Scarlet Pimpernel

51 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Narrator:  It is

Ha!  That's what the subtitles said, too, in various languages.

Ten years ago today...the 2nd big storm in less than a week!  Of the many photos I took that season, this is my favorite (and perhaps epitomizes that winter):

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB EPS at the end of run.  At least the SE ridge is breaking down.  NAO going to neutral perhaps.  Not sure about the Pacific but if you loop it to the end signs the AK vortex is weakening.  I have not given up on March yet.

Whew!  That oughtta save us from 90s in March at least!!

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I did a nice trail ride in the lake frank / meadowside area yesterday. Learned I was a little out of shape tho... Felt like an athlete when I got home followed by feeling like a 70 year old when I woke up today... LoL

Doesn't take long to get back in shape. A couple weeks of riding 3-4 times per week. Need this fookin rain to knock it off first

Haha!  Man, I hear you there!  Feel great and in shape at the time, but then the next morning it's like "what the hell did I do to myself?!?!"  Not the same like many years ago where I could ride like there's no tomorrow and be completely fine!  It's like the softball tournament in this alumni league I play for.  It's a helluva lot of fun, and I can get up at 5AM Saturday for our 1st game (at 7AM!).  But by 5PM at the end of the day, holy sh*t do I feel awful!  And then have another game or two the next day!  Of course, this past summer, I couldn't play in the tourney due to a broken finger (from an earlier regular season game!), which I still had a pin in place before being removed.  But I still got up early to watch and participate.  And by "participate", I mean drink beer and eat food all day!!  And take photos.  It was still a lot of fun anyhow, though I was unable to play!

16 minutes ago, RDM said:

Darn - No rest for the weary with what you and the other mods deal with.  Damned if you do and same if you don't.  Once the cat is out of the bag it's hard to get it back in there...   

Reminds me of an old "Far Side" cartoon, where this guy is in hell looking at two doors:  one says "damned if you do", the other says "damned if you don't".  The devil is prodding him saying something like "C'mon, c'mon, it's one or the other!!"

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It was awesome and kind of annoying. Warm enough to sweat good on the long climbs on the trails but coming down the other side was cold AF. Sweat, shade, 47 degrees and 15mph breeze = uncomfortable. Still had lots of fun but got a couple ice cream headaches 

That does sound awesome!  I agree, the warm/cold aspect when it's like this can be a bit annoying.  I usually don't much care to get out on the bike if it's like in the 40s and cloudy, especially if it's breezy.  Today would have been OK for sure.  You may already have such a thing, but I invested in one of those thin hats that also covers your ears, which is designed to fit under a regular bike helmet.  And some nice, grippy gloves that work well when changing gears (regular winter gloves suck for that purpose!).  I've used both a couple of times this year.  The ones I got are meant for moderately cool weather, not really cold.  I've seen bikers out in the morning when it's frosty and downright cold out, and I could never do that myself but hell, more power to them!!  I know they make more hard-core gear that covers your whole face and some really warm gloves that still allow for good handling with the gears, but that's a bit beyond what I personally would make use of (obviously the die-hard cyclist who rides nearly year-round, it would be required!!).

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

If there was ever a time to just green light freeforall it's now. 10 consecutive days of rain and/or no snow is all but guaranteed. 

I did get a nice mt bike ride in today so a little lemonade in a lemon winter

Nice!!  I wanted to go out for a ride today, myself, but unfortunately was busy.  But you're right, a great day for a bike ride!  And beats the hell out of 45/rain.

1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Thats a cool pic! When a 1 in 50 year storm like that comes along, I would agree, its nice. But even then, its not Jan or Feb snow, winter is over. I think it was in like the 60's a few days later and the snow evaporates.

99% of March snow is called "if only" snow, as in "if only this happened during the winter".

