MAG5035

39ºF here this afternoon so far and cloudy with 26ºF dewpoint. Surprisingly it got all the way down into the upper teens this morning (17.5ºF). Not very much snowpack melt, which is currently a 3-6” hard pack in the yard. 

Since I got this new weather station rolling just after midnight on the 15th of Jan I don’t have full January monthly data but the mean temperature the last 2.5 weeks from then til now is 19.7ºF, and there were a couple 24 hour periods (midnight to midnight) that averaged in the single digits. It’s been pretty cold here lately. 

1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

I feel like MAG, KTX, and myself are going to be in a weird spot with this one being not far enough NW to get the good stuff but not east and south enough for all the liquid. It's tough to tell. 

Yea it always is with this type of an event. I kinda disagree with CTP minimizing the ZR threat in favor or a more rain to sleet/snow. I think once that near 1040 high gets positioned just to our north, surface cold is going to try to bleed deeper into central PA before the 925mb-800mb layer cools enough to at least allow for more sleet… which will allow for a longer period of freezing rain. We’re usually lamenting not having a stronger high with these messy systems and we actually have a decent one eventually during this event. We all start this main wave on Thur as rain but I think you guys up there see more frozen (sleet than eventually snow) and a shorter ZR period for a transition, while this area down here could be more 50/50 ZR and sleet turning to T-2” type snow at the end. Then the big thing for the Sus Valley is going to be determining how much ice and sleet can accumulate towards the tail end as the snow threat has been pretty minimal there and the snowier models (GFS and Euro) have really tightened the gradient on the SE side of the swath the last couple runs.

Here’s what the 12z HREF had for freezing rain, it’s a model that CTP seems to utilize a good bit in short/near term.. which is another reason I’m kind of surprised the ZR is being downplayed. It has a pretty widespread area of .25-.50” (warning criteria ice)

The model only goes out to 48hr and the event isn’t over yet at 12z Friday, so here’s it’s positioning of the p-types at the end of the run. 

I’ve seen a couple snarky comments on the last couple postings that CTP has put out regarding the upcoming event. A couple comments pertaining to why not put up ice watches, etc etc. I think the CTP criticism that takes the cake that I’ve seen today is our local met going after them about the meaning of Groundhog Day.. @Atomixwxshould get a kick out of that lol.

At any rate, CTP has only issued watches in the northern tier counties to this point because that’s likely that only part of the region where warning criteria snow/ice (mainly snow) is a near certainty as it pertains to the whole guidance suite. The rest of the region is a crapshoot at the moment. With the heavy snowfall swath mainly NW, the big issue is how much of every other p-type falls before any potential change to snow NW to SE towards the end. A warmer or colder scenario could both preclude warning criteria icing in the central/upper Sus Valley counties. They also still have time to observe a couple more runs of models as this primary wave of this two pronged system is slated for Thursday. I expect watches to be expanded some overnight as things are starting to zero a little bit on an icing swath that has a good chance of meeting criteria. These type of p-type issues are going to be best resolved with short/near term high res guidance that is just starting to get all the way in range of this. The other thing to consider is the longevity of the primary wave. The 0z 12k NAM for example does get a changover to snow all the way into the Sus Valley but runs out of precip, while the 3k NAM which only goes out to 60 looked like it had a longer lasting event. Just a lot of variables to this. 

We go through these wave or waves running a pressing frontal boundary type events at least once a winter. They always suck trying to nail them down. I’d almost rather watch another blizzard go up I-95…. Almost. 

1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

So you noticed, huh?  I was just reviewing the breakdown of precip volume and types.  That little lighter color in the middle of Cumberland county is about 1.11".  According to the GFS I will first have 1.23" of plain rain.  By around 9pm Thursday evening my surface temperature falls below freezing.  Then I have 1.11" of heavy freezing rain while the temperature continues to fall into the 20s.  That 1.11" of freezing rain produces 0.63" of ice accrual, which, if materialized, would easily be classified as a severe ice storm.  Then as an end of storm bonus, it changes over to snow around 9:00am Friday and finishes off with 3" of snow.  The total qpf of everything for the event is 2.12" according to the Pivotal maps, however, adding up the individual liquids comes to around 2.50".  So, I don't know how they calculate that, but maybe @MAG5035could explain??

If this played out verbatim there would be some winter chaos everywhere.  We'll see if the GFS continues to insist on this colder solution at 0Z.

