Scarlet Pimpernel

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Narrator:  yes

Damn!  At least say "SPOILER ALERT" before you give away the plot! 

3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Neither... it crushes us.

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

The primary drives through there and transfers offshore. 0z took way more lps on a visit through Michigan and western New York so that's actually not bad lol. Considering the cold air and CAD signal I guess it's advantageous for us to have it in Ohio/Indiana as PSU mentioned we wanted with the Thursday event. 

Ah, OK...LOL!!!  So you meant "don't look at it" as in a good thing, hahaha!  I just assumed it looked awful but I guess if the ops Euro was not far off from being really good, then the control would have to be at least that much.

10 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Some good hits in this mean.. still favors NW but given the seasonal trends we're in a good spot this far out

 

Lp cluster 

Don't look at the Euro control lol

Why, is it one of the ones in Michigan or Ohio?? 

ETA:  Or, one of those that's way offshore!

So it now appears that Sunday is the new Thursday? 

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Thankfully the Euro should swoop in here momentarily to kill hope.  Hope is a dangerous thing.

Thank you, Red! 

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

  Best movie ever, but I'm going down with the ship.  Get busy living, or get busy dying.

Yes, "Shawshank" is one of my favorites, have seen it many times!!

2 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

I agree with the sentiment.  One solid hit without precip issues would be nice.  Not going to be picky.  Lets bring home the "Losetoa Storm" 

Just hope we don't have the "Losestormtoa" storm! 

14 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol nope. i live up to my name by making maps for a living, so when i say i'm distracted by too many maps, i mean that 

LOL!!  I hope you are doing well, friend, with everything going on!  I don't expect much here where I'm at in terms of snow, but at least it might be interesting and a little bit wintry-looking!

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

hows it up here? have two reports going out at work this week so a bit distracted by far too many maps

Does this have a double meaning?? 

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Well sorry, I agree (it’s not discounting). I should have clarified he’s saying the verbatim output for 10-1 maps and face value is pretty unlikely! Sorry @high risk!

No worries, I kind of thought you probably didn't intend for it to come out quite that way.  Regardless, even an inch or two with some sleet is making this a lot more interesting than I thought a day ago!

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Well I mean @high risk works in NWP is sorta saying to discount it, so hard to give it weight. 

That's not really what he's doing here (though you may not have intended it to come across that way)...

9 minutes ago, high risk said:

Use the NAM nest, and use the snow depth or Ferrier product for an event like this.    Shows the idea of a 1-2" event from northern Loudoun across Montgomery and Howard into Baltimore which matches the HRRR nicely.

This doesn't mean "discount the NAM", it simply states don't use the ridiculous 10:1 snow maps when we're looking at not all snow in a marginal setup, but to use the other algorithms instead for this situation (and to use the  3-km NAM nest).

'd by @high risk himself, LOL!

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Brady v. Mahomes is going to be awesome.

High scoring shootout, perhaps??  Sure would look like it.

15 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Just now, stormtracker said:

We got nothing else.  F*** it, might as well pretend we're on a snowstorm eve.   Well for the next hour.  THe RGEM, GFS and even ICON will come in with 2 sleet pellets and a flake for the cumulative total of the storm.

And don't forget the Euro then coming in with precip amounts that would shame a desert.

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I know, right?!  Dafuq is the NAM trying to do here?? 

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I take good care of my reaped souls. Thank you for your business and the kind Yelp review. 

The Reaper is on Yelp now?  Maybe you can take AAA discounts too...

And @WxWatcher007, agree with your comments about disappointment (over snow failures) and managing that.  Can't deny how frustrating this year has been of course, and I truly wish we could get a decent warning-level criteria event.  That would be fun.  But in the end, really, what does it all matter how much we do or don't get (other than concerns about long term climate stuff, which we won't get into here!)?  I've had my share of personal and other issues, not to mention just how awful 2020 was in general for any number of reasons outside that.  But I also try to find some of the beauty in the world via my photography hobby.  One thing about this last year, I've probably taken more photos than I had in any other year just because I'm "looking" more and some things catch my eye.  Beyond that, of course, are the people in one's life that you care about.

Anyhow, sorry to get too philosophical here on a weather board, but just wanted to throw that out there!

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I just love it when people say they “know” what is going to happen.

No you don’t. So stop saying it.

I know there are people who say they know what's going to happen! 