That is a cool pic he posted, for sure.  And I remember that event in March 2015...wouldn't consider that a 1 in 50 year storm by any means, as we've had a number of similar ones of late.  Where I'm at on the northwest side of DC, we got 6.5" snow from that in about a 6-7 hour period, during daylight hours.  It was very cold the next day, didn't crack freezing (and on the day of the storm, temperatures fell through most of the day after starting in the 30s with some light rain).  Sure it warmed up a couple of days after, though not sure it was in the 60s that soon after.  And sure, it didn't stick around for a long time, but man what a few days that was!  There was even a light icing event in broad daylight (!!!) a couple of days before that March 2015 storm.  Point is, you don't have to have a March 1993 type event to "make it worthwhile".  But I understand, what one thinks about March snows vs. those in mid-winter, is subjective.  My point is, they're far from rare, and we've gotten several good ones in the past several years.

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

 ***But in my defense after reading through the thread I quite often lost track of the fact it was the disco thread and not the banter thread. ***  

Now after dealing with this issue for the last several years I am pretty much done complaining. If this is what people want then let them have it. It's not really what I want so more then likely my absences from the thread will become more frequent and lengthier. I am sure most wouldn't miss me. 

 

LOL!!  This is so true, I've actually had to check myself after wading through some of the comments, to be sure which thread I was actually in!

I really enjoy your posts, @showmethesnow, whether things look great or bleak.  You bring a boat-load of knowledge and information in your lengthy discussions along with the maps that you post to show/prove your points.  Sure, sometimes it seems a bit too optimistic or like blowing sunshine up our asses when things are crap.  But it's still nice to see and to read, because you base your thoughts on actual reasoning and not just making stuff up.  And it beats the hell out of "this winter sucks!" post after post.

1 hour ago, RDM said:

Don't feel it's an exaggeration, but that's a subjective thing.  Yes, there is some decent analysis and that is always good to see and learn from.  A substantial amount is off topic too and it adds up.  Not calling out the mods here at all, they more than enough to do and shouldn't be bothered.  Likewise, realize we're not in storm mode (unfortunately), but stand by the opinion much of it is/was banter.  Just prefer it to be here where it belongs so we we see there's a lot of unread msgs in the MR/LR it means something...  

Agree with what you're saying here RDM, and in your other related post.  I know there's a certain amount of leeway and back-and-forth in the main discussion threads, but it's gotten way out there this year, and to some extent even last year I think.  Unless there's a storm mode (if we actually *had* an event this year warranting that, haha!), it's kind of a free-for-all in there.  I know the mods do what they can to keep it generally in the ballpark, but we cannot expect them to constantly go clean up everything when there's not much going on.

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Another strong technical indicator of how bad this winter has been... Mosquito talk on Feb 9th

Hey, I've seen gnats around already on a few occasions!  And it's almost time for the 'Nats to play as well! 

2 hours ago, mappy said:

Thank you! She was discharged yesterday and will be staying with our mom for a few days. But she’s doing well all things considered. 

Glad to hear that, Mappy!  Good news indeed, and glad she's recovering...

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Just to get this out of the way first... I'm not a doctor or a scientist or have any professional training in the medical field. Ok, done with that.

I just want to point something out that really concerned me with your posts last night. Busts, duds, and lame winters are 100% out of our control. Always have been and always will be. That's actually what makes it fun for many of us. Digging in and trying to solve a complex riddle that nobody can change the outcome of. Do we all get frustrated, mad, or sad? Oh heck yea man. Like a boss. But that can be controlled at least a little right?

Having your days and/or weeks being semi-ruined because of something nobody can control is not a healthy cycle. This game is supposed to be fun for the most part. Yes, it tries patience and nerves. That's just normal human reaction to disappointment. What you are posting isn't the same and it makes me concerned as a friend. I'm not judging a damn thing and I'm certainly not looking down on anyone. We all got problems man. But we're human and supposed to right?

I have no magic advice here but I will say that there are signs that this nutty game could be having adverse consequences on a larger part of your life than it should. And I never want to see anyone be excessively sad for any reason ever. 

We all deal with our own demons and voices in our head. I'm no angel there and neither is anyone on this sub if I had to guess. Life stress will eat you alive if you let it. I keep very simple guidelines in my life to help me think through stuff when I'm "off". Consider using these if possible:

1. There 2 kinds of triggers of stress or depression or whatever in life and they are easily divided in 2 categories: those that you can control and those that you have zero control over. Weather is cleanly in the latter category. 

