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Scarlet Pimpernel

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Posts posted by Scarlet Pimpernel

    February Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Please...this has nothing to do with NEED... this is WANT!!!  I WANT snow. All the snow all the time. SNOW SNOW SNOW.  Give me snow. Then I want more snow. And top it off with a side of snow. Then I’ll have a little snow for desert. I want flakes the size of cars that leave craters!  I want to need tunnels to get to my door.  
     

    I try to be selfless and empathetic as much as I can in my life. I try to do things to give back. But with snow I am a selfish SOB. I want all the snow and I want it now!  

    When it comes to snow, we're all a little like Veruca Salt!

    Image result for veruca salt i want it now gif

    • Like 1
    • Haha 3

    Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, psuhoffman said:

    First part is 100%. Second not. I don’t want anyone to feel any sort of way. That’s nun my business.  But I do feel the way I do. I’m a big game Hunter. Everyone knows that. I do like snow. I’ll take 2” if that’s all I can get.  But I don’t really track for that.  And frankly when it’s late in a season like this I become even more so.
     

    I’ll root hard for a 2-4” snow around Xmas for example. By mid Feb I’m fully in go big or go home mode.  I’m not hunting squirrels. I’m hunting 12 foot grizzly bears and 5 point white elk with antlers that won’t fit through my door!   That’s just me. 

    Glad someone got my snark. Of course I don’t expect the big solutions. But every major global is spitting out 6”+ so obviously it’s an option so that’s what I’m rooting for. Dunno why we shouldn’t!  It’s like with the Eagles. For most of my 42 years I’ve fully expected them to disappoint me. But I’m still there with my brother and cousin screaming expletives that would make a sailor blush when they F up. Just because I expected the fail doesn’t mean I wasn’t rooting to be pleasantly surprised!  Snow is the same. And I don’t need every storm to hit. I know we don’t get that many big events. I’m ok with that. I’m ok when they fail. You don’t see me throwing fits during or after a fail. But when we’re tracking hell yea I want to see guidance trend towards 20”/hr rates with flakes the size of cars that will crush you if they land on you. I’m not a settle kind of guy.  But no issue with others who have different opinions on snow. 

    Dude, I'm from Cleveland and have survived The Drive and The Fumble, The Shot, etc.  LOL!!!  Not to mention 2 extra inning Game 7 World Series losses (don't even mention 2016 or 1997 to me, please!).  So I know what you mean hahahaha!  At least you got a SB victory against the evil empire...I mean, New England Patriots!  But I still savor the Cavs win in 2016...

    Anyhow, on topic.  Yes, we all sure are rooting for the 6"+, don't get me wrong.  I'm not expecting it, but I like seeing that.  Mostly, I like seeing the colder and less rainy solutions.  And given how measured your comments usually are, I could definitely tell you were being mostly snarky in your comment!

    Oh, and what do nuns have to do with this? :lol:

    • Like 2

    Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, Bob Chill said:

    That's most likely a factor of the colder/more confluent flow run over run change. That acts as a better defense against the bull rush with precip/warm air so it shouldnt be a surprise. Models are prob too juicy as they have been at this range quite often. However, at 72hr leads, having things shunt souther/colder could not be more welcome for our are. At least to me anyways. Warm fail crew shift will prob get replaced by suppression fail crew shift. I'm an entrepreneur and my own boss so my crew like where my yard is. 

    Maybe we just put a little extra in that night deposit bag just in case!

    • Haha 1

    Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

    @Ji pretty wild DCs biggest snow of the year might come from a storm which was originally pegged to be practically a cutter in the medium-long range by the GFS. You almost never see those types of storms trend this way lol. This winter is goofy

    Yeah, maybe not even 2 days ago this was all but a washout rain event that I more or less gave up even considering for anything much wintry (snow or sleet/ice).  I'm honestly surprised at the changes, to be honest.

    Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

    Here's where I think the disconnect between you and leesburg today is rooted. A few short days ago this was an abject failure and barely discussion worthy. Globals quickly and unexpectedly set the hook with arguably too bullish of snow solutions with front end. It's fun to consider but I think everyone knows high end results are full of peril. Plenty of people have said as much. But when the nam did what it did at 12z, you drilled down to the subatomic level of why it might be right and why we should seriously worry. Well, we're all appropriately worried already imo and just having some fun. But man PSU, you really sunk the nail this AM with nam analysis. And now with my quoted post it's either high end results or bust. And that's totally fine and you have every damn right on earth and venus to feel such a way. Just don't expect us all to feel the same away about it. It does have the feel that your goal may be that. Maybe I'm out to lunch and I probably am but my read of the room comes to that conclusion.

    Yeah, this.  I can't believe that anyone seriously believes or is seriously looking for, an area-wide 6-12" event, especially in the metro DC area (I suspect PSU is being a little snarky with his comment, too).  Fun to talk about or even get a little excited at the prospect, sure.  Of course, if the models continue throwing that at us even as it's on our doorstep, then sure.  But that aside, a solid thump of snow would be great.  I don't mind that it will mix or change to sleet and ice, and completely expect that in this situation.  My hope is that we can minimize (or even eliminate?) warming up and then getting dumped on with rain.

    February Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

    NAM is the ice storm we do not want. Still on its own I think, but not where we want it! We need the  consensus.. we do not have  it yet!

     

    The NAM is an ice storm

    We shall not want.

    It maketh us slip and fall down

    In green pastures...

    • Like 1
    • Haha 5

    February Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    You would dishonor the Lord High Executioner’s establishment with a Five Guys? Whataburger up in here.

    Five Guys is considered an insult??  Say it ain't so!!  What about Fuddrucker's, then?? :lol:

    (Though I'm actually partial to Daug Haus in Bethesda, good brats and burgers!!)

    Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, high risk said:

              Yeah, it doesn't have a systematic cold bias overall, but it can run a bit cold in terms of trying to cool columns in marginal winter events with strong lift.     It's also worth noting that it can overdo the strength of the warm nose, usually by cranking up and veering the flow too much between 850 and 700.

               I know we're all looking for reasons to toss its solution that really minimizes the front end thump of snow Thursday.     While it's justifiable to note several times this winter when it has sniffed out some important trends, the NAM feels like a bit of synoptic outlier right now, although I would absolutely not put any money on that.  

    Thanks, that makes sense.  I'm certainly not discounting the NAM solution out-of-hand at this point.  Thing is, as @Bob Chill mentioned, only a couple or so days ago this was looking like all but a straight-up rainstorm for much of the area, and it's now trended better, apparently (for wintry type precip).  In fact, before this initially fell apart a few days ago, I don't even recall the Thursday event being looked at as snow per se anyhow.  The indications were that Tuesday and Thursday could be significant icing events earlier on.  That there's now even a chance for some kind of snow before a flip to sleet/ice (or whatever) is a big change in the past couple of days.

    February Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

    I'm still laughing at tracker's burger post. I've gone back to it like 5 times today just to chuckle. Most well crafted humor post of all of my 15+ years here. God knows I've seen a lot of funny things over that time too. 

    It was a true masterpiece! Exquisite work of poetic art! Worthy of saving. 

    Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, stormtracker said:

    I mean, its plenty cold, just going by the old rule that heavier rates aren't as "good" for accretion.  Lot of that could just run off if it's super heavy.  I dunno.  We might wanna ask one of those guys with the red tags to be sure.

    Yeah, not sure what the precise interplay is between temperatures and rates for ideal accretion, when below freezing.  I'm sure the thermodynamics is a bit complicated when we start talking about those details.  Of course, if it were 15 degrees and pouring rain, that would presumably be different than, say, 31 and doing the same.

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