 

Hmm I’m not sure, the WeatherBell total QPF maps also had the 2.12”. Something’s lumped together probably. Some of that 1.11” heavy freezing rain is likely part of the the 1.23” of plain rain. Adding the 1.23 of plain rain and 0.63” ice is 1.86” and adding approx 3” of snow which was about 10:1 even on Kuchera comes out near that 2.12”. Either way it’s a lot of p-types to sort out of a lot of QPF. 

Basic 18z Euro breakdown. It’s about as good if not better in C-PA for snowfall vs the GFS now. Good part of the LSV sees ice.  Only bigger difference is in the transition. GFS is a prolific sleet maker while the Euro is more of a ZR to snow transition with much less sleet. Personally I think with this setup there will be a zone of measurable sleet somewhere but that may come at the expense of snow…especially in the central counties where both models do manage advisory snow at the tail end. 

Euro vs GFS sleet:

 Euro total QPF:

 Euro total Freezing rain accum

Euro total snowfall:

37 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

DT says the gfs is wrong. He Says with the 2nd low moving sw to ne the south winds won't let the artic front push south 

I want to see the map with all the start times for all the different p-type transitions. 

Here’s the morning take from CTP. Haven’t seen any real breakthroughs with overnight or 6z guidance. Still in the same camps with the GFS op most generous with frozen. Euro/Euro EPS/Canadian seem fairly close having the snow swath further northwest. GEFS sort of in the middle (6z did step back some snow means in the central vs 0z) but still showing a more robust transition. They all show transition for most/all with varying amounts of ice/wintry mix. I still tend to think the GFS has the right idea progressing the front and cold air, which the Euro had that idea a couple days ago. That may not ultimately be enough to get good snows into the Central/Sus Valley, but it would ramp up the mix/icing potential. GFS and also the NAM (which doesn’t cover the whole event yet) have pretty mean looking swaths of sleet accumulations while the Euro has very thin sleet zone but a good bit of freezing rain. Tons of stuff to consider here in addition to where these swaths might end up. 

Also to keep an eye on, short range stuff like the NAM are starting to pick up on ZR to kick the event off Wed night in central/eastern PA. Given how cold it has been, I’d bet on that scenario especially in areas with snowpack. Some spots could actually have a ZR/Rain/more ZR/mix/snow type of itinerary with this event. 

Quote

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong divergence along the right-entrance region of a powerful
upper jet (~170kts centered over the northern Great Lakes) will
combine with low-to-mid level frontogenesis and increasing
moisture/anomalous PWs to support a prolonged period of mixed
precip spreading west to east across CPA during this period.
While POPs are easily 100%, it`s the particular details that
will matter the most and will ultimately determine storm total
snow and ice amounts. Given the detail uncertainty at this
range, we followed NBM ptype probs closely and utilized blend of
WPC/NBM SLRs to derive snow and ice amounts. The result
signaled potential for heavy mixed wintry precip across the
northern tier with rain to ice/snow transition likely farther to
the southeast as the front traverses the CWA. Max snow 6" or
more is fcst in Warren and McKean Counties trending to <1" to
the I-81 corridor. Zone of max icing potential appears to be
between PA/NY border and I-99/I-80 corridor with swath of fzra
accums 0.01-0.25". How much sleet occurs within pytpe transition
will certainly impact the snow/fzra accums. Prob snow/ice
graphics and WPC WSO product supports issuance of winter storm
watch in Warren and McKean Counties at this time, with
additional winter headlines likely to be issued in the next 24
to 36 hours. Winter wx impacts should commence in the northern
tier late Wednesday night and shift to the south through
Thursday night/AM Friday. Mean QPF amounts are in the 1-1.5"
range with the longest duration of plain rain in the lower
Susquehanna Valley. With the moderate to heavy QPF and warming
trend peaking on Thursday with maxT +5-10F above normal across
south central PA, there is the possibility for some localized
ice jams that could lead to minor flooding. Something else to be
aware of for this upcoming, longer-duration multi-precipitation
type winter wx event. Temps fall from north to south Thursday
afternoon through Friday with some freeze up issues possible.
There could be a period of wintry mix in the lower Susq Valley
as precip comes to an end/shifts to the east early Friday.
Locations impacted by snow and ice will have temperatures remain
below freezing through the weekend

Definitely variable temps this morning around here. KAOO at 16ºF but most obs in and around town are in the single digits and it’s 7.5ºF here currently

