Scarlet Pimpernel

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

FV3 starts at 1am Wed.  I can get with that.

Whoa...that's a good bit faster than other guidance, and I think even faster than what it showed earlier.

ETA:  One thing I do like is seeing the precip start time moved up (earlier) lately.  Maybe 1AM is a bit much but at least pre-dawn now.  The other day there was a trend toward it starting later, well after 12Z in some model runs.

5 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

I’m doing Keto right now and loving it!! Avocados are so good. I eat them straight with salt and pepper. Love them. The avocado’s at the grocery store here the best I’ve ever had. Cheese is also a big staple in this lifestyle switch. Protein and fat with a little carbs. It does stink that I can’t have stuff like Mac and Cheese, fries, or other snacks, but cheese cubes, assorted nuts, and Greek yogurt have been great to eat for snacks and meal additions. Plus, any diet that encourages eating ribeye steaks and butter is good with me haha
 

 

Love avocados.  Agree that even just by themselves with salt and pepper is great. There was a place in Atlanta when I lived there that had an avocado appetizer... Both halves served with an Italian type dressing poured into the gap where the pit was. F'ing awesome stuff right there! I would get that for myself as a meal. 

Just now, losetoa6 said:

I bet the nam thermals are closer to right then wrong.  Keeps most below freezing through 0z Thursday  ...and I'm betting it will be longer . 

If that is correct, late Wednesday afternoon would be a nightmare in terms of ice...especially those deeper in the cold surface air.

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

still a start time of around 12z.  Thumping at 15z then the switch at 18z.   Still holding on to cold surface temps at 18z, but of course there's a warm layer above 850.

OK...so we're looking at on the order of ~6 hours of decent snow from essentially all models at this point, with the NAM perhaps most aggressive.  I presume we'll flip from mix/slop to all rain toward evening Wednesday at some point.

(Just saw your later message, NAM keeps us icy into late afternoon apparently!)

Just now, losetoa6 said:

That's actually pretty funny Zugswang. I almost spit out a little bit of my PBR .

Only the finest beer for the NAM, eh?! 

OK so NAMature hour is over, time for the big models hahaha! All joking aside, if we're going to have half a chance to score well with this setup, what it shows is what we'd need. 

NAM at range and all the other caveats, but still have to like what it shows. Precip arrives earlier, pre-dawn, and looks like ~4" by early morning Wed. Yeah snow maps suck, I know, but it is all snow through the end of the run at 12z Wed. So if (if... if!) it is correct that's a beat down to that point and would be more coming after. Cold at surface and 850s are as well. 

Whatever it's worth, fun to look at and get NAM'd at least once! 

ETA... Clearly one of the big factors is getting precip in fast, early, and at a good rate. Take advantage of the cold while it's there for as long as it can manage. 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can respectfully disagree with conservatives and have plenty of conservative friends. But I have no time or patience for bigots. 

Same here.  I don't mind a good debate/discussion with someone who won't resort to ad hominem attacks or comments, deny facts or science, or go on and on about culture wars.  I may not agree with most of their positions (my views are certainly left of center), but I would be able to respect the difference of opinion and perhaps reach some consensus on a lot of issues.  I cannot talk to someone who is so batshit crazy unreasonable and way out there in their ideology.  There's just no way to converse or debate with that.

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol this is the least antagonistic shirt I have. Was a gift from someone. When I’m in the mood to mix it up with the locals I’ll throw on one of my more inflammatory ones and just go out around town.  I used to try to lay low and not get into it...then between some of the abhorrent outright blatant racist things people have said to me...and the death threats I got after I started a protest campaign that ended up in the paper and forced Manchester stop displaying the confederate flag at our official fire dept fair...I decided F it I’m going the other way and throwing it in their faces!!!

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One of my neighbors has a confederate encampment in his yard and walks around wearing a confederate battle hat and a shirt that says Robert E Lee...if you aren’t with us you’re against us.  Lol.  

If he can do that I should be able to wear any shirt I want. My other “sane” neighbor was messing with him recently. He isn’t actually moving but he told him he was and that he was showing the property to prospective buyers that evening knowing it would drive him crazy when he saw they were African American.  Everyone played along. Even walked them around the property pointing at stuff to make it seem they were scouting it out. 

Wow man...my condolences having to deal with all that crap!  I'd about lose it to be honest.  And displaying the confederate flag at a fire department fair...dafuq??  Really?

