Scarlet Pimpernel

We get the full gamut of precip types for next Tuesday in the LWX point forecast!  Everything but hail!  Now to be fair, at this point what else can you do, honestly?

Just now, Ji said:

lol i dont think the RGEM and GFS are showing the same storm. the GFS shows heavy snow and 15 for parts of the area 12z Tuesday

True.  I don't know what that is in the RGEM on Sun/Mon or when it started to appear.  Then again, the RGEM indicated 45" snow for us the other week (slight exaggeration!)...so whatever.  I take it the GFS doesn't have nearly that strong of a "follow-up" wave on Sun/Mon like that.  I take a bit of pause that the NAM shows a similar, though weaker, kind of thing that the RGEM depicts in that time frame.  Worth looking out for I guess.

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL. I thought it would be clear that it’s a graphics issue. Guess not.

The GFS thing is definitely a graphics issue.  But the RGEM actually does have warmer surface temperatures Sun/Mon and rain.

12 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Seems to be the system PSU mentioned that really hurts our chances of letting the HP funnel some colder air in. I think you can see the response from that system being much weaker on the NAM. Check out hr 84 for the NAM, core of the TPV cold is a fair bit farther west of the GFS yet the 850s are still more favorable. 

Haven't looked all that closely...is this only showing up in the regional  models suddenly today?  Don't recall that thing on Monday (or late Sunday) being mentioned until now.

2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

Looks like you are in one of the purple/pink columns. What's up with purple pink columns?! 

Game of Tetris??

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The RGEM

Waiting on @stormtracker to say "the RGEM can eat it!"...bet it's still  on his s*it list! 

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Glacial downsloping causing dryslots from Mappyland to Charlottesville?

Rare footage of prehistoric dinosaur weenies making their way to the Panic Room.  Apparently the Reaper caused them to go extinct!

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s trending south too 

Is that the one that was looking like a cutter, or at least well northwest of us?  I think the GFS still had it that way, not sure, but yeah this would be a change.

5 minutes ago, high risk said:

Definitely worth remembering that when it comes to freezing rain and temps in the 20s, even if model QPF drops from 0.4" to 0.1", it's still a high-impact event.

Very true, it doesn't take much ice at all especially if it really is that cold.  If anyone remembers the early March 2015 ice event (I think it was on the 1st, a few days before that snow we got), it was nothing heavy...light drizzle or rain, maybe some sleet as well as I recall.  Temperatures were also just below freezing, not as cold as what models are indicating for this Saturday.  Didn't accrue a ton of ice, but it was outright dangerous!!  In broad daylight, in early March no less.

ETA:  Experienced a really bad ice storm in Atlanta in Jan. 1999 (not the Super Bowl one the next year).  Decent precip rates just pouring into that cold air, and it accumulated quite a bit (can't remember exact amounts, but I'd say pushing half inch of ice or so at least some places).  Pine trees and those southern magnolias (which keep their leaves all year) with the huge leaves got absolutely shredded.

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I still don't get why p-type is an issue here...

I'm not sure how accurate this is, so take with a grain of salt...

I'd wager it's partly due to the fact that the (Arctic) cold here is pretty shallow.  We're not exactly in the "center" of it all.  It's apparently well-entrenched at and near the surface, at least this side of the Appalachians.  But we're sort of on the edge of the main Arctic push it seems as these storms approach, enabling the mid-levels to warm even as the near-surface digs in with cold.

10 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

So what is this?

A back yard that looks like it has some nice playground equipment?

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Agreed.  The storms read this forum and if they see a storm thread, they decide not to hit us.  If they don't see a thread, they talk amongst themselves and make the decision to hit us.  

Maybe the models are feeling verklempt!  They must talk amongst themselves!

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not time to mess around today but I briefly looked at the icon surface panels at 114-120 and then looked at surface temps. I was in CO in 1994 so didnt experience that wild winter. I remain very very intrigued for the next 7 days. Just wild what's being spit out daily now

Yeah, if we can't get a decent snow, I guess the next "best" thing in terms of interesting stuff would be sleet and ice!  Or I'd prefer that to 30s and cold rain at least.  Honestly, in the time I've been here (since 2001) I cannot recall a really good ice event with the exception of Feb. 2007 I think.  We've had some light ice accumulation here and there around the metro DC area.  But the sleet bomb in 2007 stands out to me most.  Maybe the sleet in March a couple of years back, too.

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is DC early Tuesday morning while the Shenandoah Valley is getting crushed. The GFS surface map shows this as sleet. When in fact it is ripping fatties. 

That is really close there around and just above 850mb, looks right at or a hair below 0.  I'd think rates would cool it, if they're good enough.  Not to over-analyze such details this far out, but yeah, that is still interesting.

Very interesting map of the snowfall reports from @MN Transplant showed, and the corresponding NAM nest from @high risk.  Definite cutoff as you get closer to the beltway.

I'm just inside the beltway on the northwest side of DC (Chevy Chase area), and got ~0.5" snow/sleet.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess my question is more about the general pattern being modeled...simply, why all the mixy cutters? Lol

Yeah, realized more of what you meant after what I wrote, LOL!  Sorry about that.  Not quite sure how to answer that, though.  I kinda agree with @psuhoffman, the trend has been less interaction of the NS shortwave with the SS, and these systems have tended to end up farther south, rather than plowing right through a big high with strong blocking.  Or at least the CAD hangs on a lot more than indicated farther out in time.

Obviously, snow would be preferable for any of these potential events.  But absent that, I'd certainly prefer a sleet-fest (or ice) over cold rain any day!

21 minutes ago, H2O said:

I have a patio  and it’s clean. It’s got a nice carpet. Short weave

...but not a Short Pump.

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now, this is probably my inexperience, but...I'm perplexed at all these sleet/ice solutions we're seeing despite below freezing temps. I wonder what's going on "under the hood", that is what in the pattern is causing us to have these storms modeled with warmer air aloft?

Check out the 850 temperatures.  They're above 0 nearly the entire time.  Not sure of any other levels.

ETA:  And south winds at 850 as well.

6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Nam is a snowstorm i81 and west for sat/sun.

And still hammering a sleet bomb with temps in the 20s DC/Balt and southeast.  But snow is maybe not that far to their west.

10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Give yourselves credit. At least maybe 6th or 7th grade. If you regress to fart jokes, then 5th is valid. 

And then advance to more clever double entendres when you grow up!!

27 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

My deck is black.

<walks out of the room>

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I have a double level deck. What does that win me? 

Uhhh...more people attending your parties?

Just now, mappy said:

dudes. lol

Just some people comparing outdoor deck sizes and how much they can hold at parties. 

6 minutes ago, snowfan said:

QPF for saturday

 

Is this for what is supposed to be the sleet bomb?

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

They ALWAYS look tasty for 4 days or more.  Same with the GFS...Same with the Euro.  F them all.  I'm about to go full fukushima /three mile island

Don't forget Chernobyl...