Yea this event looks like a pretty big mess incoming. We will warm up especially Wed/Thur ahead and during the first portion of this system. Def not going to be a tremendous warm-up but some of the southern tier probably gets to 50  or so at some point (sufficient to get the AC fired up down there lol). Big thing I’ve noticed is despite the modeling differing and switching around with how it presses mixed and snowfall into the state, they’ve been building/pushing a stronger high more directly to our north. Initially it looked like the main body of high pressure was going to send the cold southward into the central US and not immediately push east as much. But now we have pretty much everything building 1040+ mb high pressure eastward just above Lake Huron roughly centered in the Ontario/Quebec border region. There’s way too much cold available in this pattern with a stronger high positioned like that, so I’m not buying an all rain event from this, or thunderstorms or whatever. 

There’s also no low that really cuts west of us on models/ensembles now, so this has tended a bit more progressive.  The big question I’m considering right now isn’t whether this cold presses and changes things over to a mix for at least a good portion of folks in here. It’s if we can get the depth of cold necessary in time to turn to any accumulating snow of substance. I do think any really significant snow chances generally favor NW and maybe some of NC PA at the moment, but I also think everyone sees some amount of ice/sleet as well.. potentially significant amounts for some. The setup screams favorability for a long swath of significant ice/sleet along the frontal boundary.

4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

End of January question for the weather masses:

We close out the month with the sad reality that we've received 33% of the amount of snow that Atlantic City has season to date. There's been more snow north, west, south, and east of our area...

So - would you prefer a winter like this with lots of tracking with little ROI; or, would you rather have little to track so that everyone is losing out?

Me? I would pick the first option though admittedly it's getting a little shaky. This past weekend's storm started to wear on me a little. Even though we got exactly what I expected, this winter was to be lacking in big east coast storms. We JUST missed out on a big kahuna. Even Philly received about 8" (7.5" at PHL, 8.9" in NE Philly) Shift that 100 miles west and I wouldn't be asking the question that I did this morning. 

February is our snowiest month of the year so there's that...but there's no guarantee that we'll get anything. After 15-20 FEET of snow fell on the Sierra during the last half of December, they are going to finish January with a complete shutout and nothing on the horizon. Some winters, even snowy places just don't snow. 

Will this be a winter of lots of frustration and near misses or will things even out as Blizz suggests?

I’m just shy of 20” so far this winter here, which is fine and I’m glad that I’ve been able to hang onto a pack for a few weeks. But that’s also just shy of 50% of what I expect for an average season here so there’s some work to be done. On the other hand, it’s also about 3” ahead of the whole 2019-2020 winter at this point.

Give me the winter with tracking opportunities. More often than not things normally even out to some degree eventually. I’d rather be nailing down where an event is going within a good overall pattern over tracking down the actual favorable pattern or window of opportunity just to have a chance at snow. Even in good patterns a specific location isn’t going to make out on every event.

Here’s the NOHRSC snowfall for the season to date, which comes with a legend and numbers. Pretty sure this is an estimate derived from model analysis/satellite so the individual numbers at stations might not be what’s officially reported. It’s usually in the ballpark though. 

Final total was 1.4” I measured very early this morning. There was a nice little fluff band around 3-4am that added the extra. Temp is only 16ºF currently with a dewpoint under -6ºF, certainly a sign of an actual arctic airmass in place. Will have to see if I can get my 3rd below zero low this month tonight, the wind might keep that from happening. 

Well today’s Canadian and especially the Euro perfectly illustrate my point yesterday about not sleeping on that late week storm. Heck the Euro has 6+ of snow in a large portion of PA along with the ice referenced above. 

Still some light snow blowing around here. I did reach an inch for this event. Temp 17ºF. 

Finally back into some snow falling, and this snow globe has bigger flakes this time lol. Should have some better luck accumulating if this patchy snow sticks around for a bit. Surfaces like the cars and the deck were frozen back over by dusk and temp is back down to 26.6ºF.

Some additional thoughts going forward… I wouldn’t completely sleep on the next bigger weather system slated late next week being just a straight up big warm up and rainmaker… especially in the more interior portions of C-PA but even region-wide too.

