Scarlet Pimpernel

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It seems like PSU is the mood ring of the storm thread.  If he's happy about model runs, thats the general consensus.  If he's panic'd about suppression, the mood follows.  

It's because he's very knowledgeable.  I don't say that to be snarky, it's just true.  When someone of his level of understanding gets nervous, it tends to affect what everyone else might think.  If the typical weenies freak out, it's easier to "ignore" that panic.  The other end of the scale sort of might be someone like Bob Chill.  Very knowledgeable as well.  But he was a lot more "Zen", and though he of course wanted his yard to jackpot (we all want ours to do so, LOL!), he was always of the "chips fall" attitude, as he would say.  He usually would say stuff like "well, Mappy and PSU land will do well with this event, but I'll be fine with my 2" slush brick here in MoCo" or something like that.  I'm sure he'd be disappointed inside, but rarely "let it out" unless he was being obviously humorous.  I don't think I've seen a time that he ever "melted down."

12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

OK, that's a little bit creepy looking, I have to admit!  But funny too!!

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I'm up to 78 and it looks great so far

How's it look compared to 18Z?  I'm only on TT and it's not out too far there yet.

Just now, stormtracker said:

Am I missing something?  I was under the impression that the NAM was a disaster and then I go look at it and I'm like...huh?

I think it looks better for the WAA front end going by the discussion here (though sleet later in the DC area)...but it's the uncertainty of the coastal that looks slower to get going through its run.  I think it was faster on the transfer the previous cycle or two, for what it's worth.

Just now, Rhino16 said:

Just curious, as someone who wants to learn...

Where did everyone get all of their knowledge from? I assume just a long time of exposure to it allows you to learn, and not skipping an opportunity to learn something new helps? Is there anything that would help immediately to learn a bit more other than listen?

Well, I got my degree (undergrad and grad) in meteorology, though not a forecaster per se.  That's where a lot of my background synoptic and other related knowledge comes from.  But beyond that, just reading in here (and other places), you learn the tendencies of how things work in this area.  There are a lot of good posters on here, even if you have to filter out some of the BS posts.  Pretty much any of the local "red tagger" mets in here have a plethora of great information and insight.  But even those who are not technically "red tags", like @psuhoffman, @showmethesnow, @Bob Chill among others are great (though showme and Bob haven't been around here in some time, unfortunately).  Really just reading a lot in this forum (and living here long enough) in a lot of ways helps.  I learned an immense amount just by doing that, honestly.

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Here you go for that ICON analysis

Dammit, man!  For half a second I was wondering WTF happened to my cursor!!

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Next up:  Hot ICON takes

I initially read that really fast and thought it said HOT PANCAKES!!  (mmmmm!) 

37 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

lol.

Sorry.  I'm usually better than that.  And now I can't stop singing "Rock the Casbah."

So now that you put that ear-worm in, here ya go!!!

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I extrapolated the 84hr NAM another 60hrs and it gives me 20" and you 25".  So we good.  

So you basically did a mental DGEX there.

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

The old 3:30pm update. Back in the day before the Internet took off, you'd run home from the bus stop and flip on the Local on the 8s and anxiously wait for the watch to pop up on the crawl.

...And then sit there watching the 6PM and 11PM local news and weather (annoying your parents in the process), looking at the crawler of school closures, hoping yours would be listed!! 

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

PSU still worrying about suppression lol

For some reason, this made me think of the Monty Python "Holy Grail" scene where the peasant is shouting "Help, I'm being repressed!!"

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

If the euro comes out as slowly as the GGEM or para today, I’m flying to Europe to get it direct from the source. Get on with it!!

C'mon...you know those Europeans!  4 hours of work and then time to hit the pub!! 

Wait...that sounds perfectly acceptable to me actually!!

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Quite a marked change from 00Z, I believe?

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Train left the station on that one Euro run. You can hop on when it makes its next stop at ~1:15pm today. 

