Scarlet Pimpernel

Just now, psuhoffman said:

In fairness (dunno until the qpf comes out) I don’t think the rgem is bad it’s just the trend. Big step back from last 2 runs. 

True...the trend is not a nice feeling.  But being honest, the crazy, wacky amounts it was throwing out were not realistic.  Perhaps it's converging to something more sensible?  Well, that's the reasoning I'll cling to for now, haha!  As you said, however, we should see the total precip (and snow) totals to get a better picture on the RGEM.

1 minute ago, Ravens94 said:

That's got to be the most bizarre looking closed contour around a low I've ever seen (992 off the coast)!!

I'm guessing this is how most of us felt about the 00Z NAM (inside, at least!)...

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Right or wrong (probably wrong) the NAM is chasing the convection and taking the secondary way too far OTS. It’s improving slightly each run with that but not enough. You can see the slp ride up the line of convection that fires out over the gulf steam vs tucking in along the coastal front baroclinic zone. 

Not sure what you mean by improving slightly with each run?  I thought the 12Z is when it first went crazy driving the dry slot much farther north than any other guidance, and seems even more so at 18Z.  Not trying to be argumentative at all, but just curious what you meant.  I'm interested too in the whole tracking the low along the convection rather than the coastal baroclinic zone.

2 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

so i was the victim of a hit and run this evening. the guy behind me was mad because i slowed down at a RR crossing and was driving the speed limit (25 MPH) in town. he deliberately rammed me 3 times and when i pulled over, he drove around me and left.

i am totally unharmed. my car, naso much, but it's minor. my car is a tank so he did a lot of damage to the front of his truck. dumbass.

That's awful!  Glad you are OK, but what an asshat that guy was for the hit and run. Not to mention getting upset because you slowed down at a railroad crossing and were *gasp!* going the speed limit.  Glad the damage to your vehicle might not be too horrible too.

All we need now is @showmethesnow and the homecoming of the triumvirate will be complete!

Hello Ian...welcome back!  Omegherd, shneer!! 

3 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

This must be a record or something right?

 

What the hell post was that one from??

ETA:  The one where @Bob Chill returned yesterday afternoon?

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is good stuff.

Ohhh, looks freakin' tasty!!

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

Maybe they injected the vaccine into it leading to a healthy scenario. 

As long as it wasn't bleach...

13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I still don't understand this map I think the potential impact or the confidence could be raised. 

I don't think that's too bad for day 3...which is Monday into Tuesday right now.  That covers what would be the coastal part of the storm.  They have the 2nd level for potential impact, which is reasonable (it could certainly be impactful!).  And the confidence is low...which sure, that makes sense right now, there's a lot of uncertainty for Monday-Tuesday at this point.

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That was a sleet bomb tho no? And very very rare honestly. But you're right, that was a coastal gone wrong in incredibly rare fashion. Personally, i love that storm for what it was. I mean our area was a legitimate glacier for days. 

Yeah, I remember that Feb. 2007 storm and liked it as well.  Admittedly, it was a bit disappointing because for some time it looked like a great widespread 12" or so snow event through the DC area.  But even still, it was fun.  I got ~3" sleet from that and maybe some glaze, and it did indeed turn into a block of ice for some time (it was very cold leading into that storm and then again after).  I think areas just to the east of DC did get an appreciable ice storm from it.

I've said this before, but I also actually liked the winter of 2006-07, though many think it was "meh".  We just missed the Feb. 2007 event being something huge, sure, and it was warm up through about the 3rd week or so of January.  But dayum...February was a frozen tundra!  I think we also got a decent mixed event later in January too, leading into that pattern.  And Feb. 25 was like a 5-6" paste job.  Feb. 2015 (and into early March) was remarkably similar in many ways with the frigid cold, but we maxed out our potential a lot better!

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I also wanted to add 2 more points. Climo is climo for a reason. Latitude, topography, proximity to the coast, and shape of the coastline defines climo. Storms behave in similar fashion for really good reasons. Central PA and N MD get big totals that wouldnt happen in my yard even if the storm went south because orographic influence is powerful. Just like deep creek getting hit with lake effect, C PA and N MD has an extra physical feature to wring out the sponge. I asked my wife if we could buy sugarloaf and move it to my back yard for this reason. She told me it sounds like a great idea if you're legally insane. Well... I am so...

