Scarlet Pimpernel

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Guess who issued his first ever Blizzard Warning in the NWS? 

Ji?  (Or a distant relative) 

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like it's starting to show a way for our region to be on the right side of the gradient at some point  d11+. As is it's a brief window of a few days with cold air overhead. It would only take 1 slow juicy gradient wave to launch our area out of the disaster zone. Guarded skepticism is warranted until it hits a range that is believable. I'm obviously pessimistic for now. If it breaks right we'll run naked in the streets. Or at least wearing candy apple red speedos. 

I guess that means cute, furry bunnies would be safe as well? 

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Little punctuation change and wow, plot twist. 

Ha!  Kind of reminds me of that book "Eats Shoots and Leaves", depending on how you punctuate that it can have vastly different meanings!!

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It was an amazing event on every level. Rivals the first feb 2009 event for long tracking. 09 gets the nod because NWP technology is more advanced now. 

I try to never want to tell people how to think about winters or events. I will say there are plentiful people that think we live in Buffalo for # of events and Boston for size of events and anything less than that is abject failure. Kinda like you. LoLoL.

We regularly have warm lame winters with abysmal snowfall. Any winter better than that is a win to me. So far this year it's one of the absolute worst winters. We knew we never had a chance in 2011-12 so it wasn't a big deal. 12-13 was bad with enough action late to not be abject failure. This winter is brutal because there's been a lr storm lurking at all times that never comes close to working out. It's like a hex or something 

 

Funny, but in so many ways I miss living in northeast Ohio!  No, we never got the big East Coast storm totals, or maybe something on the periphery from huge ones like March 1993.  In my time here (going back to 2001), I've seen more snow from the big single storms than from any single synoptic scale event in Ohio.  I swear I never witnessed a 20" storm until I lived here, and I've now experienced 4 of them (and a couple of others not far behind).  But damn...even in a crap year you could pretty well count on 40" for the season in northeast Ohio, especially on the east side of Cleveland where I was (KCLE averages around 60, I think).  And you could always count on some decent lake effect events after rain and a cold front went through.  We'd get a good number of 4-8/6-12 kind of synoptic events, and it would generally stick around for awhile just simply because, well, it's a lot colder there climatologically than here!  I won't even go into the Ohio Blizzard of 1978 (The "White Hurricane" as it was known), which...even though it didn't have a large amount of snow...is still the most severe and dangerous winter storm I've lived through.

When I first moved here, it took me a couple or so years to realize the "average" snow was kind of meaningless, and that you get feast or famine in most years.  That wasn't true in northeast Ohio, where the variance is far less!  Now I totally understand what's what here.  Get hammered, or get nothing, and all it takes is one damn big storm to exceed normal.  In a way, I've actually learned to appreciate that!

1 hour ago, wxtrix said:

again, not family programming so your strawman is stupid.

Personally, I think the performers coming out dressed in Puritan-like outfits or something from the Victorian era would have been great!  Like back in the day when they thought the waltz was scandalous because you had to *touch* (gasp!) your partner and hold them close.  Fetch my fainting couch...and where are the smelling salts!!  (I think it was Winston Churchill who said something like dancing is the vertical expression of the horizontal urge??).

(Yes, that was all meant to be sarcastic!). 

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can’t wait to be a dad. I think I’d be great at it. 

I can see it now...Reaper, Jr.  "Hey Son, time to learn the family business.  I take bitter, sad weenie souls and bring them peace when it doesn't snow.  Here, you need some practice.  Let's try someone easy for you first...hmmmm, let's see what you can do with Ji!"

By the time he's grown up, imagine the kinds of gif images and other animation that might be available at that time!!  Make sure he (or she!) is up on the hospitality side too, if your new fancy Panic Room suites are to keep going!!

59 minutes ago, mappy said:

depends on who you ask. i think many would say one storm doesn't make a winter. without that Jan blizzard, almost everyone would have had less than 10 that year (myself included) 

You're right...it depends on whom you ask, and even where they live (their particular local climo., that sort of thing).  And in general, I'd agree that one storm doth not a winter make, but in 2016 I personally would make an exception.  Simply because...oh, my!!...what a storm!  Like you, I certainly would have less than 10", probably far less, that season without the blizzard.  I think we got a small snow to ice event in February sometime, but that was it.  And the little clipper-like snow a couple of days before the blizzard when it was quite cold was neat.  After the ridiculous +11.5 temperature departure for December 2015, damn near anything looked good!

Last year was a mixed bag, and again depended on where you live I guess.  Kinda average for the most part.  The DC metro area got that one nice event in mid-January, there was some solid cold that month, and we got the neat event in February.  At least there was cold around throughout the season.  The disappointment really was how so many medium range models and ensembles kept trying to show a great pattern...that never really materialized (frustrating from an NWP perspective, for sure!).  But that's more an expectation issue than the actual weather.  This winter, even if we get one decent warning-level event, won't be even in the same zip code as last year...and I say that simply because there has been almost literally no cold air around here at all.  A couple of crisp days, but we had damn near everything go wrong.  Now if we get a PD-II or 2016 or some other HECS, I may change that view of this year a little!

I've often said that 2006-07 was pretty darned good, in my book.  No, we didn't get a lot of snow, in fact I think most areas were below normal?  But after a warm December and first half of January that winter, things got going!!  From mid-Jan through about early or mid-March, it was memorable for me...especially the very cold February!  And we did get some snows as well as very trackable events.  That winter, honestly, was one storm away from probably being on everyone's "good to very good" list (I'm talking about the Valentine's Day event, that ended up as sleet/ice around here).  Move that storm track just a bit and we'd all have gotten an area-wide foot or so from it...though that's like me saying in hindsight about the 2016 World Series, "If Jason Kipnis' long fly ball in the bottom of the 9th of Game 7 was 2 feet to the left instead of just foul, he'd have had a walk-off Series winning HR, and Cleveland would be the champs that year!" (LOL!!).  But even without that storm being a big hit, 2006-07 for some reason always stands out as one I remember in a good way.

