Scarlet Pimpernel

Just now, yoda said:

That's what I figured lol... I had just never heard the term zugzwang before in my chess playing.  Totally learned a new term today. 

I play off and on online... tbh I consider myself to be pretty good lol.  I play both types of games -- untimed or with a clock.  With a clock (I usually do 10 minutes) you will make the occasional bad move and you just have to hope your opponent doesn't see it.  My downfall in chess playing is I look to far ahead -- I end up overanalyzing the board and think 3-4 moves ahead and will often miss the obvious move I should have made earlier (i.e. putting black's king in check or doing a knight/bishop swap to open the board more) 

Yeah, it's kind of an obscure term perhaps, though it's a situation that does occur and sometimes people will use the term in that case.  The situation I show in the avatar, of course, is the extreme!!  Though I think there are actual games where both players might be in zugzwang!  The joke in the name is that sometimes when playing chess...or even just life in general...one feels like they're always in a state of zugzwang!! LOL!!

I haven't played as much lately but used to play a lot more and liked sitting down going over some of the older well-known games from some books.  Still like doing that, but don't get around to it as much as I had (but maybe I should again!).  I'm pretty decent, especially if I "get back into" playing and actually study a little.  Played a ton in high school, too, with a few other fellow chess geeks!

1 minute ago, BlizzardNole said:

I get a kick out of these Calif. mountain storms.  This is from near Ebbets Pass:

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 19. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind around 75 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 24 to 30 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 70 to 80 mph decreasing to 60 to 70 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 22 to 28 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 22. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 60 to 65 mph decreasing to 50 to 55 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

Even @Ji would be happy with that...

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...nah, who are we kidding!!! 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

I actually didn't know his name was a chess term until I looked it up.  I had never heard of that term before

Gotta love those German terms...I think that comes from the early 20th century or maybe shortly before, when there were a number of famous and excellent German chess masters of the time.

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Who's move is it in your avatar @Always in Zugzwang?  If it's black's move the game is over and white wins... if its white's move... stalemate

Ahhh, good question!  That's the nature of "zugzwang" (German word that essentially means "obligation to move").  Normally in chess, if it's your move you have the advantage because you then control things to varying degrees.  However, there are situations where having to move will put you in a *worse* board position that would be more advantageous to your opponent!

In the setup I have shown in the avatar...it's mutual zugzwang!  If black is to move, they cannot stop white from queening the pawn (a huge advantage!), and eventually lose.  If white is to move, they must move their king away from protecting the pawn such that black can take it, resulting in a draw...or, move their king directly behind the pawn which results in a stalemate (and thus, in either case, lose the significant advantage of potentially queening the pawn).

I contrast that with a quote I really like from the great player David Bronstein (very colorful personality in how he analyzed and described games!)..."The most powerful weapon in chess is to have the next move!"

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

No doubt it will. I also hope it results in five-posting, since we're at the point at which some people need the hammer dropped by a leaden hand .

This might suffice...

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

DT has weighed in on this weekend:

 

So...he's thinking big dog and not a chihuahua then!! 

25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I lurked for a while and then started participating and yeah, it’s a lot more fun.

I also started out as a weenie and was slapped down a lot lol. Also normal. 

I guess people are here for different reasons but to me it should be fun. When you’re so high after  a D6 Euro run that literally everything else is upsetting because...D6 model runs don’t verify, that’s a problem. When you’re so jaded that you try to bring down a thread by nitpicking everything in a long range model run, that’s a problem too. 

I just wish people were more judicious in their posting. I’d have 100,000 posts if I pressed send on everything I thought. It’s ok to fall back from time to time. 

Same here.  I lurked on the old Eastern US WX Forums in winter of 2008-09, and then finally joined sometime during the great winter of 2009-10.  Then of course it became AmWX the next year.

Overall, it is fun, and more fun to actually participate!  I don't usually add a huge amount to a lot of the analysis/discussion, except to expound on a few things or maybe insert a humorous comment here and there, or ask a question.  Quite frankly, there are many others who have subscriptions and get access to far more data than I do and far more quickly, so I just sit back and read as a model is coming out.  And there are certainly more who are more knowledgeable than what I can offer, and there's no point in me repeating what they say, really.

There are certainly a few or a handful of people who tend to clutter things with downer posts or terrible analysis (not just a one-off or a few times, but consistently!) that it can get frustrating.  I generally try to keep frustration at that to myself (as well as frustration that we all feel when things end up sucking!!).  But sometimes, I do put up a post calling it out...maybe I shouldn't, but in general I try to ignore the "annoyances".  Or I'll make light of it with a little poking fun.  I also like to have fun in the Banter and Panic Room areas, those are really the places to laugh at our failures and get snarky!  Let's face it, the Reaper is an institution now (or should be institutionalized!)!! 

We all want snow.  That's why we're here rooting for yesterday's 12Z Euro to happen! LOL!  Which it won't of course, though some "form" of it might.  But damn, we need a solid area-wide event, you can sometimes cut the tension in here with a knife now after 2 years of almost nothing.

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

We will have group sessions available for those left out. 

Skele-psychiatrists are on duty and on call now in the Panic Room?  They look legit...just like the team of lawyers there! 

2 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

you seem really emotional.

The irony is stunning, I must say! 

Just now, LP08 said:

Happens every storm since the existence of this forum.  There is always that one run of whatever model, and everything else is no good.

