helping fuel the fetch.  My relatives back Dayton, Ohio even got some LES squalls yesterday off of lake Michigan.  Very rare for this time of year.

Enjoy the spectacle up there and please keep the videos coming....  

Yup, the relative warmth this year certainly has kept the lake effect machine running more than usual.  Lake Erie nearly always gets decent ice cover at some point, I think this year was very little if any?  Growing up, I distinctly remember a "lull" in lake effect snows in the Cleveland area from about the 2nd week of January through most or all of February, due to ice on Lake Erie.  Then it would start back up again in March during cold outbreaks when the ice began to let up (November-December were also good for that!).

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Watertown delivers again 

 

Awesome stuff, @WxWatcher007!!  Great photos and videos, it's really cool you were able to "chase" that remarkable event.  Thanks for sharing!!  But dayum, does that ever make me miss lake effect snows!!  Grew up with that in northeast Ohio, lots of fun and some of the most amazing snow rates I've seen.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I know the thread is a dumpster fire joke at this point but it can snow even into late March here, and some of the years it did were god awful seasons like this one.  

 

March 25, 2013 comes to mind.  Now, that wasn't as bad as this winter has been, but it was loaded with disappointment (especially when we got screwed earlier that month).

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS still showing don’t give up hope during the second week of March.  To make myself aa clear as I can there is 0% chances of an event through next Thursday.   After that, we have a slight chance for about a week.  That is all that I think that is advertised.  Luck would help.  You have to understand that probability maps are a snapshot. There is no cumulative effect.  For example, whether I flip a coin once or a thousand times, there is a 50% of getting heads or tails each time.  The difference with the snow probability maps is that every six hours you get a little closer to the target period with updated weather data input.  So it will be interesting to see if the probs increase over the next week for the second week of March and whether other models also show it. I would only note that I am not remembering a period recently where GEFS has shown some signals, albeit weak for the same time period two days in a row.

 

 

Let's just take p02 or p19 and be done with it!

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You have more chance of waking up in Oz than with snow on the ground. 

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Was thinking something along those lines...lol That we may have to follow the yellow brine road to find some snow!

Well, it actually did snow in Oz, you'll recall...when Dorothy et al. were on their way to the Emerald City, Glinda the good witch made it snow to wake them up.  Enough to cover the grass and stick to the pavement (yellow brick road) even, I believe!!  I don't know what the sun angle was, however. 

(ETA:  The Emerald City itself got fringed by that event!!!)

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

And to be fair your posts aren’t 99% crap and you don’t go from sub to sub picking fights so you would likely get way more leeway. 

Thanks, appreciate that...

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Exactly so maybe you should talk about it in that region. What’s next...talk about a Boxing Day repeat?...another March 2001?  Oh maybe a December 2000 too?  I wouldn’t bring up Feb 5 2010 in the NYC sub. 

Well, to be fair, I myself also look back fondly at April 1982 and that winter in general (I'm assuming you mean Apr. 5-6 that year).  But that's from the perspective of northeast Ohio, not NYC, and nowhere near this place.  KCLE got ~12".  That was a great storm in the midwest, and I honestly at the time had no idea what it might have done outside there.  Plus, it's the storm that put KCLE over the top for snowiest winter on record there at the time (it's since been broken), by a good margin thanks to that event.

This winter has been so bad...("How bad was it??" yells the crowd!)...it's been so bad that we even get a leap day this February just to add one more day this month that it won't snow!!

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

my perfect track rainstorm is there on the GFS again lol

Start a thread post haste!!  Maybe even a radio show! 

(Yeah, I used the term "post haste"!!)

17 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its here-

That was the winter Boston had over 100", much of it coming in Feb.

That was indeed a classic rant post...bravo @Jebman!  I remember that post well from the time.  If ever AmWx could give some kind of literary award for top posts, this would win hands down!

Oh, and yeah, that was the year we got screwed for much of the winter.  Then things turned around and lined up right for us over the next 3-4 weeks, and we did really well in that time.

16 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If we’re not having fun one way or another during the winter, we’re doing it wrong.

Very true!  I had actually forgotten @Jebman posted that in Panic Room that year (though I did read it at the time)!  Back in the early days of the Room, when you didn't have all the fine amenities, waiters to serve you drinks, dance floors, etc.!!

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think from here on...no winter outlooks until December. Just don't do it, lol Don't even bother (unless it's a mod nino or something)

Wouldn't be prudent...at this juncture!

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

What do you mean NAM range? We haven't even gotten anything into the range where the op runs of the Globals become somewhat useful.

Now to be fair, I think we may have gotten into CFS range a time or two back in late December or early January.  But otherwise, yeah, not so much!! 

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm going all-in balls deep on this threat. This will be the one that fools people into thinking it cant snow last week of Feb and cant snow with a +NAO and is going to shock the system of many. Be ready.

Did @Jebman steal your account info? 

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man that one still kinda hurts...lol That turned out to be the only shot at a foot we've had since 2016 (barring a March miracle this year)

You think that one hurts?  You should have been here (maybe you were?) for the infamous "Storm Which Shall Not Be Named" in December 2010 (ahem...Boxing Day, oops, I said it!).  I think that's what started @Bob Chill  and many others harming bunnies and other cute furry animals of varying types when things go wrong! 

3 hours ago, ravensrule said:

MD moved up to number 7 like i thought. Fear the Turtle. 

Close to a lock for a solid #2 seed, I'd imagine?  (Assuming things remain constant to selection Sunday).

@Bob Chill, today was an awesome day for a ride (which you probably knew already)!!  Yesterday would have been fine too, but I was unfortunately busy and didn't get out.  However, I wasn't going to let anything deter me this afternoon.  Even to get out there for a relatively short time, it was great to go for a spin.  I hope you were able to take advantage of this weather either yesterday or today yourself and hit some trails!

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Don't worry, it's not happening.  I'm a SE weenie, but I'm not delusional.

You've come to the right place, then!! 

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If that's your opinion, take it up with the moderators. And there's also an ignore button too. (And I find it interesting that you singled just me out for this...)

Don't let it bother you too much, though at the same time I might suspect Rvarookie might just be trolling for fun.  Seems to happen a lot in here lately, hahaha!  There have been a lot of crap posts or worthless ones for what's supposed to be a "discussion" thread here, but it is what it is.  Yours are far from the "worst", and I'll admit to making my own snarky non-relevant comments in here too (rather than in Banter).  Now, if we ever get a storm mode, different story!!  (and at this point, fat chance we'll have reason for "storm mode" any time soon, haha!!)

14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Most on here realize the futility we have gone through this year. We get it. So why state the obvious (being failure) on something posted that actually has somewhat of a positive spin? All this negativity gets old, hell it has been old for several years now. Just saying.

Meh...Get Off My (snow-free) Lawn!!  

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd much rather have something to track 10 days out, than to have to wait 10 days just to have a chance at tracking something ANOTHER 10 days out from there. Mercy...I'd much rather something come from THIS Day 8-11. (And as I stated above, my own historical bias for not believing in end of February snow)

Well, I can totally get that, when looking at what appear to be "dead zones" of snow events in the climatological record.  It's an interesting phenomenon, not sure how much of that is "luck".

Then again, we supposedly had no real events the middle 2 weeks of January either, historically speaking.  Then 2016 happened...

(ETA:  I seem to recall some end of February events, even in the metro DC/Balt regions.  Feb. 25, 2007...a 5-6" pasting that originally was supposed to be ice and rain.  And in 2003, around that same date (25th, there about??), we got a decent event, a couple weeks after PD-II).