It would be like Vector stealing the Great Pyramid of Giza, placing it in his backyard!!

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z def has a bigger red horse schlong but still not in the right place. Maybe euro will put the schlong in my yard

It looks a little fuller, too. 

Oy Gevalt, RGEM!!

Random question here that I've been meaning to ask for awhile.  What really is the difference between the 10:1 and Kuchera methods?  Well, obviously 10:1 is what it says (and it includes sleet).  But does Kuchera take into account sleet, dryness of the snow, varying ratios over time, etc.?

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s hard to pin for everyone because the rain snow line is moving north then sinking south. But for the DC metro and northern VA this is all snow from the WAA 

and this is snow from the CCB

so far tonight my only qualm for N VA would be the coastal capture is happening a little slower and that risks shifting the CCB northeast of the area if it develops too late.  But that’s always a risk with a miller b. The DC split. 

Thanks, PSU, that's an excellent and clear delineation there.

20 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Beautiful. GFS gives me my foot of snow, doesn't stop snowing til Tuesday afternoon.

 

A little late here on this question, but any indication how that snow is "distributed" between the initial WAA and CCB parts?  Just curious.

Just now, stormtracker said:

RGEM is better than 18z.  Back end love is real.  Flip between the two

OK, well...that's good to see after what the NAM just did.  It's been kind of consistent overall, no?  Not saying it's right, but maybe it's something.  On to the globals now, I guess.

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You and I are on the same page. Also wanted to say that somehow when I quoted this post it added a ''laugh'' reaction and I can't change it because I hit my limit for the day. Weird.

That's weird.  Is there a limit on how many reactions one can give in a certain amount of time?  Didn't realize that.  Or a limit on how many times you can change it?

Just now, mattie g said:

What an incredible year...especially the couple weeks from when we reeled that late-January storm north through February 10. Crazy shite.

That 12-day stretch (Jan. 30-Feb. 10) was unreal.  Four warning-level events, two of which were HECS-level (Jan. 30, Feb. 2, Feb. 5-6, Feb. 9-10).  The most concentrated amount of snow in such a period that I've ever experienced.

7 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

my second call is the same as my first: 

Ha!  All you need is to label everything with lettered regions that incoherently overlap with each other! 

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hey peeps. Let me clear the air first. I never intended to stay offline here this long. It just happened. However, last couple years lost their luster for me meaning I stopped having fun here. That's a me problem tho. Y'all do you forever. Thing is, I'm pretty damn busy with real life basically always. This place is a time suck and a half. Then add it all the hours spent staring at maps/charts/graphs/blah blah blah and I realized that I'm absolutely not using my own potential to do big things in life. So ALL that energy and analysis that I traded off here I put to work somewhere else and it was the smartest decision of my life. 

Nobody will like to hear this but I've become disinterested in long range tracking. Too much self induced stress/work for basically nothing in return for years at a time. I became a square peg and this game is a circle hole. Also a circle jerk but that's a different topic alltogether. I haven't tracked jack shit all year. I knew it was a nina and that's all I needed to know. If it happens great and if not I have more important stuff to do. But...... but................. BUT.......... IT"S FOOKIN HAPPENING. BOOM.

I'm here for jokes and obs and entertainment. I really don't care nearly as much what any model says cuz wx gon wx and it doesn't give AF about our feelings. Nice to see a blocked coastal in a nina though. That's a bonus check and a half. 

Totally can understand where you're coming from, Bob, and I think we can all respect that.  Regardless of how much you want to say or analyze or report...your input here is always welcome at any level!  Thanks for all the insight over the years, I really learned a lot just by reading, and I have always liked your attitude regardless of how bad or good our snow chances were.

And HELL YEAHHHH...it's FOOKIN' happening!   (required disclaimer:  I hope so, anyhow, LOL!!)

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Even the Reaper is getting all misty-eyed at the return of @Bob Chill!!