41 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The sequel is coming this March my friend. 

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Feb 2003, Dec 2013, Feb/mar 2014 all bore some resemblance. 

So...you're guaranteeing another Storm of the Century then, here in a new century now!!  You saw it here first (well, 2nd, JB beat you to the punch!!).

(Saying this all in jest, by the way, as I'm sure you know!!)

4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

To me that’s the exact look of PDII.

Lets do that and then repeat March 1993 on March 13. Then let’s rate the winter lol

Almost.  But as I recall the wave/surface low in PD-II was not all that strong, it was by and large a huge overrunning event into very cold air.  And there was much better blocking in place for the high.  At any rate, as depicted here we hold on a remarkable amount of time to frozen/freezing, which is like PD-II in a way.  I know it's ridiculous to detail a single run 2 weeks out there (but still fun, and all we got right now!).

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Happy last month of met winter, weenies!

 

Nice change to your avatar there!  Buying yourself some nice Cubans with all the cash you've made on the new Panic Room suites, ballroom, casino, and bar, I see??

4 hours ago, RDM said:

Noted sarcasm on target.  Dunno what happened in the main thread the last few days.  The sad outlook for sn hardly justifies filling it it up with what's akin to banter.  The banter of repeated postings of percentage maps and other "stuff" such as ski trips as a thin attempt to put lipstick on a pig overshadows the occasional learning opportunity from the posts that are worthwhile.  

Realize the outlook is bleak, but if there's nothing to report, we gotta preserve at least some minimal standards...  When you see there's 30+ unread posts in the medium range and get hope there may be something new worthwhile, it's a real letdown when you read through them only to discover the majority of the posts should be here...  Give the mods a break please.

Yup, sarcasm and snark fully intended on my post up there!  Thanks for appreciating it!  But yeah, it is annoying to see a bunch of new posts in the model/long range thread only to realize 99% of them are banter-like complaining.  There definitely is no putting lipstick on the pig that is our current winter situation!  Can we at least make bacon from that pig (mmmm, baaaacon!)?? 

Happy February to all!!  Let's keep this thread clean and on topic, sticking only to model discussions and anything relevant to that or to climatology.  Mods, please move any banter over to the main medium range thread where it belongs...thanks!! 

Just now, showmethesnow said:

I am not really sure this belongs in here. Being this is the banter thread and all...

But I actually can live with the look the EPS is now throwing at us just beyond the mid range. At this time we are seeing a couple of things I mentioned that I was hoping for just the other day. Getting a better look in the west with a shifting of the EPO eastward as well as the beginnings of a northern based +PNA. We are also seen somewhat of a shifting of the PV around Greenland SEward to help knock down the flow in the east. Still some work to be done but the look is more manageable then what we were just seeing a few days ago.

eta: GEFS is still rough though. But we are seeing one thing I like with that as well. That has also moved to shift the PV around Greenland SEward.

This is for overflow banter...or maybe that's what the actual Banter thread is for and this is the "real" one?  I've lost track at this point!!   

Anyhow...yeah, GEFS isn't the greatest.  But overall, whatever the indications are worth, I think there are signs for things to potentially be somewhat better toward the middle of the month.  I don't think we exit the month of February with a zero  in the snow department (not saying how much above zero it will be, mind you!).  But that could be sheer optimism on my part.

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Right on cue Euro throws us a bone inside 7 days no less . The tracking never stops 

Dr. Evil No throws us a fricking bone???

So...is this where one goes to prepare before entering the Panic Room?  Or is it now direct competition? 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The next time we get a winter like 2010 or 2014 I am going to complain constantly how "all this snow isn't normal"

Well, you see, the irony is that you would be correct by saying that!! 

26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I don't know what "12z rubs" means.

Something you season a nice steak with before putting it on the grill?

28 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

it's a dang weather board full of people who love snow.

...and therein lies the problem! 

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

PS: expect the banter thread to be filled with more posts like that. moving them out of the LR as i see them. 

Not a task I'd envy doing.  Like cleaning the Augean Stables. 

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

So I take a break and come back to take a look and now even the banter thread sucks a$$. 

 

Nah.  Just that the Banter thread has now become nothing but overflow for the tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth and petty arguing from the regular model/discussion thread!

I'm worried @WxWatcher007 might require mods in the Panic Room, at this rate!!

50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Shhhhh. Weenie rule #1387...if the kuchera shows ice or sleet then defer to TT and factor it all as pure snow.

30 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Tell rule #923 to the rest of this winter, hasn’t worked out well so far.

 

I do believe several of the original Weenie Commandments may have been lost accidentally by Ji sometime in history...

1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Wait, you live in your mothers basement? That would make sense 

I don't know...I thought his drinking Schlitz and PBR was worse!!

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a chance that it’s mathematically possible that it could happen.  

The Browns could win the Super Bowl next year, too.  That's still a mathematical possibility...at this point, anyhow!

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What the hell is happening in here?

You don't want to know...

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man the ice under your feet lacks depth at the moment.. 

Haha, yeah, maybe.  But sometimes the humor here lacks depth as well!

Sorry folks, but I think @ravensrule spammed my account for a moment there with that previous comment.  But even he might blush at that (nahhhh, not really!)!!

48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Yeah, I ain't touching that one. 

Won't touch that with a 10 meter cattle prod!!  (Wait...the reaper, speechless???)

https://yarn.co/yarn-clip/2c8e1816-27a7-4802-ba80-4c8df5028d3f