2. When dealing with things you have no control over you have to recognize that and accept it. Don't run yourself ragged over things you can't control.  It's a viscous cycle. Tell yourself you will not allow things you cannot control to steal your happiness and well being. Tell yourself this often. It helps. Trust me. 

3. For things you can control, action is medicine. Sounds easier said than done but happiness is a valuable commodity. A little action makes a big difference. If you're down on something but you don't put any effort in to fix it then it only gets worse and worse. You can control your sadness over snowfall at least a little right? I can't give advice on how to do this because we're each unique but it all starts with guideline #2.

Hey Bob...(and also indirectly to @Maestrobjwa)...you are pretty well spot-on here.  Obviously, nobody can control the weather (at least not yet, haha!), but we can control how we react or what we make of it.  For instance, I cannot stand extreme heat and humidity.  Upper 90s to 100+ for days on end are just wilting to me.  But I also know that's what you can expect here most summers at some point during JJA.  It is what it is.  Short of moving, can I do anything when we have a string of 95 for several days?  Can I stop it from happening?  Hell no.  But you deal with it, and I know it's not something that goes on for 6 months.  That's just an example.

I love snow.  Snowstorms.  Cold.  Always have.  Though I'm kind of at the age now that "extreme" cold is not exactly something I'd care for (and we don't get much around here anyhow, haha!).  Give me 25-30 for a high and heavy snow over 10 and dry cold any day.  I also know that here, "good" winters are a bonus for the most part, as are big events (by big, I mean 12" or more, just to throw a number out).  I'll echo you and say that sure, I get disappointed (even really ticked off at times!) when things don't go right in a given winter or if what looked to be a good snow event turns into nothing or we get rain instead.  But not so much to rule my life, and I try to avoid dumping any frustration in here clogging up main discussion threads with negative comments about how we suck.  I save that for the Panic Room or Banter...and usually, I'll be humorous about it.  Honestly, I love the Panic Room and just making fun of the stuff in there, going along with it, or laughing at the situation when our snow chances suck.  Best thing you can do, I think, to defray any disappointment.  There's so much else in "real" life to worry about (and to be happy about too!) than a snow event or winter gone awry.

This is the 19th winter I've been in this area.  Not the longest compared to some, sure...but a decent amount of time.  Through those years, there are on the order of 6 winters that I found truly memorable/interesting...as in winters that I'd love to see again or experience again:  2002-03, 2006-07, 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16.  And of those, only 2002-03 and 2013-14 were consistently cold and "wintry" throughout, or "door to door" one might say.  The others were mostly compressed into discrete time frames, and/or were back-loaded.  Even the Most Holy of All Winters (2009-10), was really two distinct periods...one in mid-December, and a 12-day stretch from Jan. 30-Feb. 10.  But damn, did we ever maximize those periods of good opportunity!  That's how it is.  Most of the other winters I've been here, little that was memorable, or maybe an event or so here and there.  Not bad winters per se, just nothing that stood out (you could say "average"??).  As for complete, utter duds...2001-02, 2011-12...and if this year does nothing more, it may top that list.  I feel fortunate that I've experienced four 20"+ events since I've been here, in that 19 year time frame...add to that a couple of 12"+ ones, and several solid moderate events.  Going by the "informal" definition of what people call a HECS, I've seen five of those.

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

No

 

snow

 

for

 

you.

33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If F stand for frontogenesis...then yes! 

...or "fuggedaboutit"!!!

36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And quite frankly I have to wonder if it might be going come next run...A jump like that ain't a cave. That's a "I don't know what the heck is gonna happen" jump...lol

Well, I only read what @Bob Chill mentioned about the 12Z GEFS ensembles, that they basically ran the gamut of possible outcomes with no consensus (good hits, rain, suppressed/nothing).  So not overly surprising that a deterministic op run would now show us getting rain whereas before it was suppressed.  So yeah, basically, the model saying "Who the F knows?"  Can a model drop the F bomb?? 

9 hours ago, mappy said:

Thank you! Yes she’s got a long road ahead of her but it could have been so much worse so we are all thankful for that this morning. 