I lived in Atlanta for several years while in grad school up through mid-2001.  Fortunately, since it was fairly open/liberal/cosmopolitan in Atlanta (and Georgia Tech's campus), I didn't see a lot of the other BS that goes on "outside" the metro area there, but I sure knew about it.  At that time they still had the confederate flag prominently displayed as part of the GA state flag, and don't even get me started about the Stone Mountain carving (east of Atlanta).  It was like entering a different world...heck, a different century!...when one got much outside Atlanta.  I will say this...I always was proud to have John Lewis as my Congressman at the time (he's still there!), in the district I lived in.  Got to vote for him like 3 times while there.

21 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Shouldn't we be expecting a change to rain with a track west like that though? I feel like the key will be getting the nice snow accumulation with the CAD but I don't think the CAD will hold for the entirety of the storm with that kind of track. Now if the track shifts east at all, that would help our chances. 

Absolutely...I don't think there's any way to avoid some kind of all-rain at some point with this setup.  But it would be nice if that period occurred during a relative dry-slot as the main precip moved out.

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't think it's depressing. It's annoying. People aren't here for the fun of the science anymore as much as looking for a dumpster to unload their displeasure or satisfaction deficit with basically everything. 

Amen!  Well, some of us are still here for the science and discussion (despite the dumpster fires).  And whatever fun can still be gleaned.  It does get annoying to see people show an unfavorable deterministic plot of the 384-h GFS 500 mb pattern and say "where's the great pattern, this sucks!!!", or "where did our day 12 storm go, it's gone, we're screwed!"  Every.Single.Cycle.  Or the feeling that if we're not getting a HECS, it's not worth it (as if those are a dime-a-dozen in these parts!  People forget that the "H" in HECS means historical for a reason!).

On a side note, Bob...I also like how you can really appreciate even the small events.  There are a certain number of those over the years that just "stand out" despite not being huge.  Some of them bookmark certain periods or add an exclamation point, so to speak.  You've mentioned the Feb. 14, 2015 snow squall a few times, and that's perhaps the best example of that kind of event.  2" in the space of an hour followed by an Arctic blast.  I still look back on that event as one of the neatest "little" events I can recall!  And of course it ushered in a great period of winter at that time, too.  Similarly, I actually liked the cold powder 1.5" snow I got on Feb. 1 this year.  It was more than expected, lasted most of the day...it just kept on snowing lightly and wouldn't stop!...and it was in the 20s all day long.  Nifty!

Just now, yoda said:

I wonder though if it's not doing CAD long enough?  Still... it's a good run outside of the rain lol 

Probably isn't holding CAD quite enough...and yeah, it is a much better run than previously for sure!  Sort of related, I think the Euro just kind of dry-slotted us instead at the end?

Just now, BristowWx said:

Better than how it looked 48 hours ago so at least this beats that. Maybe the CAD will hold longer

Absolutely, I agree.  But just saw that when I looked at more detail.  Much better than the no chance all rain scenario we were looking at yesterday.

Not to be a downer, but it is worth noting the FV3 does flip to rain and dumps ~0.75"+ in the 24 hours after that change-over.  Of course the same amount or more falls before that, as snow/ice.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

That is the trend worth watching. Getting that east pushes the better waa into our area faster. Less risk of it sliding to our NW.  Plus you get that low into eastern TN and there is even a chance it jumps and the whole thing stays under us. Crazier things have happened.   

Yup, was thinking of that, as you mentioned it earlier (with 12Z GFS).  That 12Z GFS had the low in western TN as I recall, this run of the FV3 looks to be around south-central TN, but it's hard to tell because the "stamp" covers up some of the detail and isn't necessarily the location of the "center" or closed region.  But it does look close to there FWIW.  Good trends today, that's for sure.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

None of it. Icon counts ice as rain not snow. Lol 

LOL!!  Well, that makes sense then now that I think of it, if it considers ice as just rain (and wouldn't add to the snow total)!  Crazy.  Anyhow, I'm assuming there is ice sometime right after that snow plot is valid.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Fv3 looks good. 850 implies next frame would be snow too. 

happy hour is back!!!

And low is a bit farther east in TN, without also being more north?  (ETA:  wait, I might be thinking of the ops GFS, not the FV3, from the previous cycle, but anyhow...)

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

ICON is usually a cheapskate with snow....this is significant for the icon...

