Scarlet Pimpernel

The GFS has never really been "enthused" about Sunday.  At most it seems to indicate possibly a squall or snow showers on the leading edge of the strong cold front.

24 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The WORST of the worst. 

The worst of the worst of the worst!  Sir!

(a'la "MIB").

ETA:  Or, for those who are familiar, there's always "The Wurst of P.D.Q. Bach" (with Peter Schickele)!!

2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Looks like 12z GFS is gonna miss on the Sunday threat. 

ETA: ninja'd by jakkel 

Just now, Scraff said:

GFS won’t catch on likely until Thursday. As long as the Euro keep advertising it I’ll be interested...

I think thus far, the past several runs, the GFS has been indicating more of a very strong frontal passage here for Sunday, with the southern low remaining well south.  Haven't seen the GEFS.

I think perhaps one of the best things about this snow event was @Bob Chill's return!  Honestly, last Friday afternoon when he showed up, it's like the mood of this board lightened up.  Almost celebratory.  I'm sure part of that was due to it being a Friday and part of it because the models were looking pretty good around that time.  But mostly, I think a lot of people were just happy to see him come back, sort of signaling that "it's on"!  A certain amount of the sniping and negativity was lifted, at least for awhile.  I also thought his subtle return was amusing, with his "Hey peeps...how much for Rockville?" comment in the storm thread!  At any rate, thanks for that, Bob!

Some good snow rotating through here now (just south of 495/Connecticut Ave.), nice size flakes coming down.  Most of today was sleet with light freezing drizzle, then some fine-grain snow toward mid-afternoon.  Good crust of ice on top of yesterday's snow; it's really slick in places.

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Weird.  This frame looks totally different on pivotal.  There's no precip down by us

You saw that too (on Pivotal)?  It did look a little odd, that level of discrepancy.  I suppose it's whatever algorithm they use for generating that plot, but that's a big difference and I otherwise can't think why it would be so.  But I suppose those details don't really matter...the Euro is the only one (I think?) that blows up the system later this weekend like that; CMC and GFS have a different evolution.

Looks like all major deterministic globals (GFS, CMC, Euro) have that storm around Wednesday of next week (Feb. 10), to varying degrees.  They all originate from the same general area (around the Gulf, or near TX/LA).  The big difference this time is that it doesn't look like we'll be relying upon some kind of lucky or complicated coastal transfer.  Rather, a storm attacking very cold air that will be in place.  Even the extreme solution of the Euro, which takes a bomb up through the Bay, the DC area looks like it's below freezing (changes to sleet or some kind of mix, but who cares about those details right now?).  I haven't seen the ensembles yet, but I would wager they look quite interesting.

ETA:  My bad (sorry!), the bomb storm that goes up through the Bay on the Euro is later this weekend, not the thing next Wednesday.  But everything else is right...all models show something middle of next week.

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs has period of snow sleet Friday morning then Sunday.  I'll take CMC for Sunday. 

CMC similar to the GFS for the weekend with blasting a front through, but actually a little later it appears (more like Sunday night as opposed to earlier in the day).

I'll have what the CMC is smokin' for next Wednesday (Feb. 10)!

24 minutes ago, high risk said:

       This caught my eye too.       This would be a line of heavy snow squalls that caused a disaster on the roads as temps plummeted behind it.    Something like this happened here a few years ago on Valentine's Day 2015.

Yes...just looking at that now, myself.  It definitely looks very much like the event in Feb. 2015 with a couple hours squall followed by a literal blast of cold (2" snow at my place from that).  That is a strikingly similar look, honestly, if it were to play out as shown.

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I see you Herp derp!!

Just now, snowfan said:

We got the herp and graf on our side. Sounds dirty.

Just be sure to avoid HRDPS-ies Simplex 2 when looking at that model!!

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I love those. I've harped on it before but with everything that has happened in the last year, it's good to disconnect, get outside, and just enjoy the beauty that is accessible to us. One of my favorite pictures comes from a tough time...I was just walking along a quiet road when I saw this. I think about it every so often. 

 

Thank you so much!  And that picture you shared is awesome!  Yes, as soul-crushing as this past year has been in many ways, getting out and realizing there is still beauty in the world helps.  I've perhaps taken more photos in the last year than in any other year, to be honest.  It's a hobby of mine to be sure, but with everything else going on now, it's also an escape where I look for things to photograph.  Also has the added effect of helping me improve my technique and vision in that regard, too, LOL!

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah repinning for next weekend

Uh, oh!!  Channeling a combination of yours and @Bob Chill's expressions...it might be on like red horse schlong!! 