Good evening, snow weenies!  I await your arrival so I can crush your dreams in about an hour and three quarters!! 

Just now, Amped said:

The  deepening rates models have been consistently showing with this storm are insane. 

994-976mb in 6 hrs.

1005 to 967mb in 18hrs.

Could be a little brisk later Thursday if that ends up being correct.

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

No way this misses.

 

I was going to say "bite thy tongue!" given how many times someone has said that too early and then *poof* it goes to hell...but just maybe we'll be OK!

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

GFS still wants no part in any type of front end snow thump.  I’d side with the Euro/NAM thermals at this range though IMO.

Gfs is broken bro. It can't even give us snow with a 981 at Hatteras and cad lol

We get April-style CAD in late January now, don't ya know!! 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t ask questions you won’t like the answer too. 

Haha!  Well, I can guess.  Those were just a couple of examples off the top of my head that were "marginal", and was wondering how they would have turned out in the current environment.  I would wager the result wouldn't have been so good.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember at PSU in the late 90s when we had model diagnostic discussions in the weather station with Jon Nese and he didn’t trust that “new ETA model” and relied on the NGM. Then twice in a row the ETA schooled him/it and he changed his tune lol. Now I feel super old. 

Don't worry...I recall the old Eta model...and actually using the NGM while working at a private forecasting company many years ago!!

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Let’s avoid the cause debate. It gets ugly and no one is changing anyone’s mind because nowadays everyone just dismisses things they don’t agree with anyways. So why risk upsetting people and killing relationships on here. But we have thermometers in lots of places and they aren’t all urban. We can confirm it’s getting warmer and it’s not all a result of the UHI.  We don’t have to debate why or whose fault it is to talk about the effects on the weather which is what we’re all here for. The politics can go somewhere else. 

Thanks for your comments in here and in the main discussion threads on this subject and the overall trends, @psuhoffman.  You've been very restrained in not getting too much into the "political" argument about whatever warming has been occurring or why, which is admirable.  Though I can pretty well guess where you stand on that argument, and I'm of the same opinion just to put that out there (assuming I'm correct in my assumption on your stance...will leave it at that, though!).  Agree with your thoughts too on why there is actually (paradoxically?) a relative increase in the "big dog" storms even as the environment in general is warming...more energy, and if you're lucky enough to have the right temperature profile, you'll get hammered with a big snow.  Places far enough north or high enough in elevation would benefit the most as you say, from such storms.

It is disheartening to see the trends of marginal events over time though, especially for places that are already geographically "on the edge" (like DC, or I guess you could say 40 degrees and south in general).  Even just in the past couple of decades (length of time I've been in this area), I think I've observed it.  Some of that could be bad luck in some seasons, but I think some is also the general trend.  I wonder what the Jan. 2011 event (your PSU storm!) would have done in this year's climate, for instance.  That really was kind of marginal, at least in and around the DC area.  Where I'm located, it was at or a tad above freezing through the event pretty much, but it was pounding snow (8" in about 5 hours!).  Very heavy, very wet, and you could practically hear some of it running off and melting almost right after the snow stopped (it then turned into a brick overnight).  Would that be mostly rain in the current environment, specifically this year...just 10 years later now?  That's just one example.  Another is...remember the late Feb. 2007 event (Feb. 25 sticks in my mind for the date)?  Nearly isothermal sounding from the surface up through the boundary layer and right near freezing.  We were forecast to get ice/sleet mostly from that, but we ended up with heavy snow for awhile, like 5-6", followed by some light drizzle after it ended.  It stuck to everything.  I wonder what that would have done now?

Just now, stormtracker said:

I need MINIMUM triple digits for me to be interested.   If snow totals aren't the equivalent of the price of a used '09 VW Passat, I'm out.

Would that even make double digits?? 

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe I'm missing something, but this is barely even double digits, if that, for most. Would not call it a crush job. It needs to stay tucked more NW so it snows much longer. Duration is just too short. It's trying to get there, though.

Well I guess relatively speaking most anything this year is a "crush job"!!  And yeah, it is sort of getting there.  But the thing is, comparing to the 12Z GFS this is a notable shift north with the precipitation and snow, from what I see.  We were on the very northern edge of any real snow then, it was close (and everyone was all excited at that trend at 12Z).  It appears to have trended that way through all of today's cycles.  Besides, it's far better than the huge letdown the Euro and EPS gave us this afternoon!