Scarlet Pimpernel

38 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Reaper opened a Five Guys franchise in the Panic Room? Cool! 

1 minute ago, high risk said:

          Yeah, it doesn't have a systematic cold bias overall, but it can run a bit cold in terms of trying to cool columns in marginal winter events with strong lift.     It's also worth noting that it can overdo the strength of the warm nose, usually by cranking up and veering the flow too much between 850 and 700.

           I know we're all looking for reasons to toss its solution that really minimizes the front end thump of snow Thursday.     While it's justifiable to note several times this winter when it has sniffed out some important trends, the NAM feels like a bit of synoptic outlier right now, although I would absolutely not put any money on that.  

Thanks, that makes sense.  I'm certainly not discounting the NAM solution out-of-hand at this point.  Thing is, as @Bob Chill mentioned, only a couple or so days ago this was looking like all but a straight-up rainstorm for much of the area, and it's now trended better, apparently (for wintry type precip).  In fact, before this initially fell apart a few days ago, I don't even recall the Thursday event being looked at as snow per se anyhow.  The indications were that Tuesday and Thursday could be significant icing events earlier on.  That there's now even a chance for some kind of snow before a flip to sleet/ice (or whatever) is a big change in the past couple of days.

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

yep its over. when the cold bias nam hates a storm...its done. Hello sleet bomb.

@high risk can verify this one way or another, but I don't think it's quite right to say the NAM has a cold bias?

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm still laughing at tracker's burger post. I've gone back to it like 5 times today just to chuckle. Most well crafted humor post of all of my 15+ years here. God knows I've seen a lot of funny things over that time too. 

It was a true masterpiece! Exquisite work of poetic art! Worthy of saving. 

Just now, stormtracker said:

I mean, its plenty cold, just going by the old rule that heavier rates aren't as "good" for accretion.  Lot of that could just run off if it's super heavy.  I dunno.  We might wanna ask one of those guys with the red tags to be sure.

Yeah, not sure what the precise interplay is between temperatures and rates for ideal accretion, when below freezing.  I'm sure the thermodynamics is a bit complicated when we start talking about those details.  Of course, if it were 15 degrees and pouring rain, that would presumably be different than, say, 31 and doing the same.

Just now, stormtracker said:

Quite the nasty ZR stomr at 96...but might be mitigated by heavy rates?   Anyway, GFS may even be too warm if we are using @high risk rule

What does it have for temps around that time at least compared to 12Z?

So...anyone else getting concerned about PSU's snow pack?? 

(All in jest, PSU!!)

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

G'dammit! I saw the euro for thurs then came here and found out there was was lettuce @ 850mb and a cheap white bread bun at the surface. Maybe next time

Not only that, but the burger was actually soy-based which completely ruins the mid-levels from the start!

Some photos... 

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@stormtracker straight up won the internet, dropped the mic, disrobed, and walked out of the room swingin' today with that post. Mindblowingly awesome.... lol. I try to be funny around here but that is some triple next level sh!t man. Wow

Agree. It was Shakespeareian, such as it is! Hell, Cicero or Marcus Aurelius couldn't have done better if they were here now! 

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Psuhoffman, how do you like your burgers and how could it be better?

 

This is excellent! Up there with @Jebman's epic rant years ago! 

Looks like mostly sleet now, but has gone back and forth between freezing rain and sleet most of the day so far.  Went for a Jebslide (@Jebman, I think that's an appropriate term for a Jebwalk in ice??), kinda dangerous out on areas that weren't salted.  Stayed mostly on the crunchy grass.  Just eyeing it, looks like we're pushing maybe close to 0.2" accumulated on some branches I would guess.  Hope to post photos when I have a chance later on at some point.

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

Funnel cloud, actually.

Hmmm, funnily enough! 

(seeing myself out, exiting stage left! )

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re discussing numerology. What do you think?  

Roman numerals!

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Apparently the warm layer is only 27" and not 2700' off the ground. Just another way showing ninas and winter wx hate us

So given that, if I put my car up on tall blocks I can avoid getting it ice covered!  Brilliant! 

Long range thread is getting interesting (or unhinged?) with PSU taunting/calling out Wentz for thinking that perhaps a rainy solution Tuesday would improve things for Thursday!  I see a cage match coming!!! 

24 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Quick question...if the pattern looks toast how many times a day would you like to be told that it does? For me I'd like it on a continuous loop 

I'd like that just about as much as watching a continuous loop of John Elway's " The Drive", Earnest Byner's "The Fumble", and Michael Jordan's "The Shot" over Craig Ehlo, all while getting a root canal!

(Saying all this as a Cleveland fan, LOL!!)

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

With everything that's shifted around on guidance the last few days, these solutions are the only ones that surprise me honestly. Mixy messy was totally where my head was at. Straight rain? Didnt really see that coming

Yeah that was a pretty quick turnaround.  I wasn't expecting really any snow this upcoming week, but was sort of counting on what you say...a mix/icy mess for a couple of events with low-level cold air pretty well entrenched.

2 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Man it been a long time since I saw those in general meteorology 201, lol.  Is there a key.  What is the upside down Star Trek  thingy, #18?  Is that the snow anus symbol?  Sorry belongs in banter, to keep this relevant, long range looks Icy...maybe?  But probably not.

Could be like #67!!!

2 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I'd like to see us get back to maps with these symbols    

Oh hey, you found the Rosetta Stone!!

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Why post a surface map in Celsius?

 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

This.  Everybody knows they should post in American.  

Can someone post the surface wind speeds in furlongs per fortnight, please??

Just now, BristowWx said:

Tuesday looks more impressive with ice to me for DC area on 12z ICON.  looks also a tad colder than Saturday/Sunday deal.  you see that too?

Yeah, sort of noticed that.  And Tuesday is looking more like a Monday night into early Tuesday event according to the ICON.

FWIW, the 12Z ICON has ~0.25-0.50" or so generally across the region through later Saturday night.  Stripe of 0.50" cuts right through the DC area.  The amounts are not as high or as expansive compared to 06Z, but still (and that could just be run-to-run variation).  Temperatures generally in the 25-30 degree range.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Maybe you should move away from just clicking the play button on pretty weather movies and take a look at soundings, 850 temps/wind direction, and maybe go straight crazy and consider 700mb panels too. I mean every single answer to every single model question is available on the same site everyone uses. 

So the question is, does anyone look at anything other than pretty wx movies? I'll go out on a limb and say few do and it's a shame. That's why every storm is a freakout circus. Cuz pretty wx movies dont even scratch the surface of a marginal event. Which is 80% of the events here. 

Good points.  I admittedly do click through those ptype maps initially for a quick overview...but mostly to get some idea of the surface positions, extent of precip and how it moves, etc.  I already knew that the Tuesday potential was likely to involve a lot of ice, so then immediately looked at the surface temps (cold!) and other parameters above that level.  And sure enough, it's clear the algorithm wasn't handling it right.  No need for anyone to freak out for sure.

We get the full gamut of precip types for next Tuesday in the LWX point forecast!  Everything but hail!  Now to be fair, at this point what else can you do, honestly?