Take care of yourself, Mappy...and your sister, however you can!  I know it's not offering much, but from a distance know that people in here (myself included) are thinking of you and your sister, and hoping for the best.  Give your little (or not so little, now!) girl a hug, and remember all that's good in life! 

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Don’t worry, you wouldn’t be alone. 

Spending a day at the beach??

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

ETA: after looping the member solutions there is a cluster with a slider. Pretty much an equal mix of slider, snow, mixed, and rain. Basically the GEFS says all options on the table and the model has no idea what will happen yet. 

Sounds like the Iowa Caucus results!! 

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Thank you! 

Hahahahaha I’ll let you know  

What a cutie!!! They grow up way too fast. Thanks for sharing! 

Thanks.  Oh, and BTW, I didn't see the mention about your sister being in an auto accident until looking back in here a bit more.  So sorry to hear that, and hope all will be OK!  

21 hours ago, mappy said:

Since people are posting snow pics, this one is from Feb 3 2014 

my kid is not that little anymore 

 

Totally cute!!  And yeah, they don't stay little forever.  Here's my daughter, from early Feb. 2007 (that really cold Feb!!), she was 3 at the time.  Now she's a junior in high school!!

24 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'll take #31 please... but you know it will likely end up being #6

Yeah, #6 would be one of those that @Bob Chill would want to kick in the nads!!  (Recalling his comment from weeks ago, when one day nearly all GEFS ensemble members had good or great snow over us, except for one!!!)

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm still not clear on the difference between BECS, MECS, and HECS (what amounts constitute each?). But I am going out on a limb and say...if we see anything that can be legit shoveled (that is 5"+) this year...it might just be a foot in the cities. Based on our history, a shocker in the next 8-12 days wouldn't surprise me as much (but then again slightly surprising given this regime) BUT...obviously, we gotta see if the +AO monster will relent just enough, and just long enough...when the precip nears. I'm still holding out hope, lol (but this is probably the most hostile regime to pull this off with...and I know we'll need some good fortune)

So essentially...we have 27-year history versus the most hostile +AO we've ever seen. Who shall win? We'll find out soon enough...

I'll give a loose definition of these here, others can expand on it as they see fit.  Actually, I don't think there's any "technical" definition of these acronyms that are used, they're really just related to the scale of a snow event.  So here goes...

MECS:  Major East Coast Snowstorm...usually refers to a solid moderate event that exceeds warning criteria.  You can think of this as your standard 4-8" or 6-10" event (there's also "SECS", Significant East Coast Snowstorm, which is somewhat lesser than a MECS).  Examples would be many of the events in 2013-14, March 2015, Jan. 30, 2010.

HECS:  Historical East Coast Snowstorm...sometimes referred to as a "KU" storm (Kocin-Uccellini, authors of the famed East Coast Snowstorms book).  These are...well, historical in nature!  Typically covering a wide region with major winter weather.  In terms of amounts, I always considered anything more than a foot over a large area, but more typically pushing 20"+.  You could get a HECS if there's blizzard conditions but not excessive snow here.  Examples would be the "big 3" in 2009-10, PD-II, 1993 Storm of the Century, January 2016, January 1996.

BECS:  Humorously, this would be a Biblical East Coast Snowstorm.  This is kind of mythical, and I suppose would mean getting a ton of snow, end of the world blizzard kind of deal!  It's usually an exaggeration, like when one model is giving 30-40" over DC in one of its runs, that sort of thing!

The rest of this winter?  I certainly wouldn't be hoping for a HECS or BECS of course!  But I don't think managing a decent MECS/SECS is totally out of the question sometime by mid-late March.

10 years ago today..."Snowmageddon" began (Feb. 5-6, 2010)!!  Here's a photo from early morning on the 6th that I took:

3 hours ago, jaydreb said:

How amazing it must be to be a weenie in Wyoming.  Biggest worry is whether blizzard warning will verify.  

 

 

Hell, that could almost be the ensemble forecast right before the 2016 blizzard!! 

But yeah, that is just...amazing!

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I can't find anymore within a half mile of my house 

Hahaha!  Yeah, I thought I noticed a paucity of cute, furry creatures the other weekend when I was up in the Rockville area...