Scarlet Pimpernel

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t ask questions you won’t like the answer too. 

Haha!  Well, I can guess.  Those were just a couple of examples off the top of my head that were "marginal", and was wondering how they would have turned out in the current environment.  I would wager the result wouldn't have been so good.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember at PSU in the late 90s when we had model diagnostic discussions in the weather station with Jon Nese and he didn’t trust that “new ETA model” and relied on the NGM. Then twice in a row the ETA schooled him/it and he changed his tune lol. Now I feel super old. 

Don't worry...I recall the old Eta model...and actually using the NGM while working at a private forecasting company many years ago!!

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Let’s avoid the cause debate. It gets ugly and no one is changing anyone’s mind because nowadays everyone just dismisses things they don’t agree with anyways. So why risk upsetting people and killing relationships on here. But we have thermometers in lots of places and they aren’t all urban. We can confirm it’s getting warmer and it’s not all a result of the UHI.  We don’t have to debate why or whose fault it is to talk about the effects on the weather which is what we’re all here for. The politics can go somewhere else. 

Thanks for your comments in here and in the main discussion threads on this subject and the overall trends, @psuhoffman.  You've been very restrained in not getting too much into the "political" argument about whatever warming has been occurring or why, which is admirable.  Though I can pretty well guess where you stand on that argument, and I'm of the same opinion just to put that out there (assuming I'm correct in my assumption on your stance...will leave it at that, though!).  Agree with your thoughts too on why there is actually (paradoxically?) a relative increase in the "big dog" storms even as the environment in general is warming...more energy, and if you're lucky enough to have the right temperature profile, you'll get hammered with a big snow.  Places far enough north or high enough in elevation would benefit the most as you say, from such storms.

It is disheartening to see the trends of marginal events over time though, especially for places that are already geographically "on the edge" (like DC, or I guess you could say 40 degrees and south in general).  Even just in the past couple of decades (length of time I've been in this area), I think I've observed it.  Some of that could be bad luck in some seasons, but I think some is also the general trend.  I wonder what the Jan. 2011 event (your PSU storm!) would have done in this year's climate, for instance.  That really was kind of marginal, at least in and around the DC area.  Where I'm located, it was at or a tad above freezing through the event pretty much, but it was pounding snow (8" in about 5 hours!).  Very heavy, very wet, and you could practically hear some of it running off and melting almost right after the snow stopped (it then turned into a brick overnight).  Would that be mostly rain in the current environment, specifically this year...just 10 years later now?  That's just one example.  Another is...remember the late Feb. 2007 event (Feb. 25 sticks in my mind for the date)?  Nearly isothermal sounding from the surface up through the boundary layer and right near freezing.  We were forecast to get ice/sleet mostly from that, but we ended up with heavy snow for awhile, like 5-6", followed by some light drizzle after it ended.  It stuck to everything.  I wonder what that would have done now?

Just now, stormtracker said:

I need MINIMUM triple digits for me to be interested.   If snow totals aren't the equivalent of the price of a used '09 VW Passat, I'm out.

Would that even make double digits?? 

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe I'm missing something, but this is barely even double digits, if that, for most. Would not call it a crush job. It needs to stay tucked more NW so it snows much longer. Duration is just too short. It's trying to get there, though.

Well I guess relatively speaking most anything this year is a "crush job"!!  And yeah, it is sort of getting there.  But the thing is, comparing to the 12Z GFS this is a notable shift north with the precipitation and snow, from what I see.  We were on the very northern edge of any real snow then, it was close (and everyone was all excited at that trend at 12Z).  It appears to have trended that way through all of today's cycles.  Besides, it's far better than the huge letdown the Euro and EPS gave us this afternoon!

8 minutes ago, H2O said:

One day you will type H2O bullseye and not HoCo

To go full-on chemical geek, I guess he should have typed in "HCO2" there for Howard County!!

1 minute ago, Ji said:

.67 mile north shift an hour!

Is it even possible to drive that fast on I-95?? 

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Momma had to give the forum a bath? Lol

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

Sorta. Valid points were made and I took action to correct the issue.  