First feature of note is mid-week a pretty strong low is slated to track well north of the Lakes and tries to drag a frontal boundary which is likely what the main system will run on. Euro seems more concise with one main wave and GFS a bit drawn out with an additional wave running that eventually pulls the cold boundary and turns a lot of C-PA to ice and frozen just prior to fresh arctic air blasting into PA . There’s also a lot of cold and high pressure on the playing field. While main focus in terms of the strongest high presses cold more into the Central/Mountain West US via a western trough that briefly develops in the western US.. there is half decent high pressure present modeled to our north. Given the range, the globals don’t generally see the CAD as well so there’s the possibility of a messy front end of the event. Most of interior C-PA has an established pack too. The low tracks are pretty close too, really. The 18z GFS for instance takes the eventual main surface low thru PA while the 12z Euro was up into the Lower Lakes and then up the St Lawrence. Timing and progression are going to be important…wouldn’t take too much in what has been a progressive winter for this to be more progressive and suddenly have us more on the better side of the low. The GEFS currently presents a plethora of p-types (at various timing differences) across all of PA. So I’ll be keeping an eye on that since this is still in the 5-7 day range. With all that said, we are going to experience a moderating trend mid week next week (mainly Tues-Thur timeframe). 

Getting further into February, I really don’t see any reason to not have more chances at snow, even though we may have more changeable weather (ups and downs). We’ll continue to go as the Pac goes as the NAO/AO has generally been positive and continues to stay that way.The AO does dip negative for a time later next week, but generally speaking we don’t have an established blocking pattern in that realm. The big keys are the continued -WPO and neutral to negative EPO maintaining that Pac ridge and continuing to provide a cold source region that will continue to push cold air into the CONUS. I was watching the PNA as it is going to go negative some next week, which is why we moderate as ridging builds in the East. This is gonna be nowhere near the magnitude of the -PNA in December and it is forecast to quickly go back into positive territory some. 

The other thing I’m watching is the MJO. It is currently in the null phase (circle of death, etc).. basically right now it’s in a position where it’s not exerting a significant influence into the Mid-Latitudes. Which is fine.. the ECMWF pretty much keeps it there indefinitely. The JMA and NCEP stuff eventually get it into phase 3 (still a cold phase) and the NCEP spaghetti plot does show some potential of this to perhaps eventually run into 4 and so forth. With the other regular teleconnections staying pretty serviceable for now (esp on the Pac side) the only thing I really worry about is a new stronger MJO pulse running the 4-5-6 gauntlet… especially in a full blown mature Nina. Something like that would obviously likely ensure our overall chances of winter weather are much lower during such a period. Fortunately, A. That’s not really showing currently, just a concern of mine and B. Even if this were to start showing say within the next 6-10 days it would be probably be after mid Feb before we saw any sensible pattern changes. So going forward, yea we’re not going to win all the storms and probably warm up here and there.. but there remains plenty of cold in the pattern and plenty of chances down the road at least the next couple weeks, IMO. 

1 hour ago, paweather said:

Was this storm ever a hit on the models here?

There were a couple scattershot runs in the 8-10 day range that got us maybe, otherwise this thing was a non-event even in most of New England until inside D5 when it finally started phasing into a bigger storm on all guidance. Then once it was seen consistently everything with the coastal was mostly 95 corridor east. As I mentioned multiple times the last few days this northern branch system and frontal wave pressing to phase in was the key to us seeing at least widespread snowfall… which we do have but just not the rates. We rarely do well when the coastal doesn’t start organizing in earnest til it’s off the NC/SC coast (well off it in this case). This needed to start happening in the SE US/Gulf region. 

Well I’d call it a snow globe out there since late this morning but I’d probably end up returning the snow globe for one that has bigger flakes in it. It’s been mostly a steady light pixie dust with temps steady around 28ºF.

With the fine snow and light rates, the little bit of solar insulation there was has been enough to keep accums off of every non-snow surface except the glass table on my deck and my snowboard… which both somehow have about a half inch of new snow. At least it’s accumulating where it counts (on the snowpack) haha. 

That 0z Euro run that just dropped has to be one of the most insane runs the southern New England folks have ever seen. The low passes just a hair outside the benchmark and tucks right into the Gulf of Maine. 

And I’m sitting here just hoping tomorrow I get 1/42nd of what Boston has on that Kuchera map lol. 

Well looks like the 3k NAM is a good bit more aligned with the 12k in terms of delivering 30+ to a large portion of SNE now, so there’s that lol. Taunton has to be considering blizzard warnings for eastern Mass. I’d say some place in and around that NWS office or generally in between Boston metro and Cape Cod inland of the coast somewhere would be a great place for anyone wanting to do a snow chase. There’s going to be monster rates/ratios under any meso bands there. 