Yup...I know, and I'd think by this point I'd be "used to it" or just expect the useless melt-downs.  But, unfortunately, it's still damned frustrating to see page after page of tearing of hair, gnashing of teeth.  I get being nervous, especially around here!!...but come on, people.  Would I love a HECS?  Of freaking course!!  But a decent prospect at ~6-12" solid warning level event would be great if we can manage that.

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I just caught up on the "analysis" in the main thread....that was impossible to follow.

Everyone was all hyped up about the unreal Euro run at 12Z yesterday so now anything looks "bad".  I wonder how the discussion would have gone if the Euro didn't spit out a BECS.  So much mention of a "disaster", but then when you cut through that BS, it's not really that awful at this point, to be honest.  Expectations and all that, I suppose.

22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Doom?

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Please cite where you made ANY prediction at all 

Not only that, but I gotta wonder WTF the mention of vaccines has to do with any of this?!

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Were all the models on board with that one 8 days out?  I am trying to remember.  I do remember some sick snow maps.  But still not the Euro 12z 26 Jan...that was next level 

I distinctly remember checking the discussion and model pbp in here the Saturday afternoon before the storm hit (about 7-8 days out). At that time it was clear a significant storm was in the offing and it seemed like all major models "snapped in place." Thereafter it was a matter of various details... Would it be a top HECS, would we mix for a time etc. But it was clear at least a significant snow event was there. Of course that was a Nino and STJ on roids and a perfectly placed block so the setup was very clear-cut as was the models' handling of that. 

ETA: @Deck Pic pretty well stated it, especially concerning the Euro. I thought the GFS/GEFS did well starting early on too but that could be incorrect recollection on my part. There was also a wacky 00Z Euro run right the night before that cut precip amounts for some reason, which momentarily caused alarm I seem to recall. 

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I remember getting a pack of baseball cards for 20 - 25 cents and it came with gum . Sometimes that was my lunch 

Well, card stock is a good source of fiber. Just hope you didn't consume any of the really valuable cards!

Oh wait, you were referring to having the gum for lunch... I think! 

I think we're a little closer to this one than we were with the Thursday non-event when that started looking good initially.  And I don't think the Thursday thing had as much support as this one (nearly) across the board.

Just now, GATECH said:

Knickerboxer or bust!?  Who’s in?

If this actually happens, you know DCA will record 17.8", everyone else other than DCA will have 24"+. 

Where's the huge Bob Chill stunned face?! 

What an unreal, amazing Euro run there.  I seriously doubt it will be just like that (but we can hope, sure!)...but I'm encouraged by the possibility even if it ends up not as out-there crazy with the totals or how long it stalls just off OC.  Good 12Z suite today, really.  Let's face it, even the lighter amounts in the GFS and CMC give us near or at warning-level snows.  The Para GFSv16 gives a solid 6-12", the UKMET is in that ballpark.  And the Euro on the high end.  Can't much complain about those goal posts, really, at this point.

Anyone offhand have the temperatures through the entire time?

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

The 5 people expecting the big event won't be convinced ever to temper expectations im not really sure what Ralph is doing other than maybe trying to keep himself in check or maybe project out so others can feel his angst. 

I'm hoping we can score a big event of course...as is essentially everyone else here.  But expecting that?  Absolutely not!  Well, unless this continues and we get a lot closer with the same general evolution continuing as such of course.  It's possible to temper expectations without coming across as a downer, too.  Sometimes catching up reading in here, you'd think we lost the storm or it totally sucks when there are several posts that 06Z sucks now, it took our snow away, etc., compared to the previous cycle.  Then the more reasonable posts show that 06Z actually was pretty darned good...just not 20" perhaps!  I mean really, come on!  I don't buy it that anyone "won't be happy" with a 6-10" event as opposed to a 20" HECS vs. nothing (see:  this Thursday's non-event!).  A solid warning-level event that doesn't turn to complete slop would be nice...that's about where my expectations and hopes are...and some hope that we can perhaps maximize the potential for a more memorable event.  Strangely, at this point, I feel a bit more confident about the Sunday-Monday potential, but that's subject to change, LOL!

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Impressive wedge for that range 

PSU...I know I'm coming to this "party" late and referring to an image that's hours old.  But, this one caught my eye for some reason.  Remember showing the 850mb temps for this Thursday's non-event at one point?  There was no real cold air wedge or damming.  It was kind of a flat line through approximately the Ohio valley and east...pretty meh.  My point is, this has a much different, more classical type of look in the loop you show here.  Just something that occurred to me when I saw this.  Of course, not necessarily the final result at this point...but there's better antecedent air among other things.

Light/moderate snow falling.  Grass, cars, and even now paved areas are being coated.  I'd estimate ~0.1-0.2" at this point.  So January officially will not be a shutout...Yay for small victories!!

Light snow around the Chevy Chase area (near the Beltway).  Official car-topper, with grass, mulch, and cars coated!

6 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Bullseye

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Whoa! Looks like @WxUSAF is gonna need a bigger tent! 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Narrator:  yes

Damn!  At least say "SPOILER ALERT" before you give away the plot! 

3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Neither... it crushes us.

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

The primary drives through there and transfers offshore. 0z took way more lps on a visit through Michigan and western New York so that's actually not bad lol. Considering the cold air and CAD signal I guess it's advantageous for us to have it in Ohio/Indiana as PSU mentioned we wanted with the Thursday event. 

Ah, OK...LOL!!!  So you meant "don't look at it" as in a good thing, hahaha!  I just assumed it looked awful but I guess if the ops Euro was not far off from being really good, then the control would have to be at least that much.