How much of that is ice?  Or, more precisely I guess, when does it change to ice?  The TT precip plots for that model I know are awful, since it doesn't show mix/ice even when there is (it displays as rain).  And yeah, I'm too lazy right now to check the temps...figuring someone already has, LOL!! 

Any indication of surface temps through the time we have any ice?

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ice isn't done until 7pm Wed.  The CAD is mean on the Euro

Mids hang on a bit longer too, compared to 12Z yesterday (looking at TT output, limited amount of detail).  At 12Z Wed. in today's run, 850 line is still well south of here...yesterday's 12Z had it already long gone at the same time.  And even last night's 00Z, it was north of us (around the M/D line) at 00Z Wed.

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's not like we've been getting 1 foot storms every week.   A man in a desert thinks a 4 oz cup of water is a big deal.  

God:  I see you are dying of thirst, my son osfan24.  Here, sip this water of life from my chalice that you may be revived!

osfan24:  But the water has a speck of dirt in it!  And only 4 oz left!

11 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Unreal. You can see the mid February sun angle evaporating that dirt on contact. Fail! We suck. 

Now that is some funny s*it!

Wait...are you indirectly saying the Reaper sucks because the dirt he uses evaporates in the strong February sun angle? 

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I am  announcing that I am officially recognizing the ICON as a legit model.  It has been the first to sniff out a lot of trends and it was pointed out to me by a poster (who I wish would wake the hell up and come back to this board and start posting) how it killed it during some past events and you know what?  They were right.   Sure, it wobbles, but I need to go ahead and admit I was wrong about it being a totally shit model.   Is it Euro level?  Shut up Euro.  For me, the Euro is still an MVP, but past it’s prime years.  Verification scores, etc etc.  I know.  Still….Icon, I apologize.   That is all.

 

Now let’s get back to generating 90 pages of content for an event that will fail 36 hours before hand.  It’s what we do…and we do it well.

That is quite an...iconic statement! 

And I never knew Chuck was the Euro!

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Sometimes I can't browse the site because of the drivel. There's some people on here that need to grow up. I'll throw some jokes around, but some people in here are way too serious about stuff out of their control. It's maddening. It's okay to be disappointed, but anger, constant deb on things, and being hostile to others is just out of line. I miss your contributions. Hope you're doing good Andy. 

12 minutes ago, H2O said:

Its bad.  And the effort to call people out and get them to post better for some reason causes more problems.  Its supposed to be a distraction, hobby.  Not how someone should value their life and worth on if it snows.

i would like to post more and get back to having fun but not when its a drag.  

Thanks for the kind words.  You might be one of the few that does miss my goofiness.  Its been nice to not deal with all the negativity so in that regard I am doing well.  Hope you are doing good too, Scott.

Totally agree here, and I think WxWatcher made a similar commentary on the subject the other day.  Heck, last year Bob made a specific thread calling this out because it got so bad.  While I get the disappointment and frustration on how things have gone, do we need to see tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth with every comment in the medium range and specific event threads?  It really has gone downhill the past couple of years it seems; sometimes it's unreadable to wade through pages of "next, this sucks, cancel winter!" posts just to get a few good pieces of information on what's going on.  And some of the comments are just flat out incorrect and "out there".  A few humorous cuts are great, but the constant negativity gets really old.

I in no way claim to be the best or most knowledgeable poster on here, and sure, I can get just as frustrated when things don't work out, but I at least try to keep that to myself.  I try to post things that are relevant, ask a question, add information however I can, and even throw in the humorous/snarky comment.  There are a lot of knowledgeable people on here who have better and faster access to information on here than I do, and I always look to them for the intelligent discussion and input.  So... @Bob Chill, @showmethesnow, @psuhoffman, @MillvilleWx, and a few others I probably forgot on here...please don't let the trolls or trollish comments push you away from this site.  Your input is valuable and always appreciated despite some who flood these pages with crap.  And @WxWatcher007, don't get pushed out either...the whole Reaper personality and Panic Room are a hoot, and I'm sure many like the humorous diversion!

Somehow, I almost feel like I made this same post a year or so ago!  Twilight Zone or something...

Oh, and P.S... Millville, best of luck on the Radar Certification...really cool!

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

The models have to be right at some point. Law of averages or some such nonsense. Right? RIGHT? 

Bet you were saying that in Vegas, too, eh??