Lifebuoy to the rescue! 

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hear ya...which is why I said "I hope", lol

Just now, mappy said:

lol dont know if this is a serious question, but i will give a serious answer

January storm threat is short range, less than 7 days

January long range is long range, more than 7 days

January 25th is for the threat on Monday

So anything between the 25th-28th should be in the storm threat thread.

That's a pretty good way to describe it I think.  Shorter vs. medium/long range threads, and specific dated events that have real potential (e.g., Jan. 25).  I'd assume that if the Jan. 29 system continues to look real, we'll have a dated thread for that one, too.

27 minutes ago, H2O said:

here's my etch a sketch reply to this post

 

Is that the equivalent of "Shut up, Chuck!"??

Just now, snowfan said:

We excel at being organized. So should we use the January storm threat, January LR, or Jan 25th thread?

We need another thread titled "The Gap between the January 25th and January 28th Threats and  Potential Threats Beyond the 28th but Not Quite Really Long Range".  That ought to clear things up, LOL!! 

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Ha ha ... I get the NAM IS BAD MEME but I'm serious about it getting the gradient right in December. And met-taggers discussion that it did well versus the globals

LOL, I know, was just making the stereotypical joke about the NAM there!  In all seriousness, I do recall some discussion about that December event and the NAM's relatively good performance (with the thermals?).  Of course everyone jokes about the NAM beyond about 48 hours, but it's not terrible when you get closer to "go" time (36-48 hours and before).  Certainly for the thermal profiles.  I've also heard the NAM nests are superior to the parent 12km grid.

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Unfortunately it's para-lyzed

Another good (bad??) pun, to go with your "fret" one the other day!!  That one made you a Guitar Hero!! 

Well done on the parallel GFS pun!  Perhaps it's engaging in para-normal activity too? 

1 minute ago, toolsheds said:

Since we are all nostalgic....I remember seeing Star Wars in the movie theater in 1976....

You must have seen an early release then, as it came out in 1977!!

ETA:  'd by @benjammin!  But I also remember seeing that in the theaters when it came out!

16 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Something to watch out for on the Euro/EPS. The GEFS/GFS are insistent on making snow fly on the backend, meanwhile the Euro does the exact opposite. Wonder which caves to which. 

 

That is an interesting development for sure...mix/ice to snow.  Not sure if that's shown up in previous model cycles before this?

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Does anyone else remember the NAM doing pretty well ...

No. 

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I remember the US beating the Soviets in hockey in 1980.

Thats exactly how dare the NAM being right was.

Yup...Al Michaels with the "Do you believe in miracles?"

55 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not quite my style...

But THIS is!!!  Musical mayhem would be my specialty! That would really give him something to fret about *ba-dum pssh*

Ha, touche! As a connoisseur of puns, I appreciate this! 

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dude if you complain about that so help me!!!! Lol

*In mobster voice* "That's a real nice guitar...it would be a shame if somethin' happened to it..."

Are you saying @Ji might wake up one morning and find a guitar head under the sheets?? 

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

the upper level charts for the Pus storm week look really good

The "Pus" storm?? 

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS is a joke. Flopping every which way every run. Even the GEFS ar 6z were going toward the euro. I bet the 12z GEFS won't support the op.

Yes, I'll be interested to see if the ensembles continue their trend from the 06Z GEFS...or if they "flip back" to more supporting the ops GFS.

26 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Close hit on the German model. Scheisse!

Sometimes, it's a fine line between Schnee and Scheisse!

Well...it will be interesting to see what the GEFS ensembles say, and whether the Euro/Canadian hold on with their idea.

20 minutes ago, mappy said:

gonna start calling you Nostradamus 

If he's wrong about snow and cold, should we call him Nostradammit?? 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  Completely falls apart just when it gets to us.   This winter man...

ETA:  There's somebody behind it, but F that noise.  

It's like that corollary to Murphy's Law:  you can't win, you can't break even, you can't even quit the game!  Kinda how it feels.  But...let's see how things go over the next few days I guess.  Seems overall to be a better evolution than a near-full latitude ridge.