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well 18z GFS is on board for something next weekend.  Not like the EUro of course, but it's interesting

Is this the system that the other day looked like a cutter followed by very cold?  Or something else.  I've only lightly followed anything outside today's event until now, really.  But did notice potential interesting stuff around that time next weekend or so.

Right around 3" total to this point.  As @WxUSAF said earlier, it's almost like sand!  I posted a couple photos in the banter thread.

Regardless of how much snow anyone got, it was very pretty and quite peaceful.  Here are a couple of photos I took today, all black-and-white (snow just somehow facilitates itself well to black/white!!)...

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Now THAT is quality slant sticking my man!

The maximum!  Parallel to the surface! 

(ETA:  ooops, originally wrote normal, instead of parallel, to the surface, LOL!)

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure what you’re aiming for, but I definitely don’t hate it. Nice snow for DC and north tomorrow afternoon.

Yeah, was just looking a that.  Whatever it's worth, it shows ~2" in DC, with maybe 2-4" just north of there (MoCo/HoCo, etc.), and more heading toward the M/D line.  This is a 24-h amount from 00Z tonight through 00Z tomorrow night.

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, we got em. Wasn't pretty. 

It never is!  But they gotta do what they gotta do, right?!

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just did the first reaping of the storm. It actually breaks my heart. Solemn duty. 

Seems your extra crew of hired guards was able to nab someone trying to jump early! 

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Funny random story....

When I switched schools in college - I managed to be home in Silver Spring during all three of the biggie storms in 2009-2010. My parent's still claim to this day that I planned my withdrawal process from my first college around the snowstorms  

Hahaha...what timing on your part!!

Just now, Kmlwx said:

My parents and other adults always used to say "you're growing up so fast!" when I was a kid (I feel like all kids hear this...) and I never really understood or saw it. Now being 30 and seeing kids on my parent's street and some of my cousins kids shoot up like bamboo is insane. 

Bob Chill's 6ft kids would tower over me (I'm 5'7") - WHAT IS HE FEEDING THEM?!

It's been a heck of a last year or so...lots of adjusting and "winging it" - hopefully some sense of normalcy will return later this year. 

With how rough the past 12 months or so have been...and with how much last winter sucked...that's why I really am grumbling a bit more than usual at all the hand wringing. Fluffiest snow I've gotten in a while. If it shut off right now it would of course be a disappointment...but it's gorgeous out there. I won't try to force people to see things the Bob Chill/me way - but it sucks that so many people are all down in the dumps about snow. 

Haha!  @Bob Chill's kids would tower over me as well!  My daughter is not even quite 5 feet tall and very slight (no real tall genes in our families, LOL!).  Which is fine.  She actually used to do ballet, for several years (Washington School of Ballet, associated with the Washington Ballet).  But other obligations with school and other interests and such (plus an ankle injury at the time) kind of ended the ballet stuff a couple of years ago.  She still got a hell of a lot out of it, and it was actually a lot of fun for her to participate in the company's Nutcracker a few times.  A lot of work, but still fun!

Last 12 months have been quite rough for sure, for everyone.  But I try to be optimistic about how things will go and that we'll get out of this at some point not too overly long from now.  The snow today is certainly like a balm!  Especially compared to last year.  I enjoy photography, sort of a hobby of mine...it's been awhile since I could get some nice snow-related photos around here!

Eyeballing maybe ~1.5" there about where I'm at (Chevy Chase, MD area).  Light snow falling, clinging to everything right now with the calm wind.  Very pretty!  I will be going for a @Jebman Jebwalk soon, and get some photos!!

By the way, nobody has mentioned much about the wind potential during this event, but looks like it could become pretty brisk?

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Tried to DM you. Clean out yer darn groupie mail!  

Can't believe your youngsters are that old. I'll be 30 later this year and I still feel like a kid sometimes. My metabolism sure tells me I'm not 20 anymore...

Haha, I hear that.  My daughter turned 17 in November and is a senior in HS this year, and I cannot believe how fast that time has gone!  I swear it doesn't seem like that long ago that she was out in a snow suit during the Dec. 2009 storm, with snow up past her waist level!  Not such a little kid anymore, hahaha!  It's just too bad that with COVID, school has been remote this entire year so far (actually going back to March last school year).  I am certainly not complaining about the remote stuff, as I totally get it...but it's just too bad this happens during one's senior year is all.  But you make the best of things!

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Ha.  You already buried me.  This is a post from beyond.  But thanks for the suite upgrade...the towels are soft and the mattress is firm! 

Don't forget to collect your 20% off coupon for next year!!  New promo from the Reaper, I believe.

2 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Interesting...GFS actually doesn't look too bad for Mon-Mon evening just going by the 3 plots you put up here.