Main difference back our way is the models are starting to go back towards solidifying the initial snowfall breaking out across PA, and a couple like the RGEM are getting the back edge of the actual deform shield from the coastal low into the fringes of the Sus Valley. That was my original vision of how to make this system work for us or least the majority of us since most live the Sus Valley in this forum. Having a decent WAA wave of snow from the northern system phasing in and transitioning some right into the some of the deform when the coastal explodes. 

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

That’s gotta be the most confusing start time map I’ve ever seen. The SE quarter of PA got 4/5 start times criss crossing and whatever snow develops there tomorrow is gonna be starting way earlier than all of them lol. 

I really haven’t been a big fan of this storm threat in our region and just figures that it came back west enough a couple days ago to have to acknowledge the possibility. Although, I felt that the best chance of success was going to hinge on the developing wave of snow with the northern system and frontal boundary and if the storm phased early enough that the coastal wave could keep snow going for a time in the Sus Valley and eastern PA and provide a respectable event. The now presumed later explosive development of the coastal mostly takes that away and we’re left mainly with what the initial wave of snow can do, which will be during the day tomorrow. I’ll note that I’m not going to rule out York/Lancaster (and far eastern PA) catching some of the deform shield from the coastal.

At any rate…. Initially the SW flow makes for the downsloping shadow east of the mountains seen on the higher res models but eventually precipitation does generate further east in PA as the coastal low starts taking shape and you start getting some easterly flow. So there will be flakes to be had probably for most of us late tonight thru tomorrow (west to east) but big question will be how much it will amount to. Models like the 3k NAM, RGEM, and the HRRR do show something, with the RGEM being the best showing a more widespread 1-2” with a bit more in York/Lancaster since it’s been pretty far inside with the coastal. So a general light snowfall is still on the table, but we’ll see how well this northern branch system does. There’s already precip in western PA from it and I’m about to get some echoes overhead (though I’m dry with a 28ºF temp and 9ºF dewpoint)

56 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Meanwhile in the real world: It's -5°F currently. While not as impressive as the -17°F I experienced picking the girlfriend up at work last week in Houtzdale, still damned cold. This month has honestly given me every bit the winter experience I desire on an annual basis, minus a major, double-digit snow. 

Hopefully the rest of the forum gets a nice snow before spring so we all get the fun.

You must be in a hot spot up there haha, there’s three weather stations in and around Philipsburg on the Ambient site and two of them were just recently under -17ºF and the other is like -14ºF. There’s a South Philipsburg one on Mesowest that was -14ºF. 

It bottomed out at -5ºF here about half an hour ago, which is pretty impressive for being in town. Still about -2ºF. Impressive cold all up and down the 99 corridor as you can see on the above map and also the Mesowest map below.

34 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Hey @Blizzard of 93!

Look what we have to look forward to after our rain storm next week!  This is Day 9-10 where it appears there is a battle going on between the arctic trying to come back in while fighting off the southeast ridge...

 

Yea the 0z GFS really lined em up in it’s long range. I saw like two other events after that one. I’ve had thoughts about the pattern coming up but had been waiting to get much into it til we saw what this coastal was gonna do. I’ll probably elaborate more tomorrow but generally I think that while this pattern is going to shuffle around next week and give us what looks to be a 2-3 day warmup,  I believe at least for now we’ll maintain a regime that’s going to give us chances through at least the first couple weeks of Feb.

Bouncing between +1-2ºF so far here in town. Already several meso stations below zero up and down the 99 corridor again much like last Friday Night. There’s a -6ºF near Claysburg (south of Altoona) and a -8ºF near Stormstown (just west of State College). 

Quite cold tonight here, already down to 8ºF. 

1 minute ago, canderson said:

The Euro to me is overamped. (Which seems to be a trend) 

Well on the other hand, we were sizing up 10+ in all the Sus Valley around the D5 timeframe leading up to the 1/16-17 storm and the end game from that was the 980mb low literally going right over my head haha.

Yea that’s probably not happening with this storm but the Euro take is definitely easily in the realm of possibility, or even closer to the coast than that. It depends on the degree of phasing and how quickly it happens. Additionally, this initial area of snowfall that develops with the northern energy is still showing and I personally think with a major amplification like this that this will eventually start showing better QPF wise the closer we get, provided we don’t see a major setback in guidance back towards what it was showing a couple days ago.