 

"Mind the Gap!!" 

(ETA:  Anyone familiar with the London Underground will get that!)

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

what did I just write?  Praise for a hot dog subway?

Sounds like you were channeling @ravensrule!!

3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

I guess this would qualify as banter..

Who else was alive and remembers the Challenger explosion 35 years ago today? I was 15, living in Springfield VA. Aside from the trajedy that day, another indelible memory for me was a Nor'easter that was to never be that weekend for us in the mid Atlantic.  Cold and dry, with any development well off the coast. Not sure which model was pummeling our area with heavy snow... NBM perhaps? 

Imagine if thiis forum was around 30-40 years ago with the state of NWP back then? Lots of broken hearts for sure!

Wow, I remember the Challenger explosion and just being transfixed by the news.  I wasn't paying much attention to the weather out this way, as at the time I was in college at Purdue when this happened.  My freshman year.

2 minutes ago, rclab said:

To many of us, the Fava beans were more frightening. As always ......

Yeah that was a very intense scene.  I read that when Anthony Hopkins delivered that line and then made the "ts-ts-ts-ts" sound with his tongue (sort of on the spot, not planned), that Jodi Foster gave a sort of frightened/stunned start!

2 hours ago, H2O said:

Wrong thread.  But as i was saying, the only tucking I want to have happen from this day forward isn't a low pressure off the coast but me doing the Buffalo Bill dance from silence of the lambs

 

Its rubs the lotion on the skin or it gets the primary into OH again.

Fava beans...and a nice chianti!!

LOL at the "Silence of the Lambs" reference...great movie (if chilling)!

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yup. My lead forecaster in college said, "WAA snow waits for no man."

Still the best example of this in my experience is Feb. 2003 PD-II.  That came in like a wall of snow.  The other big ones since have been similar, starting up quickly, but PD-II was the most dramatic.

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Deform band signature right through our region clear as day. Definitely Jan ‘16 vibes.

Careful...this is a family-friendly discussion board! 

But seriously, that is a nice signature and a nice amount of QPF for the mean.  The thermals seem a bit tough for DC east/south at least for a time (as always??), but the progression of the 06Z EPS sure looks great.

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Not WW but 

Looks like it includes the MoCo @Bob Chill and HoCo @WxUSAF jackpot zones in there, too (higher probabilities)! 

Just now, stormtracker said:

As long as the Euro/CMC combo hold, I'm not going to fret about the GFS being stubborn.  Now if one of those others move, then yeah....

Yeah, I'm kind of in this camp of thinking right now.  Can't fret too much.  But it is stubbornly consistent which is concerning (annoying?)...and don't much like seeing the light rain/drizzle from about Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, essentially.  We'll see how things evolve.

6 minutes ago, benjammin said:

Usually though it's not just a move that worsens your position but that directly leads to a loss hence my saying it's black to move.

Here's another fun German term.The zwischenzug (German: pronounced [ˈtsvɪʃənˌtsuːk] "intermediate move") is a chess tactic in which a player, instead of playing the expected move (commonly a recapture ), first interposes another move posing an immediate threat that the opponent must answer, and only then plays the expected move (Hooper & Whyld 1992

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk
 

Ahh, yes!  That's another great term!!!  And a way to gain a greater advantage.

ETA:  And true about zugzwang, it can also mean a move that would immediately lead to the player making that move losing.

Just now, yoda said:

Are you on chess.com?  I haven't played on there in a while... but maybe we could get a game going?  If you want to that is  

Haven't gotten on there but yeah, I might be up for a game when I have a chance!  Definitely consider that!!

BTW, if you're into reading about chess, I'd recommend "The Sorcerer's Apprentice" by David Bronstein.  Chess books and analysis are normally dry and dull, but this one has a lot of colorful description and wit.  And it is semi-autobiographical about Bronstein himself, he had a rather remarkable career and life in many ways, despite being under the old Soviet regime and not exactly their "favorite".